A Twist to the Final 3??

So, it looks like we have 3 finalists for the Rookie Lottery.

1) Status Quo - exactly what we did this year. Each JBL team has one ball. Reverse order draw. 1st ball out gets 13th pick; 2nd ball out gets 12th; last ball out wins the lottery and gets the 1st pick

2) # of Balls Matches Standings - 1st place gets 1 lottery ball; 2nd gets 2; 13th gets 13 balls.

3) # of Balls Matches Keepers - top 4 teams can keep 4 players and get 4 lottery balls each; 5th to 8th can protect 3 players and get 3 lottery balls; all the way done. The one change - the 13th place team does get 1 lottery ball (because they get no keepers)

Those are the 3 finalists - each receiving 3 votes each.

As the voting process was underway I was thinking about different ways to enhance the lottery idea. One of the discussion points around some of the options is whether we should reward those teams who do poorly in the standings with less lottery balls or more lottery balls?? Do we want to reward them for being shitty? Or do we want to give them a better shot at being competitive?

So, thinking about the idea more - what if we started with the STATUS QUO idea. Each JBL team is guaranteed one lottery ball in the mix. However, JBL teams can earn additional balls by winning the weekly scoring periods. So far this season - Seoul, MBB and the Wack have won weeks 1-3 and would earn an extra lottery ball. In standard years - this would mean an extra 24 balls (matching the 24 weeks) could be 'earned'. Now, in this scenario, I'm well aware that the "better" JBL teams are likely to earn more lottery balls. Last year, Seoul won something like 12 of the 24 weeks and he would have a better chance at winning the rookie lottery. That being said, the lower teams would still be motivated to put out competitive line-ups all season long to try and earn extra lottery balls.

So, let's look at the scenario with BALLS MATCHES STANDINGS. The 1st place team would get 1 ball automatically and the 13th place team would have 13 balls. In this scenario, the 1st place team, because they finished in 1st place likely won a handful of scoring periods and would end up with maybe 8-10 lottery balls while the 13th place team maybe just has the 13 balls. This would be a far more balanced lottery and allows the better teams to 'earn' extra chances at winning the 1st Rookie Pick while still providing those bottom feeders with some hope as well.

Same goes for the option BALLS MATCHES KEEPERS. This is a more equal starting point with groups of teams with the same number of lottery balls to start with - but again, could earn additional balls by winning weekly scoring periods.

The more I think about these options as I put them on the paper - the more I like them.

Finding the balance between 'rewarding success' and 'finding parity' could be found in the 2nd option - BALLS MATCHES STANDINGS.

The JBL Champ will have just 1 ball based on his JBL title but would have likely earned several more throughout his championship run. This is rewarding success. The 13th place team, who might have suffered through injuries or bad luck would still have 13 balls in the mix for the rookie lottery. This would potentially allow him a good rookie to rebuild his franchise for the next season. Best of both worlds? Maybe...

So, here's my thought. I'll let this current poll play out. Let's make sure that the masses like the idea of 'earning extra balls' by winning weekly scoring periods. If that's the case, then I think the final 3 options becomes a final 6 options. The 3 as is and then the same 3 again with the ability to earn extra balls.

Any comments fellas? Good idea? Bad idea? Let me know what you think...

Week 3 Closing Comments...

Well, the rookie lottery choices are up...so far, leading the way with 3 votes each is "Balls Match Standings" and "Balls Match Keepers". Two very different schools of thought as to how the rookie lottery should work. And I respect both choices and I could live with either of these choices. Let me explain.

Balls Match Standings - this is more like the NBA model in that the higher you finish in the JBL standings the less chance you have of getting the 1st pick. The JBL Champ would have just 1 ball in the mix while the last place team would have 13 balls. To me, this makes the actual lottery more exciting because if the JBL champ's ball came out first - that's a true lottery miracle (a 1 in 91 shot). The other advantage to this choice is trying to balance the powers of the JBL or another way of looking at it - challenging those JBL owners who have constant success. Look at the current JBL standings - Phil Woo is leading the way AGAIN! Do we really need him having the chance of getting the best rookies too?? I get the side that says - "why are we rewarding the teams that finish lower in the standings?" I understand that - but one of the facts of the matter is that those JBL owners who consistently do well in the JBL- put more time into the league. Those teams that finish lower would greatly benefit from getting a good rookie to help their JBL cause. And of course, just because you get a top 5 rookie pick - doesn't mean that JBL owner will pick the right guy. And remember - we are talking about just 1 rookie player who has never played an NBA game in his life.

Balls Match Keepers - This is a motivation-based system that rewards success. Just like our keeper system. The better you do - the more keepers you get. The better you do - the more chances you'll get a higher rookie pick. While the chances aren't as staggered in this model as the 1st place team will have 4 balls and the 13th place team will have 1 ball - so the odds aren't quite as exciting. Is there enough motivation in this model for a late season charge from to get from 9th to 8th so the JBL team can get 1 extra rookie ball and 1 extra keeper? Perhaps. Either way - however, the vote goes - I'd be happy with either of these choices.

Week 3 is winding down and I've noticed a few things...

• My Showers squad did just fine without Dwyane Wade. Looks like it's time to move him for a stud shot blocker.
• Kyle Lowry has become a top notch fantasy PG
• The Wizards are bad and John Wall has not been a good fantasy player
• JaVale McGee is a block machine....Mutombo like
• Scoring this season is way down and reminds me of college scores.
• Injuries continue to mount - part of the JBL success is definitely going to be tied to how many many games are lost due to injury
• Kobe just ripped off 4 straight games of 40+ points - that sure helps Yuma when the league scoring average per JBL team is around 13ppg
• Looks like the Rookie of the Year race will be a two man show - Kyrie Irving and Ricky Rubio are heads and tails above the rest so far. And on top of that - Rubio is waaaaaay better than I thought he would be.
• And kudos to Idaho and Maui for finding rookie gems late in the lottery. Markieff Morris and Iman Shumpert were both very good picks
• Indy and Philly are both winning and are doing it with balance. It doesn't make for very exciting fantasy players however. Both teams have 6-7 guys averaging double digits in scoring

Team Needs

Brussels is last in 3PT% (27%) and last in scoring. They are 2nd in steals and 2nd in rebounds. He will also be getting Zach back in a few weeks. Sounds like he could move a big body for some scoring and 3PT help.

Maui is last in ATO - which I actually find a bit surprising considering he has Chris Paul, Monta, Odom and others. Maui is slowly gaining in categories as guys like Dalembert, Odom, and others wake up. Losing a 15-18ppg scorer like Beasley has also hurt.

Golden is 12th in blocks and 2nd in scoring and steals. This has been accomplished without much from D-Wade so if Wade and can leveraged for a big time shot blocker that would give Golden much more balance.

Montreal is last in rebounds and FG% while he's 3rd in blocks. How is this possible? Big men block shots. Usually they also rebound and make easy buckets. I just don't get this correlation. Montreal is really missing the production of Manu Ginobili but has to be very please with Kyrie and my new favorite big man Marc Gasol.

Arctic is last in steals and 12th in FG% while they are 1st in scoring. Sounds like they could use a thief that shoots 3's.

Seoul is 11th in scoring but is solid everywhere else. No wonder there's lots of interest in D-Wade.

TOP KEEPERS (1st Edition)

I know it's early in the season but all this talk about Rookie Lotteries and thinking about next season has got me in the mood to identify some of those guys I like as potential keepers. The list is loaded with Centers and Guards...

Here are my current favorites - in no particular order...

Marc Gasol $28 - look at his all around numbers - if only he could score 15+

Andrew Bynum $20 - dominant big man - will he change postal codes and be the #1 option?

Ty Lawson $10 - scoring, FG% and steals are very impressive for this little guy

JaVale McGee $16 - leads the league in blocks and adds 12ppg and 10reb.

Spencer Hawes $2 - so far he's been very good - big pay day in his future

DeAndre Jordan $6 - needs more scoring and boards - but blocks are sure nice

Jeff Teague $6 - 12ppg and 6ast and 2 steals per game. Great start to season

Ricky Rubio $10 - can't believe his numbers - 11pg and 8ast and 2 steals a game

Ryan Anderson $2 - 17ppg and 7reb and wicked 3PT%

James Harden $8 - 17ppg and all round numbers - breakout season underway

Others I like include - Gerald Henderson $1, Lou Williams $1, Paul George $8, Evan Turner $3, Markieff Morris $2, Brandon Knight $4, Kris Humphries $15, Mike Conley $14, Kyrie Irving $15, and Marcus Thornton $15.

I'm sure throughout the season these players will come and go from the list....

Enjoy football Sunday!

7 Lottery Choices...

I am posting this blog so we can have a clear definition of the 7 choices for the rookie lottery. I realize that the current poll shows 9 owners in favor of voting on the 7 ideas and 1 owner who doesn't like any of those ideas. What I don't have is any other suggestions...so, we're carrying on.

So, I'll try to keep these short and sweet. The type in bold will be the descriptor used in the poll. Owners can reference the concept here for more details. The hope is we can do an initial round of voting and narrow the choices down to 2-3 options and then vote again for the final round. Here are the potential 7 options for the JBL Rookie Lottery.

Option #1 - Status Quo - same as this year's lottery. One ball per team. Reverse order draw. 1st ball out gets 13th pick; 2nd ball gets 12th; last ball out gets #1 pick.

Option #2 - Reverse Order/No Lottery - no lottery balls here. Just reverse order based on last year's standings. 13th place gets 1st pick; 12th place gets 2nd pick; JBL champ gets 13th pick. Again, I'm not a fan.

Option #3 - Balls Equals Standings - 1st place team has 1 ball; 6th place team gets 6 balls; 13th place has 13 balls etc. 91 balls in total. 1st ball out gets 1st pick; 2nd ball out gets 2nd pick (standard draw)

Option #4 - Weighted and Tiered - Top 4 teams gets # of balls equal to their finish; 5th to 8th gets 8 balls each; 9th to 12th gets 12 balls each; 13th place gets 18 balls. 1st ball out gets 1st pick. (standard draw)

Option #5 - Money Winners No Lottery - Only 5th to 13th are lottery eligible. I would propose this one to be weighted towards the higher placed teams as well. For example, I would propose 5th to 8th place teams get 8 balls each; 9th/10th get 6 balls each; 11th/12th get 4 balls each; and 13th gets 2 balls. Money winners would be slotted in for rookie picks 10th to 13th based on reverse order of standings (JBL winner gets 13th pick)

Option #6 - Top 8 =2 Balls - Bottom 5 = 1 - simple. Top 8 teams get 2 balls and bottom 5 teams get 1 ball. Standard draw format.

Option #7 - Lottery Balls Match Keepers - again, simple concept, the number of lottery balls you get matches your keepers. 1st to 4th get 4 keepers so they get 4 lottery balls. 5th to 8th gets 3 keepers/balls; 9th and 10th get 2 keepers/balls and 11th to 13th get 1 ball each (yes, slight change - 13th place finisher gets NO keepers but we would give them 1 lottery ball)

So, there you have it. 7 options for the Rookie Lottery. I'll post the poll sometime tomorrow. Obviously, if someone has ANY other ideas - please post a message or an article for all of us to see. And remember to vote so we can narrow the list of 7 down to 2-3 finalists....

2 More Rookie Lottery Ideas...

Got some feedback today from Chilliwack...well, Halifax, but really Chilliwack...you know what I mean. Benny wants another option considered for the rookie lottery. And his idea definitely has merit. Why should we reward those teams that finish lower in the JBL standings with more chance of winning the lottery?? With that in mind...here is concept #6.

#6 - Reverse weighting system - Benny's idea would have the top 8 teams in the JBL standings all have 2 balls each while the bottom 5 teams would have just 1 ball each. For the bottom teams each year - the idea that you want to climb into the top 8 to get another ping pong ball would potentially keep the interest levels up...I'll take this concept one level further and suggest....

#7 - Weighted lottery that matches Keeper Guidelines. Top 4 teams in the Standings get 4 balls each; 5th to 8th get 3 balls; 9th ands 10th get 2 balls; 11th to 13th would get 1 ball each (yes, even the 13th place team would get 1 ball - but they wouldn't get any keepers). This really encourages JBL teams to succeed year after year. Those teams that don't do as well - better try harder next year.

Any other concepts out there??

Rookie Lottery Ideas...

Well, after not receiving one single idea from the JBL masses, I thought I would throw some of mine out there for the 2012 Rookie Lottery. I'm sitting here watching the Denver Tebow's or God's Team beat up on the Steelers. Come on, who didn't see this one coming? Bill Simmons got it right - you always take God and the points.

So, some rookie lottery ideas...

#1 - Status Quo - exactly how we did it this year. 1 ball for each team. Reverse order draw. 1st ball out gets 13th pick, then 12th, then 11th and so on. So, in this format, it doesn't matter where you finish in the JBL standings the year before - everyone has the same chance of getting that #1 pick.

#2 Reverse order draft picks based on JBL standings. You finish 13th - you get the 1st pick. 12th place gets you 2nd pick, etc... No lottery required. I'm not a fan - this wouldn't be any fun at all - but, it's an option. Would JBL teams try to finish lower in the standings to get a higher draft pick? Maybe - but at least we have the keeper system in place that would mean you wouldn't be able to keep as many players the lower you finished in the standings. Again, not a fan of this option at all.

#3 - Fully weighted option. The lower you finish in the JBL standings - the more chance you have to get the 1st rookie pick. We would need to figure out how to do this with ping pong balls so that we don't need 91 ping pong balls. Or, you know what, maybe we do just get 91 ping pong balls. If we labelled the balls with numbers ('13') then they could be used in future years. If In this fully weighted option - even the JBL winning team would be in the lottery and could get the #1 rookie pick. The 1st ball out would get the 1st pick. 2nd ball out gets 2nd pick and so on. So, the JBL champion (1 ball) would have a 1 in 91 (o.o1%) chance of getting the 1st pick. The last place team (13 balls) would have a 13/91 (14.3%) chance of getting the 1st pick.

#4 - Fully weighted and Tiered option. Similar to #3 option in that every team has a chance to win the lottery. In this scenario I would propose that there would be tiers where teams would have the same number of balls. Total number of balls in play =108 (9 dozen - makes it easy for purchase)

1st - 1 ball (less than 1% chance of winning lottery)

2nd - 2 balls (just under 2% chance)

3rd - 3 balls (just under 3% chance)

4th - 4 balls (just under 4% chance)

5th to 8th - 8 balls each (7.4% chance)

9th to 12th - 12 balls each (11.1% chance)

13th - 18 balls (16.6% chance)

#5 - Partially weighted option. In this scenario - let's say the top 4 JBL teams (money winners) would not be in the lottery. The other 9 teams go into the weighted lottery to determine picks 1-9. Then, the remaining teams would be placed in reverse order of standings. How many balls per lottery team would need to be determined. Then, once the lottery is determined for picks 1 to 9, the 4th place finisher would get 10th pick; 3rd gets 11th; 2nd gets 12th and the JBL champion would get the 13th pick. This is similar to the NBA model where the lower teams get the chance to add the better rookies.

There you have it....5 ideas for consideration. If anyone else has any ideas - I'm listening....

Week 2 Almost Over...

Wow - what a week. The JBL standings are starting to spread out...Seoul is rising to the top and Maui is sinking to the bottom. It's been a crazy week of injuries and observations from Golden headquarters.

Golden will have lost 11 man games this week when it's all said and done. That's essentially like playing the week with just 9 guys. It doesn't help that 5 of those man games lost were from Wade and Lowry. Hayes and Okur have also missed time this week. It's hard to know how your team measures up to the rest of the pack when you're only playing with 9 guys. At one point in week 2 Golden was over 800 points. By the end of the week, Golden will probably finish in the 550 point range. Such is the life of an injured fantasy team early in the season.

Week 3 will hopefully yield a healthy Wade and Lowry as well as see the debut of Marshon Brooks, Ian Mahinmi and Byron Mullens. It's a sad week for your JBL team when you have to start the last 3 names I just mentioned. However, these are the problems a team faces when you crap your pants in the JBL Auction.

So, these are the men that will be relied upon to provide some stats, any stats, for week 3. Compare them to the other JBL teams who have Gortat and McGee in Chilliwack. Or Amare and Hawes in MBB. Or Bynum and Jordan. Or Howard. Simply stated, the center situation in Golden is as ugly as Mullens porno facial hair.

It looks like there are some major bargains in the JBL this season. Some guys went for cheap and are putting up big numbers. There aren't many Centers you'd rather have so far than Spencer Hawes. He's putting up big numbers to date for a guy who went for a couple of bucks. Can he keep it up all year though? Andrew Bynum has also turned into a fantasy stud and is just $20 bucks. He could be the #1 keeper in the soon to be released 'Keeper Studs for 2012' list.

Has anyone checked out the numbers that Andrea Bargnani is putting up? Not bad for $21 bucks.

Or how about the early season numbers on this guy....

Mr. Harden is quietly averaging 18-5-4 and shooting almost 49% from the field.

And Steph Curry's fantasy stock took a huge hit in week 2. He suffered his 7th ankle sprain in the last 15 months. The kid is uber-talented but he just can't stay on the court. I'm sure that injury is a frustrating one for his French Lick owner.

That's all for now...it's late...Golden sucks.

Tuesday, Jan 3rd

Well, we're into week 2 and the more things change the more they stay the same. There's good old Philly Woo's Seoul Brothers back on top of the JBL standings with over 1000 points. What's scary about his team is that he's doing it all the while he has at least 3 guys underachieving big time (Josh, Brand, Millsap). Can you imagine the potential of this team when those guys turn it around? I hate to say it this early - but he's the team to catch right now.

Some other bigger name injuries are starting to role in. So far, Brook Lopez has been the biggest name to go down (it haunts me every day) but now Montreal is getting kicked in the nuts pretty hard. First he loses Manu Ginobili - who started the season on fire - for maybe a month...and now he loses Devin Harris to some kind of injury tonight.

MBB continues to be a strong contender early in the season. He's strong in every category except for blocks and rebounds so far this season. Losing Amare for a few games already hurts there but getting him back should help out immensely. He's getting big efforts from Lebron and Westbrook as we expected but he's also had huge help from Spencer Hawes early on. He's averaging 12 and 12 with wicked ATO and steals and blocks. He's doing it all. Before I looked it up I would have thought Spencer was mid to late 20's. Actually, he's 23. Can he keep up his magical start and sustain it for the season? I doubt it - but MBB is benefitting big time so far.

There have also been a flurry of trades in the last couple of days. French has been very busy. Before I get into his trades - when did he become the French Lick Legends? I thought he was the French Lick Celtics? I love the name change by the way. OK, so first off, French moves Blatche to Idaho for Diaw. After the deal, Blatche goes monster for Idaho and Diaw poops his shorts. Typical. Both players are good fantasy players and should both put up good fantasy numbers going forward.

Then French moved his 3rd centre Chris Kaman to Brussels for Dorell Wright. French had 3 very good centers and needed to move one of them to get another asset on board. Brussels was looking for a big with blocks and got that in Kaman. Both players have associated risks - Kaman is injury prone and Wright had a huge breakout season last year but has gotten off to a horrible start. Was Wright's season last year a fluke?? Will Kaman be able to co-exist with Okafor and Landry in NOLA?

And finally, French moves Jason Terry/Tyrus Thomas to Brussels for Boozer/Ilyasova. Brussels gets 3pt shooting and steals while French gets some much needed rebounding. The wildcard in this trade is Tyrus Thomas. He's now in his 7th year in the NBA and is always considered a breakout candidate. His best season was 08/09 when he averaged 10 and 6 and blocked 150 shots. What can be expected from him this season? He's already out with an injury and sooner or later this kid either has to become a starter and excel in the role or we're going to accept him for what he is - a 10 and 6 player who can block some shots now and again. Which Tyrus will show up?

Around the NBA tonight...

Charlotte vs. Cleveland. The other day I posted a poll about who would win rookie of the year. The majority said Rubio based on his stellar play. I wonder if that would change with Kyrie Irving's performance tonight? 20pts on 8/10 shooting and 2/2 from downtown with 6 assists and no turnovers and 2 blocks. Umm, yeah, that's nice. No one on Cleveland played more than 28 minutes and they scored 115 points. Not very good for fantasy stats but this Cavs team has some moxie. Jamison had a nice game and Tristan Thompson showed why the Cavs took him at #4 overall. The kid has potential and I'm sure Bangkok hopes he can get into that starting lineup for the Cavs right away. I give Rick credit, he started him this week. Charlotte got big games from Augustin, Maggette and Henderson but their bench didn't do anything. BJ Mullens and DJ White, both JBL free agents, continue to impress me in limited minutes while Boris Diaw has come full circle from looking like a nightly triple-double threat to crapping his pants on a regular basis.

Sacramento vs. Memphis. The Paul Westphal watch has to be on right? This team is struggling big time. They have no true point guard. The players are throwing the coach under the bus saying he runs no offense and they just run around out there. Cousins is acting up already. Mr. Westphal - time to update the resume. Did you know that in the 5 Kings games this season that the most assists one player has had in a game is 5 (Jimmer)?? And in 3 of the 5 games - the most assists in a game has been 3? They don't get any easy hoops. There aren't many players I like from a fantasy perspective in Kings land these days. Meanwhile, a lot of Grizz had big games. That will happen against a porous Kings defense. Even my $49 dollar man Rudy Gay broke out of a mini slump. Marc Gasol had a nice game as well. And Yuma received a nice surprise with the return of the highly underrated Mike Conley. 14pts, 7asts, and 4 steals in 22 minutes. Welcome back Mr. Conley.

Atlanta vs. Chicago. A night after the Hawks take down the powerful Heat they put up a measley 74 points against Chicago. Joe Johnson goes 3/17?? Yowzers. Josh Smith had his best game this season with 15/14 and some ticks. Derrick Rose goes for 30 and Luol Deng has another great game. There is no doubt he is the #2 man in Chi-town and Boozer is now a distant 3rd option. Chicago got all of 8 points from their bench and JBL specialists Korver and Gibson are barely noticeable these days. Joakim Noah puts up a monstrous 2 and 4 and quiets those critics who thought the Noah for Duncan trade was a one-sided affair.

Portland vs Seattle. Did you see what I did there? This game was played in OKC though - not Seattle. Curses! The L-Train dropped 30 and 8 continues to be a monster early this season. Anyone else noticing that Nate is really leaning on his core 8 guys right now? Lots of minutes to his starters. Good games from a lot of PDX players tonight. The defense of Wallace and Batum quieted Durant tonight as he only had 19 points on 8/26 shooting. Westy and Harden had big games. I kinda wished OKC got more out of Perkins in the middle. He's way better in real life than fantasy (6 & 6).

Utah vs. Milwaukee. 2 teams that are not very fantasy friendly these days. Jennings' game tonight is what drives his JBL owners crazy - he goes 4/19 and 0/7. You knew after I dropped Gooden he would have a monster game. No Bogut meant minutes for other bigs. Skiles drives JBL owners crazy as he has no set rotation when it comes to Gooden, Mbah a Moute, Ilsasova, Sanders, Leuer, and others. Delfino, S-Jax, and Ilyasova all struggled shooting tonight too. Utah was led by Jefferson (26 & 10) and get a good effort from Millsap as well. The rest of the Utah team is a crap shoot these days when trying to predict if any of them are going to have good nights. Favors had 5 blocks tonight and has shown he can play. But where is he going to get the minutes?

Houston vs. Lakers. Andrew Bynum. My oh my. 21 points, 22 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Crazy good so far. Kobe looked like he was 25 again and dropped 37 points. The highlight for the Rockets had to be Kyle's 22/10/9 line. He's turning out to be a darn good PG early on this season. My Golden squad hopes he can keep it rolling.

That's all for tonight. So far, ideas for the 2012 rookie lottery have been scarce. Or, should I say, non-existent. Not a single suggestion, idea, thought, or premise for me to build on.....