JBL XXX – Preseason Power Rankings…
Well gentlemen, here we are, just a week away from the JBL’s 30th season. Amazing to think how long some of us (and really the majority of us) have been doing this basketball pool. Some with more success than others of course but yet we keep coming back for more. And really, the time from JBL draft night to the start of the regular NBA season might be one of the best times of the year. Why? Cause everyone is level. Everyone has 750 points in the standings. Everyone has hope. Everyone thinks they’ve drafted a team that could win the toughest Fantasy championship in all the land. And then the NBA season starts and reality kicks in….
As is tradition, I will now provide my annual Godfather preseason rankings. Last year I called French, Golden, Chilliwack, Bangkok and Maui as top 5 teams. Chilliwack and Maui were devastated by injuries and fell from contention. The Kok hung around for awhile but eventually fell victim to Seoul mind tricks. Idaho jumped into 2nd as the team he drafted last season were all traded away in a couple of weeks and Cali exceeded all expectations and found a nice cozy home in the upper echelon of the final standings.
So, what about this year? How does it look? This will be very difficult to do as we never know about injuries and now we’ve added the dreaded Covid factor into the equation. I heard rumblings through Woj and Shams that many JBL owners were factoring in which players are most likely to get covid (ie. Lou Williams at the strip club). So, my rankings are based on the roster you have right now, using my projections, while also trying to factor in the injuries your team is dealing with to the start the season as well as your activity levels in the pool. (ie. I will call this the Idaho factor since he makes 37 trades a season). Don't shoot the messenger essentially, we're all here for the fun of it. And if you feel different about these rankings, please post your thoughts below as it always makes for good banter.
Without further ado….here we go.
#1 – French Lick
What can I say about the team that has won 4 of the last 5 titles? Oh I know, the one year French didn’t win, he finished 2nd. What more do you want to show French has figured out the secret sauce of the JBL? His 4 keepers were all very good values and that can be a real key to winning the JBL. We all know that the budget is $260 but with great keepers, French was drafting with a $325 budget. We know that Simmons, Tatum, Brown and Robinson would go for WAY more at auction so French is ahead of the game to begin with. There was also a very telling moment in the auction for those on the zoom call. At one point, as French and Golden were in a bidding war over a player the mighty Bangkok stated, “Should we be taking note that French and Golden are in a bidding war over this guy?” Interesting comment. And yes, you should take note.
Why French can win:
French is stacked. Top to bottom. He does everything well. He knows what he’s doing and has really good players. I really don’t need to go through the list. It’s a balanced team where the highest price guy is $34 bucks. Nothing more to say. French is the team to beat. Again.
Why French won’t win:
Injuries to Porzingis and Warren turn out to be more significant than projected. Maybe Chris Paul in PHX doesn’t work out as planned. And of course, the old injury bug finally strikes in French Lick. Do Jordan and Green reach their projections? They are both aging and maybe don’t find their mojo again. Will Thibs hold back the blossoming Robinson? They are some cracks here that could come into play. We’ll have to wait and see how it goes but recent history shows us French will be in contention.
#2 – Golden
I always seem to like my team coming out of most auctions – which hasn’t proved to be very good over the last couple of years. Last year I was struck down by injuries with both Kyrie and Otto flaking out while John Collins was busted for juicing. Can’t win when your best players miss games (ask the Wack). Golden is hoping to avoid any major injuries this go around and rely on a well-balanced team that should perform well in all 7 categories. Adebayo, Nurkic, and SGA again should all provide more value than what their JBL salary is. Aldridge, DeRozan, and Middleton add to a strong core. Solid but unspectacular guys like Curry, White, Fournier and Smart should provide support for this currently deep roster.
Why Golden can win:
The team stays healthy and the big names (Aldridge and DeRozan) remain in situations to put up similar stats. Breakout candidates White, Clarke, and Bazley perform well.
Why Golden won’t win:
DeRozan, Aldridge, and Fournier are traded to teams where their performance drops. Breakout candidate Bazley underperforms and the Golden ‘special water pond’ that contaminated John Collins last year strikes again.
#3 – Brussels
Despite the chat room being down on this squad, this is a very deep and talented roster. The only slight weakness, in terms of categories, I see on the surface could be in 3PT%. This team is very deep with Doncic, PG13, Kawhi, Sabonis, FVV, Wood, Bridges, and Horford as the backbone. This team has requisite late round guys like Bridges, Thybulle and Garland who could have breakout years for this squad. I like what Brussels has done here. He appears to be trying to model his ways after his good buddy French. I think we can safely say the days of Brussels and French hooking up on 10 player deals are over and done with.
Why Brussels can win:
The three-headed (P-cubed) monster of big men (Plumlee, Poeltl, and Powell) all reach their lofty projections. Adding quality production from these big men only solidifies the core.
Why Brussels won’t win:
The 3 headed monster of big men don’t hit. And what if the Clippers duo of Kawhi and PG13 don't work out? Another possibility could be Timmy getting in the way of himself. Trader Tim loves to trade. But can he resist the temptation? Can he hold back where/when necessary?
#4 - Chilliwack
Another team I really like coming out of the auction. Benny is clearly working a 3PT% punt right now as his only deep marksmen appear to be KAT and Powell. This is another deep team that has a lot of quality from 1 to 15 on the roster. The wildcard in the Wack’s success is actually his former MVP – Mr. Harden. Where does James play this season? Does he remain in Houston? Or does he go elsewhere? What kind of numbers does the Beard put up on another team? I would imagine whether he’s in Philly or Brooklyn he will still be putting up huge numbers. That’s why I’m calling Harden the steal of the draft (for big names) at his $48 dollar price tag. Considering guys like Vucevic, Butler, and Beal all went around the same price, Harden feels like a bargain. And yes, his 3PT jacking doesn’t help – but when you’re scoring 30ppg and getting 125 steals and 60 blocks from a guard position – you’ve got a good deal.
Why Chilliwack can win:
The Wack finally stays healthy and now has some depth to work with. He’s got a lot of ‘middling’ big men and if they work out he will get the big man stats he needed. The Wack could/should have at least four 20ppg guys and is very strong in all the categories. If the Wack can even get to be a middling 3PT% team then this could be his year.
Why Chilliwack wont’ win:
His middling bigs (Boogie, Theis, Holmes, Zubac, Favors) don’t pan out. There are injury, age, and timeshare concerns with those guys that could factor in here.
#5 - Seoul
Another strong draft from Seoul in my eyes. We battled on a number of players (Adams, Tobias, Lavine, Collins) so this squad has a lot of guys that were on Golden’s radar. We know Seoul is good for a couple of trades with the Kok to get his better players so I would imagine this Seoul squad does change quite a bit over the year.
Why Seoul can win:
Zion and his band of merry men stay healthy and match projections. This team boasts potentially six 20ppg guys. They can rebound and shoot so there is lots to like with this team.
Why Seoul won’t win:
The ATO on this squad projects to be dead last. That’s not good. Also, does this squad have enough blocks? Will Zion stay healthy and how does that pairing work with Adams? How does Collins fit in with the suddenly deep ATL roster? Does Kyle stay in TO and can he stay healthy? Can the role players (Rozier, Jones Jr, Zeller, Hernangomez) make enough of an impact when called upon?
#6 - Idaho
Again, as mentioned above, the roster Idaho drafted will be vastly different in a few weeks time. He’s already moved on from Westbrook and Nunn (which was a good deal for Idaho). And we know Idaho works the waiver wire and makes countless trades so this team has a load of potential to move up in the rankings. This is a deep team with a lot of depth but there are some injury concerns already with JJJ to start the season.
Why Idaho can win:
It’s finally his year. He’s been saying it’s his year for many years, so why not this year? Idaho will turn over the roster where needed. He seems to win trades when he makes them (maybe he wears us down so much that we just give in?). Idaho could win it if he turns the weaknesses of this squad into strengths. Plus, as mentioned, this is a deep roster and it should be able to manage through a couple injuries if needed.
Why Idaho won’t win:
The JBL Gods are listening. I don’t love the percentages of this team right now and I think the ATO is weak as well. What does Idaho do with the 3PT jackers like Markkanen, Gordon, and now Carter Jr? Outside of Ayton, is there a player on this roster that will shoot over 50%? I honestly wouldn’t want Idaho to draft a team that he loved from the get-go – cause that would leave our Inbox empty. That said, imagine the chat room if Idaho ever wins this thing.
#7 – Bangkok
Anytime the Kok gets pegged in the 7-hole I’m sure the Wack will pipe in with some witty comments about the Kok’s average finish in the JBL over the years. But I’ll leave that to the Wack to chime in on. I’m here to talk about this Kok team that is top heavy. They can shoot FG%, rebound and block. All strong in my opinion. He’s got the big boys, Giannis, Jrue, the Headmaster Jamal Murray, Pascal and OG and Mr. Whiteside. All good picks if they perform up to potential. The concern for me is the depth of this team. Do we know what Luke Kennard, Josh Hart, Cedi Osman, Jaxson Hayes, Hunter and others are going to provide week in and week out? Not yet anyways. I like Donte and Troy Brown as upside guys but I’m still left with some questions about the guys in the 9-15 spots on this roster. My favourite youngster on this roster is definitely Malachi Flynn.
Why Bangkok could win:
The big boys are awesome and these depth guys have big, breakout seasons. Wiseman wins ROY and others step up in big ways and Mr. Whiteside carries over the success he had last year in PDX.
Why Bangkok won’t win:
The team’s depth doesn’t pan out. The team doesn’t look to be strong in 3PT% or ATO at this point.
#8 – Cali
Cali is coming off a 5th place finish from last season when I didn’t like the looks of the team at all coming out of last year’s auction. This year, it’s much better, but I still have questions. To me, this is looking at the all comeback roster. Cali is counting on big years from Durant, Oladipo, Otto Porter, Capela and others to have big years after missing time due to injuries last season. I like the 3-headed monster potential of AD, KD, and Clint Capela. Much like last year’s team that didn’t care about scoring, I’m wondering if this current version has enough PTS as well. And the ATO in this group appears concerning as well. Cali’s 2 rookie selections are both having decent preseasons and could factor into this roster on a weekly basis.
Why Cali could win:
Passion and dedication. Who doesn’t love the Marko post in the chat room? He’s all in and I love it. Plus, he’s backed by NASA scientists working in some secret war room in California so anything is possible. If things are working, Cali will be willing to make the necessary adjustments to the roster. The JBL is just better with Marko in the pool.
Why Cali won’t win:
Winning the JBL without valuable keepers is very difficult to do. While Cali brought back Johnson and Oladipo I’m not sure they are providing as much value as some of the other teams. A lot of things need to go really well for this current roster to win it all.
#9 – Norfolk
This team can score. Flat out put it in the basket. Led by downtown dynamos Lillard, Trae, and Booker this team should score a lot of points and be very strong in 3PT%. This is another team though, like Bangkok, that I wonder about their depth guys. Will Kanter earn enough minutes in Portland or be pushed to 3rd string by hard charging Harry Giles? Will Dinwiddie and Prince get to touch the ball in Brooklyn? Will JJ Redick and Cole Anthony carve out roles in NO and ORL to be fantasy relevant? And outside of Drummond, who grabs the rebounds on this team? I like the scoring of this squad but wonder about the other categories.
Why Norfolk could win:
The back end of this roster turns into gold. Dinwiddie is traded and lights it up somewhere else; Cole Anthony becomes a star in ORL; and the “big boys” of this roster continue to excel in everything they do. Norfolk will have some roster adjustments to make but at least he’s got the scoring part sorted out.
Why Norfolk won’t win:
The Drummond factor could play a role here. Does he get traded? Does he still put up monster numbers? Does Trae get impacted by ATL’s new found depth? Can Booker expand his fantasy game beyond just PTS? A lot of questions still to answer as the season gets underway with this squad.
#10 – Juan de Fuca
This is a pretty decent Juan roster. As I review and type this I’m wondering if this slot is too low already? I’m concerned about this teams’ ability to shoot 3PT% and get ATO though. I see those 2 categories as massive drawbacks. This team will need some big seasons from guys like Noel, Michael Porter Jr and PJ Washington in order to climb the rankings. Lebron and Westy are leading the way but we’ve already heard that Westy will be rested in back-to-back games so there go some man games already. What about LeBron? Does he get rested too? I really feel like this team go up or down quite easily as I review the projections. It’s a deep team but I’m really not sure about the depth. Is Nunn still good? Is Edwards good? Is Graham going to be able to do it again now that LeMelo is in town? I have so many questions about this team…..
Why Juan could win:
What if everything played out the way Juan is hoping? Edwards is ROY. Devonte has a big year. Porter Jr breaks out. Thibs plays Noel 40 minutes a night. LeVert becomes a star after he’s traded. Rui improves in WASH. Baynes is a hit in TO. Anything is possible at this time of the year.
Why Juan won’t win:
Just too many unknowns about this roster.
#11 – Maui
The best theme team in a long time gets a bit of love here. First of all, we draft 210 players in our JBL pool and Trev decided to focus on just those players with the last name starting with B. How many guys does that narrow the field down to? By rough count it appears there are roughly 60 guys that would qualify for this B team. So, Trevor was behind the 8-ball sort of to begin with but he did pretty well considering his parameters. I’m not sure if the B team model holds for the season? Will Trev only sign B-named FA’s? Or will the team transition to a more normal looking roster over the year? As it stands now, this team will struggle in Blocks and FG% - but that was going to be the case anyways when you have the Ball brothers on the roster. This team looks to be OK in steals, ATO and 3PT% and even in scoring so this will be interesting to watch. A core of Butler, Bryant, Brogdon, Bledsoe, Ball, Bagley, Bertans, and RJ Barrett is pretty darn good considering the parameters of what he tried to do. For the only other 30 year member, I say congrats to Trevor for creating this theme team.
Why Maui could win:
He gets Beal and Booker (and some Blocks) in trades….and guys like LaMelo, Barrett and Bagley all have monster years.
Why Maui won’t win:
A limited field of players available if there are injuries to this roster (unless of course the B theme was just for the auction).
#12 – Arctic
Arctic started strong with high scoring keepers of Wiggins and Russell and added Kyrie and Gobert to the roster very quickly at auction. I feel Vucevic was a tad high in terms of price but he is a very good fantasy player. I love the Hayes pick for his rookie. I think this roster will look very different in the next few weeks as the last 6 players on this roster were all auto-pilot picks for $1 late in the draft. If Arctic can turn those over into more productive players I think this team has the potential to move up the rankings a few spots. But as currently constructed, this is where the Arctic lands.
Why Arctic could win:
Some shrewd FA signings and big years from Hayes, Herro and his big boys could lead this bunch up the standings.
Why Arctic won’t win:
The depth guys just don’t come through. Lots of work to do with this roster but let’s reserve judgment until we see some changes.
#13 – Bellingham
This is a much better roster than Bellingham’s first crack at the JBL. That said, this team is coming off a 13th place finish and needs to continue to move up the standings and get good keepers in order to solidify the base of the roster. There are some really good options on this squad with Curry, Beal, and Hayward leading the way. Add in secondary guys like Wall, Allen, Ibaka, and Love and we’re getting there. Some of the depth guys will need to have solid seasons and this team does have the potential to move up the standings/rankings this year.
Why Bellingham could win:
His big boys are great and the roles guys have bigger years than expected (ie. Jerami Grant, Boucher, Kevin Porter). The potential is there with this squad so let’s see how he manages the roster over the coming weeks. The JBL isn’t easy and started as an expansion team is hard. But there is a path….
Why Bellingham won’t win:
Again, it’s hard to win without great keepers to set up your core. The Ham N Eggers should be focused on getting into that top 8 and getting 3 keeper spots to set themselves up for a big 21/22 season.
#14 – Vancouver
Toughest act in the JBL is trying to compete when you don’t have any keepers to start your season. Vancouver was working under those constraints and is trying to build a roster to move up and get some keepers for next season. I like the Jokic and Embiid pairing but outside of Joel – who is going to block shots on this team? I think this team will struggle with percentages as well. I think the realistic expectations for this squad would be again, shoot for top 8 and try to get 3 keepers for next season.
Why Vancouver could win:
The Jizzlies stay covid-free while the rest of the JBL is ravaged by the virus. Blake Griffin turns back the clock. Coby White becomes a star. Jokic learns to block. Obi Toppin averages 20/10. I could go on….
Why Vancouver won’t win:
For the umpteenth time, you need a good couple of keepers, undervalued, to start as the base of your JBL roster. One step at a time. Get some good keepers and then build from there.
OK, that’s it for me and my Godfather preseason rankings. Just the fact that the chat room is going crazy over my opinions on fantasy basketball makes the JBL a pretty fun place. I hope you enjoyed the read. I think the best thing about my rankings is that they are usually wrong so everyone can still feel safe and secure that they really do have a chance at this year’s JBL title.
Best of luck to everyone this season.
