Today is a big day...not because of anything JBL or NBA related. Today, one of the JBL's own, Timmy P, is getting married. Tim is entering a new and exciting part of life now. No, I'm not talking about love, honeymoon, kids and careers...I'm talking about how he's going to have to juggle married life and JBL commitments. It's not easy. Look at Bangkok. Married with kids and no JBL titles. Coincidence? I think not. I say congrats to Timmy on your big day. I wish you all the best for you and Kelly on a long and happy marriage. And I hope that you continue to be a part of the JBL for a long time.
With the JBL draft only 3 months away (October 24th)....it's time to start looking at some of the potential guys for your roster. Today, I thought I would focus on a Point Guard who I think is over-rated for Fantasy purposes. Remember, it doesn't matter how good an NBA player you are - to us - it's all about the statistics you are able to put up.
Baron Davis. He got the big contract last year to move from GS to Clipperland. (Of course the Clips overpaid for him). He can score, he's a leader and a warrior, but for JBL purposes, I think he's a bit over-rated. He always seem to go between $30 and $40 dollars - but I always think there are better options for the price. Don't get me wrong, Baron can help your JBL team, it just means you need other guys to support his weaknesses. It also means that he's valuable - up to a certain price. Baron's biggest weaknesses have always been his shooting percentages and last year was no different in LA. He shot 37% and 30% - that's not good - it's terrible. Look, I'm all for drafting Baron but you have to make sure you have 2 players to counteract those %'s. You'll need a big man who shoots 55% or more and a 3-point gunner who shoots 40%+ from downtown. So, if you have Baron, maybe a guy like Shaq and JR Smith would be good teammates. What Baron does well, usually, is put up a good ATO. Last year was no different as he posted a 2.596 ATO. He also steals the ball - 108 steals in 65 games last year. That's the other concern with Baron - how many games are you going to get out of him? Baron is a Juan de Fuca favorite - for whatever reason - and I expect Juan and Idaho to be after Baron on draft night.
So, how much does Baron go for on JBL draft night? Last year Juan paid $33 bucks for him and in 07/08 Juan de Fuca paid $30 for him. To compare, Chauncey Billups went for $33 bucks last year too and he outperformed Baron in every category except for steals. Based on past seasons, I again think Baron is destined for a $30 dollar contract. Too rich for my blood based on how I build a Fantasy team - but that can all change depending on who's left and what the salaries are looking like. If you draft Baron - then you have some work to do building the rest of your team.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Summer League & Offseason Rumblings
Well, since my last post, Anthony Randolph continues to impress. He just scored 42 points in a summer league game vs. the Bulls. Clearly, the kid is developing nicely. So, how does this affect his Fantasy value for the upcoming season. Let's look at some of the factors...
Randolph plays for Golden St. Golden State is coached by Don Nelson. NO ONE knows what Don Nelson will do with him. I don't think even Don knows what he'll do at this point. Randolph should start at PF. He SHOULD....but will he? Remember Don loves to run and he loves 6'6 swingmen. No matter how good Randolph plays in summer league he still won't be the 1st option on offense (S-Jax) or the 2nd option (Ellis) or the 3rd option (Maggette). So...who do you want scoring after that?? Curry? Biedrins? Azubuike? And then Randolph?
As you can see...there is a bit of numbers game. There just aren't that many shots to go around. So, how much does he go for on draft night ($260 budget for 15 guys remember). I'm not sure, but I can say this, he will go for more than he's worth.
The upside with this kid is amazing based on other people in the know's opinions. Some have compared him to Chris Bosh with more athleticism (Mike Moreau from Hoopsworld). But how quickly can he take this Summer League performance and do it night in and night out against the best PF's in the Western Conference? Can he do it vs. Duncan? vs. Dirk? vs. West? vs. Amare? vs. Aldridge? Only time will tell. And will he truly get the opportunity to excel as long as Nelson is the coach in Golden State?
If Randolph has a good pre-season - I'll bet he goes for more than $20 bucks on JBL draft night. And who knows, that could be a bargain...but it could also be a bust.
I've read some reports that the Clippers are entertaining the thoughts of signing Allen Iverson. This just after I praised them for dumping Zach on the Grizzlies. The Clippers, minus Zach, seem like a nice team poised to make some noise down the road...they have Griffin, Gordon, and Al Thornton as the young core. They have very serviceable big men in Kaman and Camby (provided they stay healthy) with another young stud learning (DeAndre Jordan). They have Baron de Boef - who I'm not a big fan of...but anyways...so why would this team consider bringing in AI???
Oh wait, I know, CAUSE THEIR THE CLIPPERS! Why bring him in? Did they not see what he did to the Pistons last season??? He destroyed that team. A team that the year before had won 59 games!! They trade Billups for Iverson and now the Pistons win 39 games.
OK, let's assume AI signs in Clipperland....what does that do to those guys Fantasy values?
Is AI going to be OK coming off the bench?? How many minutes will he get? How many shots is he going to need? First off, I never draft AI because of those %'s....but his steals, ATO, and scoring can make up for his crappy %'s. But if he's not the focus of that offense - and he shouldn't be - then now all you have is steals and ATO. If he's not playing as much - then his ATO won't be that much of a factor. So, now you're left with steals...
If AI lands in Clipperville....you can expect Gordon's value to drop (crap - he's one of my keepers for next season at $10 bucks). Does AI make Baron better or worse? Who would you rather have - Baron or Iverson? Ugh. What a decision...It's like the impossible decision in the game "would you rather?". Baron or Allen? Iverson or Davis? Who would I rather have on my Fantasy team?
Choosing between those two guys for your Fantasy team is even harder than the "would you rather watch your parents have sex everyday for the rest of your life" or "join in just once"....
Finally today...let's discuss the Paul Millsap deal. Portland has of course signed him to an offer sheet...will Utah match??? I say, of course they match. Why wouldn't they? They have to. Boozer is on a one year deal and will bolt at the end of the season.... or they can likely trade him - so they have to have Millsap to start at PF. The luxury tax doesn't kick in until the end of the season - so they can handle Millsap's inflated salary.
So..does French Lick protect Millsap for $15 bucks??? He already has Rondo for $24 and Mayo for $10 - and he can only keep 2 of the 3. Hmmm. Good question. We know Chris loves his Celtics. Here are the 3 options that can go down...with the respective answers about protecting Millsap
1) Utah doesn't match the offer and Millsap ends up in Portland behind LA12 - French drops him
2) Utah matches offer but keeps Boozer. Millsap coming off the bench - French drops him
3) Utah matches offer and trades Boozer making Millsap the starter at PF - French keeps Millsap and Rondo and releases Mayo (because SG's are a dime a dozen).
And when Utah matches the offer sheet - what do my Blazers do next??? David Lee? Lamar Odom? Andre Miller? I guess I'll just have to wait and see...
Randolph plays for Golden St. Golden State is coached by Don Nelson. NO ONE knows what Don Nelson will do with him. I don't think even Don knows what he'll do at this point. Randolph should start at PF. He SHOULD....but will he? Remember Don loves to run and he loves 6'6 swingmen. No matter how good Randolph plays in summer league he still won't be the 1st option on offense (S-Jax) or the 2nd option (Ellis) or the 3rd option (Maggette). So...who do you want scoring after that?? Curry? Biedrins? Azubuike? And then Randolph?
As you can see...there is a bit of numbers game. There just aren't that many shots to go around. So, how much does he go for on draft night ($260 budget for 15 guys remember). I'm not sure, but I can say this, he will go for more than he's worth.
The upside with this kid is amazing based on other people in the know's opinions. Some have compared him to Chris Bosh with more athleticism (Mike Moreau from Hoopsworld). But how quickly can he take this Summer League performance and do it night in and night out against the best PF's in the Western Conference? Can he do it vs. Duncan? vs. Dirk? vs. West? vs. Amare? vs. Aldridge? Only time will tell. And will he truly get the opportunity to excel as long as Nelson is the coach in Golden State?
If Randolph has a good pre-season - I'll bet he goes for more than $20 bucks on JBL draft night. And who knows, that could be a bargain...but it could also be a bust.
I've read some reports that the Clippers are entertaining the thoughts of signing Allen Iverson. This just after I praised them for dumping Zach on the Grizzlies. The Clippers, minus Zach, seem like a nice team poised to make some noise down the road...they have Griffin, Gordon, and Al Thornton as the young core. They have very serviceable big men in Kaman and Camby (provided they stay healthy) with another young stud learning (DeAndre Jordan). They have Baron de Boef - who I'm not a big fan of...but anyways...so why would this team consider bringing in AI???
Oh wait, I know, CAUSE THEIR THE CLIPPERS! Why bring him in? Did they not see what he did to the Pistons last season??? He destroyed that team. A team that the year before had won 59 games!! They trade Billups for Iverson and now the Pistons win 39 games.
OK, let's assume AI signs in Clipperland....what does that do to those guys Fantasy values?
Is AI going to be OK coming off the bench?? How many minutes will he get? How many shots is he going to need? First off, I never draft AI because of those %'s....but his steals, ATO, and scoring can make up for his crappy %'s. But if he's not the focus of that offense - and he shouldn't be - then now all you have is steals and ATO. If he's not playing as much - then his ATO won't be that much of a factor. So, now you're left with steals...
If AI lands in Clipperville....you can expect Gordon's value to drop (crap - he's one of my keepers for next season at $10 bucks). Does AI make Baron better or worse? Who would you rather have - Baron or Iverson? Ugh. What a decision...It's like the impossible decision in the game "would you rather?". Baron or Allen? Iverson or Davis? Who would I rather have on my Fantasy team?
Choosing between those two guys for your Fantasy team is even harder than the "would you rather watch your parents have sex everyday for the rest of your life" or "join in just once"....
Finally today...let's discuss the Paul Millsap deal. Portland has of course signed him to an offer sheet...will Utah match??? I say, of course they match. Why wouldn't they? They have to. Boozer is on a one year deal and will bolt at the end of the season.... or they can likely trade him - so they have to have Millsap to start at PF. The luxury tax doesn't kick in until the end of the season - so they can handle Millsap's inflated salary.
So..does French Lick protect Millsap for $15 bucks??? He already has Rondo for $24 and Mayo for $10 - and he can only keep 2 of the 3. Hmmm. Good question. We know Chris loves his Celtics. Here are the 3 options that can go down...with the respective answers about protecting Millsap
1) Utah doesn't match the offer and Millsap ends up in Portland behind LA12 - French drops him
2) Utah matches offer but keeps Boozer. Millsap coming off the bench - French drops him
3) Utah matches offer and trades Boozer making Millsap the starter at PF - French keeps Millsap and Rondo and releases Mayo (because SG's are a dime a dozen).
And when Utah matches the offer sheet - what do my Blazers do next??? David Lee? Lamar Odom? Andre Miller? I guess I'll just have to wait and see...
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Vegas Summer League Underway....
Man, I forgot how much I loved scanning box scores...pathetic. Even Vegas Summer League box scores are interesting these days. But what does a Summer league game mean in terms of Fantasy for the 09/10 JBL season? In some cases...it means a lot. In others, diddly squat.
Anthony Randolph, Russell Westbrook, and Ryan Anderson have all been amazing in the summer and I fully expect them to shine once the real season kicks in. Anderson should be very valuable in Orlando stretching defenses with his ability to shoot from long range. Remember, he's a tall white guy who can shoot from downtown. Gee, doesn't that sound a little like the guy who just left town???
But, for others, the summer league is a way for them to try and stay in the NBA - but it really means nothing in terms of their playing time come the fall. Take Adam Morrison as a prime example. He's been a stud in the summer but I think all he's hoping for is a spot (10-12) on the Lakers bench. He'd be happy with that.
I see DeJuan Blair is making his summer league debut today for the Spurs. He could be a Reggie Evans type for them this season - but I don't think he's drafted on JBL draft night.
The 2 Pistons rookies have been impressive so far. DeJuan Summers and Austin Daye have both been very good and should be in the new look Pistons rotation in the fall. Daye is 6'10 and weighs 180 pounds. He was UNABLE to bench press the 185 pound barbell in the combine before the draft!!! So, he's a lot like TayShaun Prince when he came out of college...but he's been pretty good so far this summer.
Stephen Curry is showing he can shoot...and remember he plays for Golden State. We know how Nelson loves to run and gun so he has a chance to play. Now, that being said, remember a couple summers ago we saw Marco Bellinini score 37 pts in a summer league game and then he never saw the floor again once the real games began. So...take it with a grain of salt. The one thing that Curry has going for him though is the #7 pick. You don't get picked that high in the draft and then not play. Curry will be a factor for GS this year and should be one of the top 3 rookies overall.
Another name making his mark is Rodrigue Beaubois in Dallas. A 6-foot point guard from France taken in the 1st round this year has been very good so far. But, can he find anytime in that star-studded Dallas lineup. My bet is no. Jason Kidd and company are built to win right now and they don't have any interest in seeing what this 21 year old can do. He shouldn't be a factor.
Marcus Thornton was a 2nd round pick this year for the Hornets and could factor in their lineup this season. The Hornets, in my mind, are the most surprising team in the West. Looking at their roster, I'm really not sure how they won 49 games last season. This for me reminds me of a few things. (1) Chris Paul must be amazing to lead this group of players to 49 wins. (2) Byron Scott has to be a good coach for the same reason. (3) Team defense obviously means something.
The Hornets could use some bench production this season and Thornton could be the guy. Rasual Butler had a good year at SG but is he the long term solution?? Really? I don't think so...So, you may as well try to get something out of Thornton. Apparently he is an electric scorer and could be a factor in 09/10.
(Quick update from the Hornets v. Spurs game --- Thornton has 18 pts and Blair has 13pts and 10 rebs)
Timbo and I are discussing D-Wade. Late last night he offered Derrick Rose and Nate Robinson for Wade. 3 minutes later he withdrew the offer. Would I have accepted the offer? No. Why? Because of Nifty Nate. His status for 09/10 is still up in the air so I don't think I would chance it. Even if I knew where he was going...I'm not sure he's the 2nd guy in a deal I'd want for Wade.
So, this morning, I countered with Wade for Rose and Tyrus Thomas. Is it the best deal I could get for Wade? I don't think so...but it's pretty good. I do like Rose and think he can have a good 2nd season. He averaged 17ppg, 6ast, and 4reb last year. He shot the ball well but doesn't take/make many 3-pointers. Tyrus Thomas is the wild card. He was in and out of the Bulls' doghouse last year and ended up averaging 10 and 6 with 2 blocks a game. There are numerous risks to acquiring/keeping him. What if the Bulls were able to acquire Carlos Boozer and didn't move Thomas? How many minutes would he get behind Carlos? Not many. What if Thomas got traded to Utah (for Boozer) and the Jazz re-signed Millsap...now Tyrus is coming off the bench. How valuable is he then?? Oh crap, I'm really talking myself out of this deal now...but what if Millsap is not re-signed and Tyrus is the starter?? Oh man....I wonder if Bangkok is still interested in a Wade for Westbrook/Lee deal?
Anthony Randolph, Russell Westbrook, and Ryan Anderson have all been amazing in the summer and I fully expect them to shine once the real season kicks in. Anderson should be very valuable in Orlando stretching defenses with his ability to shoot from long range. Remember, he's a tall white guy who can shoot from downtown. Gee, doesn't that sound a little like the guy who just left town???
But, for others, the summer league is a way for them to try and stay in the NBA - but it really means nothing in terms of their playing time come the fall. Take Adam Morrison as a prime example. He's been a stud in the summer but I think all he's hoping for is a spot (10-12) on the Lakers bench. He'd be happy with that.
I see DeJuan Blair is making his summer league debut today for the Spurs. He could be a Reggie Evans type for them this season - but I don't think he's drafted on JBL draft night.
The 2 Pistons rookies have been impressive so far. DeJuan Summers and Austin Daye have both been very good and should be in the new look Pistons rotation in the fall. Daye is 6'10 and weighs 180 pounds. He was UNABLE to bench press the 185 pound barbell in the combine before the draft!!! So, he's a lot like TayShaun Prince when he came out of college...but he's been pretty good so far this summer.
Stephen Curry is showing he can shoot...and remember he plays for Golden State. We know how Nelson loves to run and gun so he has a chance to play. Now, that being said, remember a couple summers ago we saw Marco Bellinini score 37 pts in a summer league game and then he never saw the floor again once the real games began. So...take it with a grain of salt. The one thing that Curry has going for him though is the #7 pick. You don't get picked that high in the draft and then not play. Curry will be a factor for GS this year and should be one of the top 3 rookies overall.
Another name making his mark is Rodrigue Beaubois in Dallas. A 6-foot point guard from France taken in the 1st round this year has been very good so far. But, can he find anytime in that star-studded Dallas lineup. My bet is no. Jason Kidd and company are built to win right now and they don't have any interest in seeing what this 21 year old can do. He shouldn't be a factor.
Marcus Thornton was a 2nd round pick this year for the Hornets and could factor in their lineup this season. The Hornets, in my mind, are the most surprising team in the West. Looking at their roster, I'm really not sure how they won 49 games last season. This for me reminds me of a few things. (1) Chris Paul must be amazing to lead this group of players to 49 wins. (2) Byron Scott has to be a good coach for the same reason. (3) Team defense obviously means something.
The Hornets could use some bench production this season and Thornton could be the guy. Rasual Butler had a good year at SG but is he the long term solution?? Really? I don't think so...So, you may as well try to get something out of Thornton. Apparently he is an electric scorer and could be a factor in 09/10.
(Quick update from the Hornets v. Spurs game --- Thornton has 18 pts and Blair has 13pts and 10 rebs)
Timbo and I are discussing D-Wade. Late last night he offered Derrick Rose and Nate Robinson for Wade. 3 minutes later he withdrew the offer. Would I have accepted the offer? No. Why? Because of Nifty Nate. His status for 09/10 is still up in the air so I don't think I would chance it. Even if I knew where he was going...I'm not sure he's the 2nd guy in a deal I'd want for Wade.
So, this morning, I countered with Wade for Rose and Tyrus Thomas. Is it the best deal I could get for Wade? I don't think so...but it's pretty good. I do like Rose and think he can have a good 2nd season. He averaged 17ppg, 6ast, and 4reb last year. He shot the ball well but doesn't take/make many 3-pointers. Tyrus Thomas is the wild card. He was in and out of the Bulls' doghouse last year and ended up averaging 10 and 6 with 2 blocks a game. There are numerous risks to acquiring/keeping him. What if the Bulls were able to acquire Carlos Boozer and didn't move Thomas? How many minutes would he get behind Carlos? Not many. What if Thomas got traded to Utah (for Boozer) and the Jazz re-signed Millsap...now Tyrus is coming off the bench. How valuable is he then?? Oh crap, I'm really talking myself out of this deal now...but what if Millsap is not re-signed and Tyrus is the starter?? Oh man....I wonder if Bangkok is still interested in a Wade for Westbrook/Lee deal?
Friday, July 10, 2009
We are now 10 days into NBA Free Agency and the simplest way to summarize the moves so far is that the rich are getting richer. Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston have all improved a great deal already.
Cleveland added Shaq and Anthony Parker and retained Varejao.
Orlando added Vince Carter and now Brandon Bass (if NBA.com is dealing the real goods)
Boston has added Rasheed Wallace to an already dangerous core.
Out west, same deal...Lakers, Mavericks, and Spurs have all made significant moves to compete for the title.
The Lakers have substituted Artest in for Ariza.
The Mavericks have added Shawn Marion and will likely get Marcin Gortat to man the middle (a definite upgrade over Dampier)
The Spurs have added Jefferson and now Antonio McDyess to the mix.
With the 2 Texas teams though - their window of opportunity is the next 2-3 years and that's it. The Mavericks starting lineup is very good - but also very old. Kidd, Marion, Howard, Terry, and Dirty Dirk are all OVER 30 years old. The Spurs lineup, aside from Parker, is the same...older than most...so they need to go for it right now.
My Blazers were shunned by Turkoglu last week when he bolted for Toronto. No big deal in my mind as paying him 50 million over 5 years does seem a bit much. Currently, there are a couple rumours out there. One is that they will sign Millsap to an offer sheet. I love Millsap - but doesn't he play the same position as LA12? How does that work? The second rumour has the Bulls/Blazers/Jazz working on a 3-way deal that lands Kirk Hinrich in Rip City. I like Hinrich, but I don't think he's the piece that puts them over the top. With the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavs all loading up for the short term - isn't the best move to continue to grow as a team and get better? Sign Roy and LA to their extensions. See if Oden is the real deal. Let Bayless, Batum, Rudy, and the others grow and then challenge in 2-3 years. But can Paul Allen afford to wait?
The biggest FA's out there are Millsap, Lee, Iverson, Andre Miller, and Nate Robinson.
Lee and Nate could sign the one year pact to go play in NY and then be an unrestricted FA in 2010. But do they want to fight for dollars against the likes of Lebron, Bosh, and Wade (and others) when the salary cap is rumored to be going down significantly in 2010??? I don't think they do - so they should hope for the pay day now.
Iverson is apparently talking to Memphis? Really? Why? Because they could pay him the most. I have no idea why the Grizzlies would want him. Don't they already have Mayo? Can AI really come off the bench?
Where will Andre Miller land?? If he's holding his 10 million a year stance then he's going to be waiting awhile.
The best PG options left are Miller and Ramon Sessions. So who could use their services? Well, it's safe to assume that Milwaukee will do everything in their power to re-sign Sessions. So where does that leave Andre? Back in Philly for less money? What about Minnesota? They are likely going to have to start Sebastian Telfair or the rookie Jonny Flynn. Yikes. Sacramento could use a better PG but I can't see a young rebuilding team bringing in a 30+ guy like Andre. If I had to make a guess - Miller will be back in Philly.
I was very excited to see a recent JBL message come from Brussels - encouraging teams to clean up their rosters. I like it, July 9th and I got the guys thinking JBL. I love it.
I had a brief email discussion with Tricky Rick in Bangkok about D-Wade. I told him I was interested in Westbrook and Lee/Scola. He was intrigued but is concerned about Wade's injury history. Can't say I blame him. That being said, Wade is entering his contract year - and we all know what happens then - big time motivation to put up big numbers. Granted, Wade could play 10 games and he's still getting a max deal - but I really think he'll be motivated to show he's as good (if not better) than all the other big name FA's.
So...if Wade is going to have a monster season...why am I so willing to move him? There are numerous things that are running thru my head on this topic.
Cleveland added Shaq and Anthony Parker and retained Varejao.
Orlando added Vince Carter and now Brandon Bass (if NBA.com is dealing the real goods)
Boston has added Rasheed Wallace to an already dangerous core.
Out west, same deal...Lakers, Mavericks, and Spurs have all made significant moves to compete for the title.
The Lakers have substituted Artest in for Ariza.
The Mavericks have added Shawn Marion and will likely get Marcin Gortat to man the middle (a definite upgrade over Dampier)
The Spurs have added Jefferson and now Antonio McDyess to the mix.
With the 2 Texas teams though - their window of opportunity is the next 2-3 years and that's it. The Mavericks starting lineup is very good - but also very old. Kidd, Marion, Howard, Terry, and Dirty Dirk are all OVER 30 years old. The Spurs lineup, aside from Parker, is the same...older than most...so they need to go for it right now.
My Blazers were shunned by Turkoglu last week when he bolted for Toronto. No big deal in my mind as paying him 50 million over 5 years does seem a bit much. Currently, there are a couple rumours out there. One is that they will sign Millsap to an offer sheet. I love Millsap - but doesn't he play the same position as LA12? How does that work? The second rumour has the Bulls/Blazers/Jazz working on a 3-way deal that lands Kirk Hinrich in Rip City. I like Hinrich, but I don't think he's the piece that puts them over the top. With the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavs all loading up for the short term - isn't the best move to continue to grow as a team and get better? Sign Roy and LA to their extensions. See if Oden is the real deal. Let Bayless, Batum, Rudy, and the others grow and then challenge in 2-3 years. But can Paul Allen afford to wait?
The biggest FA's out there are Millsap, Lee, Iverson, Andre Miller, and Nate Robinson.
Lee and Nate could sign the one year pact to go play in NY and then be an unrestricted FA in 2010. But do they want to fight for dollars against the likes of Lebron, Bosh, and Wade (and others) when the salary cap is rumored to be going down significantly in 2010??? I don't think they do - so they should hope for the pay day now.
Iverson is apparently talking to Memphis? Really? Why? Because they could pay him the most. I have no idea why the Grizzlies would want him. Don't they already have Mayo? Can AI really come off the bench?
Where will Andre Miller land?? If he's holding his 10 million a year stance then he's going to be waiting awhile.
The best PG options left are Miller and Ramon Sessions. So who could use their services? Well, it's safe to assume that Milwaukee will do everything in their power to re-sign Sessions. So where does that leave Andre? Back in Philly for less money? What about Minnesota? They are likely going to have to start Sebastian Telfair or the rookie Jonny Flynn. Yikes. Sacramento could use a better PG but I can't see a young rebuilding team bringing in a 30+ guy like Andre. If I had to make a guess - Miller will be back in Philly.
I was very excited to see a recent JBL message come from Brussels - encouraging teams to clean up their rosters. I like it, July 9th and I got the guys thinking JBL. I love it.
I had a brief email discussion with Tricky Rick in Bangkok about D-Wade. I told him I was interested in Westbrook and Lee/Scola. He was intrigued but is concerned about Wade's injury history. Can't say I blame him. That being said, Wade is entering his contract year - and we all know what happens then - big time motivation to put up big numbers. Granted, Wade could play 10 games and he's still getting a max deal - but I really think he'll be motivated to show he's as good (if not better) than all the other big name FA's.
So...if Wade is going to have a monster season...why am I so willing to move him? There are numerous things that are running thru my head on this topic.
- his injury history
- do I want to spend $69 dollars on a stud
- is that a bargain?
- who would be the best 2 guys to get for him
- if I am keeping Gordon and Nelson - does Elton Brand for $28 bucks make sense? If Brand returns to form (a big if after the last 2 years) - he could be 20 and 10 and he'd be worth more than 28 bucks. Is that a risk I'm willing to take?
Protecting players in the JBL should be about value first and foremost. But it could also be about keeping guys you like to root for. I have always found it easier to cheer for guys on my team that I like. That's why I've never had Iverson, Mcgrady, or Zach Randolph on my team.
So...thinking value...if Eric Gordon came up on draft night...would I be willing to pay more than $10 bucks for him? Hmmm. This is an easy one. Let's see what he did after the All-Star break. He averaged 19.6ppg while shooting 47.7% from FG and 42.8% from 3PT. His tendex was 17.5. That, to me, is definitely worth $10 bucks. Zach is gone and Blake Griffin will be playing PF - so I think Gordon can be an offensive factor next season.
Just saw the 1st box score from the Vegas summer league....Golden State's Anthony Randolph put up 20 and 10. He will go for big bucks on potential alone in the upcoming JBL draft - just you wait and see.
The JBL isn't that far away...Summer leagues have started...I'm getting excited.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Crazy Beginning to Free Agency
3 days in to Free Agency and the NBA landscape appears to be changing quite a bit. Of course, deals aren't official until July 8th, but there are plenty of verbal agreements already out there. Let's have a look at some of those moves and what they could mean.
Ben Gordon and Charlie Villenueva to Detroit - OK, these ones I don't really get. Don't the Pistons already have Rip Hamilton? So are you really gonna pay $11 million dollars a year for BG to come off the bench? I don't think so. So that means that Rip will likely be moved. I get the Charlie the signing from the point of need because Rasheed Wallace won't be back. But is he really the answer? Wouldn't you rather make a play for Millsap or David Lee? Nevertheless, both will be fantasy factors simply because they have to be. BG will lead them in scoring and CV will likely be the #2 guy. He can score better than Stuckey or Prince. CV will also have to lead this team in rebounding because the only other big guy (assuming McDyess doesn't come back) is Kwame Brown. So pencil CV in for 8-9 rebounds.
Ron Artest to the Lakers - Ron Ron wanted to be in LA a few years ago but it never happened. Now, with the Lakers World Champs he decides to take less money and come on board. He will replace Ariza in the starting lineup and play small forward. He isn't the lock-down defender he was a few years ago but he can play multiple positions and should be on his best behaviour for Coach Phil. My concern is how he will fit in on this team. This is Kobe and Pau's team. Can Ron accept being 3rd fiddle? And what is Lamar Odom comes back? Can Ron handle getting 10 shots a night? Can Pau Gasol handle being less of a focus on offense? Do you really want Pau taking less shots? And how will this affect Bynum's development? Personally, I would have rather kept Aiza (didn't him and Ron sign for the same money?). Isn't Ariza younger? And the biggest factor -didn't you just win the frikkin' NBA Championship??? Why mess with success? Does Artest make you better when you're already the best?
Ariza to the Rockets - On the one hand, I like it. On the other hand - I think he got the big day from his playoff performance. During the regular season, he averaged 9ppg and 4rpg. Those aren't superstar numbers - yet the Rockets gave him pretty big dollars. The Rockets problems stem from Yao Ming and his troubled foot. With only one year left on T-Mac's deal this could be a very different looking Rockets team this coming season if they can move him. They have the building blocks to be a good team - but without Yao they will struggle to make the playoffs. I like Brooks, Battier, Scola, and now Ariza - but that group will not compete for the playoffs out West.
Zach Randolph to the Grizzlies - I can't believe it, but the Grizzlies could be taking over for the Clippers as being the dumbest franchise out there. Do the Grizz not know anything about Zach? Have they seen him play? He's a black hole. He doesn't win. He pouts. He is not a good teammate. But maybe I get it, maybe Michael Heisley is trying to put a good fantasy team together and doesn't care about all those other things. Maybe he just sees 20 and 10 and thought why not. From a Fantasy perspective, Zach is still going to get his numbers and is worth drafting. For the Grizzlies, I can't way to see what sort of quality values Zach relays to youngsters Mayo, Conley, Thabeet, and Gasol.
For the Clippers, they did it. They got rid of the extra big man they had to open a spot for Blake Griffin. I expect Kaman to start at center and let Camby come off the bench. Great move for the Clippers to get rid of Zach. Well done Clips. I have never typed that before.
Turkoglu to the Blazers, no wait the Raptors - When I read at the beginning of Free Agency that Hedo's wife really like Toronto as a city I was surprised to learn he was heading to Portland for the day. I saw some video of Turkoglu arriving in PDX by HIMSELF - and I knew the deal wouldn't get done. The Blazers didn't have to convince Hedo to come to Portland - they needed to convince his wife! For the Blazers, my adopted team, I am a bit sad they didn't get him because of his experience and his ability to create his own shot. On the other hand, they do already have 3 younger options to play SF. I still think the Blazers need someone who can create their own shot - whether that's a PG or SF I don't think really matters. The best thing Turk would have brought to the Blazers was his ball-handling. In crunch time, Brandon Roy becomes their PG anyways so it would have been nice to use Turkoglu in the that role. Oh well, let's see who the Blazers go after now.
The Raptors are creating a little Euro team there in TO. Calderon, Bargnani and now Turkoglu in the starting lineup. And don't forget that Bosh guy. If they gel, they again are a playoff factor next season. Turkoglu is 3o years old and in his prime. Just a couple seasons ago he averaged close to 20ppg with 5 assists and 5 rebounds a game. If he can even come close to that the Raptors should be good enough to make the top 8 in the East. And for fantasy purposes, I like Turk in TO.
Shaq to the Cavaliers - The Big Cactus won't be sunny and warm in Cleveland. Lucky Shaq has played in Orlando, LA, Miami and Phoenix (not exactly 'cold' places) so this will be a big change for him. I can't wait for the those televised games where Shaq comes into the arena dress in a big parka and one of those crazy winter hats. Love it and I love this move for Cleveland. I mean, why not try Shaq for one season. That's all he has left on his contract. One year for 20 million. The Cavs still have some work to do though to make this work. Getting Shaq means Ilgauskas comes off the bench - will that work? Varejao opted out of his contract so his defense isn't around. Word is that Lebron could slide over to play power forward - but that still leaves a big hole on the wing for another slasher/shooter. They wanted Ariza. Didn't get him. They wanted Artest. Didn't get him. Where do they turn now?
There are lots of other minor moves rumored to be in the works...so else is out there??
Iverson - who really wants this guy? He wants to play for the Grizzlies - why? They have the most money to offer. I'd be surprised to see the Grizz sign him - but hey - they brought in Zach so maybe they'll bring in AI and have 2 black holes? The other rumor is that the Heat have talked to AI. I don't see a Wade/Iverson combo working.
Rasheed - The Celtics, Magic, Cavs, and Spurs all want him. The Celtics are making the strongest push so far - but why would Rasheed choose them? They already have a pretty big frontcourt. Dwight Howard doesn't really want Wallace (it would hurt his numbers) so I don't see the Magic getting him. What about the Spurs? Parker, Ginobili, RJ, Sheed, and Timmy D??? Come on!!! The Spurs need another big man in a bad way - maybe he goes there?
David Lee - sign and trade coming? Everyone wants him. I think his numbers were inflated because of the system he played in so I think he will be overpaid. I would rather have Millsap because of the shot-blocking ability. Lee will end up somewhere and he will get 10 rebounds a night.
Paul Millsap - I think the Thunder are preparing a big offer for him. That makes sense and it makes me cringe they are no longer my Sonics. Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green, and Millsap with some decent bench guys in Sefolosha, Collison, Krstic, etc. Man, I would love to see it.
Shawn Marion - where will he end up? He was paid 18 million last season. Ugh. Shawn will go where the money is - but who has any? Could the Cavs pony up some dough? The Matrix's stats depend on who his PG is so fantasy buyer-beware.
Others like Bibby (Hawks?), Andre Miller, McDyess (Spurs?), and Nate Robinson (Magic?) all still need to find homes and then more trades will happen. It's getting exciting and the JBL draft is just a few months away....
Ben Gordon and Charlie Villenueva to Detroit - OK, these ones I don't really get. Don't the Pistons already have Rip Hamilton? So are you really gonna pay $11 million dollars a year for BG to come off the bench? I don't think so. So that means that Rip will likely be moved. I get the Charlie the signing from the point of need because Rasheed Wallace won't be back. But is he really the answer? Wouldn't you rather make a play for Millsap or David Lee? Nevertheless, both will be fantasy factors simply because they have to be. BG will lead them in scoring and CV will likely be the #2 guy. He can score better than Stuckey or Prince. CV will also have to lead this team in rebounding because the only other big guy (assuming McDyess doesn't come back) is Kwame Brown. So pencil CV in for 8-9 rebounds.
Ron Artest to the Lakers - Ron Ron wanted to be in LA a few years ago but it never happened. Now, with the Lakers World Champs he decides to take less money and come on board. He will replace Ariza in the starting lineup and play small forward. He isn't the lock-down defender he was a few years ago but he can play multiple positions and should be on his best behaviour for Coach Phil. My concern is how he will fit in on this team. This is Kobe and Pau's team. Can Ron accept being 3rd fiddle? And what is Lamar Odom comes back? Can Ron handle getting 10 shots a night? Can Pau Gasol handle being less of a focus on offense? Do you really want Pau taking less shots? And how will this affect Bynum's development? Personally, I would have rather kept Aiza (didn't him and Ron sign for the same money?). Isn't Ariza younger? And the biggest factor -didn't you just win the frikkin' NBA Championship??? Why mess with success? Does Artest make you better when you're already the best?
Ariza to the Rockets - On the one hand, I like it. On the other hand - I think he got the big day from his playoff performance. During the regular season, he averaged 9ppg and 4rpg. Those aren't superstar numbers - yet the Rockets gave him pretty big dollars. The Rockets problems stem from Yao Ming and his troubled foot. With only one year left on T-Mac's deal this could be a very different looking Rockets team this coming season if they can move him. They have the building blocks to be a good team - but without Yao they will struggle to make the playoffs. I like Brooks, Battier, Scola, and now Ariza - but that group will not compete for the playoffs out West.
Zach Randolph to the Grizzlies - I can't believe it, but the Grizzlies could be taking over for the Clippers as being the dumbest franchise out there. Do the Grizz not know anything about Zach? Have they seen him play? He's a black hole. He doesn't win. He pouts. He is not a good teammate. But maybe I get it, maybe Michael Heisley is trying to put a good fantasy team together and doesn't care about all those other things. Maybe he just sees 20 and 10 and thought why not. From a Fantasy perspective, Zach is still going to get his numbers and is worth drafting. For the Grizzlies, I can't way to see what sort of quality values Zach relays to youngsters Mayo, Conley, Thabeet, and Gasol.
For the Clippers, they did it. They got rid of the extra big man they had to open a spot for Blake Griffin. I expect Kaman to start at center and let Camby come off the bench. Great move for the Clippers to get rid of Zach. Well done Clips. I have never typed that before.
Turkoglu to the Blazers, no wait the Raptors - When I read at the beginning of Free Agency that Hedo's wife really like Toronto as a city I was surprised to learn he was heading to Portland for the day. I saw some video of Turkoglu arriving in PDX by HIMSELF - and I knew the deal wouldn't get done. The Blazers didn't have to convince Hedo to come to Portland - they needed to convince his wife! For the Blazers, my adopted team, I am a bit sad they didn't get him because of his experience and his ability to create his own shot. On the other hand, they do already have 3 younger options to play SF. I still think the Blazers need someone who can create their own shot - whether that's a PG or SF I don't think really matters. The best thing Turk would have brought to the Blazers was his ball-handling. In crunch time, Brandon Roy becomes their PG anyways so it would have been nice to use Turkoglu in the that role. Oh well, let's see who the Blazers go after now.
The Raptors are creating a little Euro team there in TO. Calderon, Bargnani and now Turkoglu in the starting lineup. And don't forget that Bosh guy. If they gel, they again are a playoff factor next season. Turkoglu is 3o years old and in his prime. Just a couple seasons ago he averaged close to 20ppg with 5 assists and 5 rebounds a game. If he can even come close to that the Raptors should be good enough to make the top 8 in the East. And for fantasy purposes, I like Turk in TO.
Shaq to the Cavaliers - The Big Cactus won't be sunny and warm in Cleveland. Lucky Shaq has played in Orlando, LA, Miami and Phoenix (not exactly 'cold' places) so this will be a big change for him. I can't wait for the those televised games where Shaq comes into the arena dress in a big parka and one of those crazy winter hats. Love it and I love this move for Cleveland. I mean, why not try Shaq for one season. That's all he has left on his contract. One year for 20 million. The Cavs still have some work to do though to make this work. Getting Shaq means Ilgauskas comes off the bench - will that work? Varejao opted out of his contract so his defense isn't around. Word is that Lebron could slide over to play power forward - but that still leaves a big hole on the wing for another slasher/shooter. They wanted Ariza. Didn't get him. They wanted Artest. Didn't get him. Where do they turn now?
There are lots of other minor moves rumored to be in the works...so else is out there??
Iverson - who really wants this guy? He wants to play for the Grizzlies - why? They have the most money to offer. I'd be surprised to see the Grizz sign him - but hey - they brought in Zach so maybe they'll bring in AI and have 2 black holes? The other rumor is that the Heat have talked to AI. I don't see a Wade/Iverson combo working.
Rasheed - The Celtics, Magic, Cavs, and Spurs all want him. The Celtics are making the strongest push so far - but why would Rasheed choose them? They already have a pretty big frontcourt. Dwight Howard doesn't really want Wallace (it would hurt his numbers) so I don't see the Magic getting him. What about the Spurs? Parker, Ginobili, RJ, Sheed, and Timmy D??? Come on!!! The Spurs need another big man in a bad way - maybe he goes there?
David Lee - sign and trade coming? Everyone wants him. I think his numbers were inflated because of the system he played in so I think he will be overpaid. I would rather have Millsap because of the shot-blocking ability. Lee will end up somewhere and he will get 10 rebounds a night.
Paul Millsap - I think the Thunder are preparing a big offer for him. That makes sense and it makes me cringe they are no longer my Sonics. Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green, and Millsap with some decent bench guys in Sefolosha, Collison, Krstic, etc. Man, I would love to see it.
Shawn Marion - where will he end up? He was paid 18 million last season. Ugh. Shawn will go where the money is - but who has any? Could the Cavs pony up some dough? The Matrix's stats depend on who his PG is so fantasy buyer-beware.
Others like Bibby (Hawks?), Andre Miller, McDyess (Spurs?), and Nate Robinson (Magic?) all still need to find homes and then more trades will happen. It's getting exciting and the JBL draft is just a few months away....
Sunday, June 28, 2009
The Summer Plan
A few hot rumours out there...the Blazers are very interested in Andre Miller and Hedo Turkoglu. Wow. Could you imagine? Miller, Roy, Turkoglu, Aldridge, Oden. With a decent bench of Blake, Outlaw, Batum, Pryzbilla, Webster....OK, they would need some more size...but that would be a scary team in the West. Can't wait to see what happens after July 1st.
Now, is it ever too early to start thinking JBL? I don't think so. I've got a couple of things on my mind these days...
1) Will the JBL be expanding in 09/10? I don't see Pearl being back. He didn't make any moves last year and not a lot of the other guys like him for that...so, we'll see. And then there are 2 possible expansion teams sitting out there - Chris Jarman and Pat Elliott. Both have JBL experience. Jarman is a 3 time winner - albeit when the league was 4-6 teams - a win is a win. Both are possibles. So, if Pearl stays in and we add both those guys we are up to 14 teams. Wow, that would be incredible. Just once, I'd love to have 15 teams in the JBL. I think it would be cool. Who could be the 15th? How about Cordo? He has JBL experience and takes his Pool participation quite seriously. So...it will be up to expansion coordinator - Commissioner Benny - to determine how many we should add. Good luck mon ami.
2) What is D-Wade's value in the JBL? Should I protect him for $69 dollars? Is he worth that? If we add another 2 teams his value definately goes up because scoring will be at an absolute premium. That being said...should I trade him for depth? There are a few teams in the JBL that could use his scoring. How about Trev and his Pancakes. He can only protect 2 players and has pretty good ones to choose from. Turkoglu, Prince, and Captain Jack. Would Wade be worth Turk and Prince? Is that a good deal for me? Is it for him? What about Wade to Tuna for Monta Ellis and Boris Diaw? What about Wade to Juan de Fuca for Durant and JR Smith? Maybe I should throw it out there?
Now, is it ever too early to start thinking JBL? I don't think so. I've got a couple of things on my mind these days...
1) Will the JBL be expanding in 09/10? I don't see Pearl being back. He didn't make any moves last year and not a lot of the other guys like him for that...so, we'll see. And then there are 2 possible expansion teams sitting out there - Chris Jarman and Pat Elliott. Both have JBL experience. Jarman is a 3 time winner - albeit when the league was 4-6 teams - a win is a win. Both are possibles. So, if Pearl stays in and we add both those guys we are up to 14 teams. Wow, that would be incredible. Just once, I'd love to have 15 teams in the JBL. I think it would be cool. Who could be the 15th? How about Cordo? He has JBL experience and takes his Pool participation quite seriously. So...it will be up to expansion coordinator - Commissioner Benny - to determine how many we should add. Good luck mon ami.
2) What is D-Wade's value in the JBL? Should I protect him for $69 dollars? Is he worth that? If we add another 2 teams his value definately goes up because scoring will be at an absolute premium. That being said...should I trade him for depth? There are a few teams in the JBL that could use his scoring. How about Trev and his Pancakes. He can only protect 2 players and has pretty good ones to choose from. Turkoglu, Prince, and Captain Jack. Would Wade be worth Turk and Prince? Is that a good deal for me? Is it for him? What about Wade to Tuna for Monta Ellis and Boris Diaw? What about Wade to Juan de Fuca for Durant and JR Smith? Maybe I should throw it out there?
Saturday, June 27, 2009
After Draft
Well, first of all, I'd like to say I kinda knew what I was talking about because I correctly predicted 7 of the first 14 picks exactly and also had 13 of 14 players going in the lottery. Only Jrue Holiday slipped. Man, I need to get a life.
What did I like??
Well, the Clippers didn't screw it up. They got their guy. However, I now read that the Clips could have moved Zach Randolph to Memphis for Darko and Greg Buckner. Why wouldn't you do that? Get rid of him. Apparently the move was blocked by owner Donald Sterning. Idiot.
I keep hearing there aren't many "stars" in this draft and that not many of these kids will contribute much next season. That being said, I like the James Harden pick at #3. The Sonics, er, Thunder, are starting to look pretty good. I think Harden will be a Fantasy factor next season as he can be the offense at 2-guard while Sefolosha will be the defensive stopper.
If Rubio doesn't come to Minny, then Jonny Flynn is going to have to play. They only have Sebastian Telfair left to play PG - and we know what he's all about. So, Flynn could be a fantasy factor simply out of necessity.
And you can count me as one of the people who think Stephen Curry will be good, very good. Whether he's in Golden State or Phoenix or somewhere else...the kid can score. Let's see, he scored 28ppg in college and now he's going to go to GS where all they do is run and score. HMMM. Seems like a good fit to me. Will GS be a better team? Maybe. But we know that Curry will be a factor for Don Nelson.
I felt sorry for DeJuan Blair. He was 1st round material but slipped all the way to #37. Apparently, he's had ACL surgery on both knees about 4-5 years ago. That being said, he averaged 16 and 12 in college and never missed a game. I guess the knee issues scared them anyway. So, there are the model franchise Spurs just waiting for him in the 2nd round. They needed some muscle after trading away Thomas and Oberto and they get the best rebounder in the draft!!! He could actually start at PF if needed next season. He is someone to keep an eye on simply for the "I'll show you" attitude he is going posess.
I also like the Nets and Bobcats picks in the 1st round. Terrence Williams in New Jersey could start from day one. They traded away Vince and they are clearly rebuilding. Williams played at a bigtime school (Louisville), is apparenly a funny outgoing kid, and is a jack of all trades (13ppg, 8rpg, 5ast).
And Gerald Henderson in Charlotte will push Raja Bell for minutes. Bell isn't getting any younger and Henderson, despite being a Dukey, could actually get some burn this coming season....
That's all for now....
What did I like??
Well, the Clippers didn't screw it up. They got their guy. However, I now read that the Clips could have moved Zach Randolph to Memphis for Darko and Greg Buckner. Why wouldn't you do that? Get rid of him. Apparently the move was blocked by owner Donald Sterning. Idiot.
I keep hearing there aren't many "stars" in this draft and that not many of these kids will contribute much next season. That being said, I like the James Harden pick at #3. The Sonics, er, Thunder, are starting to look pretty good. I think Harden will be a Fantasy factor next season as he can be the offense at 2-guard while Sefolosha will be the defensive stopper.
If Rubio doesn't come to Minny, then Jonny Flynn is going to have to play. They only have Sebastian Telfair left to play PG - and we know what he's all about. So, Flynn could be a fantasy factor simply out of necessity.
And you can count me as one of the people who think Stephen Curry will be good, very good. Whether he's in Golden State or Phoenix or somewhere else...the kid can score. Let's see, he scored 28ppg in college and now he's going to go to GS where all they do is run and score. HMMM. Seems like a good fit to me. Will GS be a better team? Maybe. But we know that Curry will be a factor for Don Nelson.
I felt sorry for DeJuan Blair. He was 1st round material but slipped all the way to #37. Apparently, he's had ACL surgery on both knees about 4-5 years ago. That being said, he averaged 16 and 12 in college and never missed a game. I guess the knee issues scared them anyway. So, there are the model franchise Spurs just waiting for him in the 2nd round. They needed some muscle after trading away Thomas and Oberto and they get the best rebounder in the draft!!! He could actually start at PF if needed next season. He is someone to keep an eye on simply for the "I'll show you" attitude he is going posess.
I also like the Nets and Bobcats picks in the 1st round. Terrence Williams in New Jersey could start from day one. They traded away Vince and they are clearly rebuilding. Williams played at a bigtime school (Louisville), is apparenly a funny outgoing kid, and is a jack of all trades (13ppg, 8rpg, 5ast).
And Gerald Henderson in Charlotte will push Raja Bell for minutes. Bell isn't getting any younger and Henderson, despite being a Dukey, could actually get some burn this coming season....
That's all for now....
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