The Pick at #5

Well, here it is, Thursday night, a rainy horrible night and we're almost half way through our 2nd Annual JBL Rookie Draft. To recap, Anthony Davis went #1; Damian Lillard #2, MKG #3; Bradley Beal at #4 and today Golden selected Dion Waiters at #5. Or did I?

For the likely 3-4 people who see this blog - I'll break the secret right here - Golden made this selection for another team. Wednesday night, very late, Golden traded down in this rookie draft and made the Waiters selection for another JBL owner. The hope is that I can still land my targeted player at a cheaper salary. Not that $7 bucks was going to break the bank or anything - but if you can save a few bucks - why not right? We'll announce my trade partner on the JBL site soon (probably tomorrow). And hopefully MBB remembers to make his pick on time (remember last year when we had to wait an extra day for his #2 selection). Come on Bobby, don't let me down.

I have to say that Rookie draft has gone just as I expected so far...no real surprises. I was hoping that Beal would slip past Arctic but no such luck.

Speaking of Arctic, he informs me that he has his son's birthday party at 2pm on Saturday (27th) so he's hoping we can start on time (1pm) or maybe even a little bit earlier on Auction Day. We'll certainly do our best to start a little early if we can. Crikker will be going to auto-pilot for the rest of his draft so he'll hopefully be able to land a few players before he has to leave.

I'm looking forward to the Auction this year again. It really is the best day of the year. Even better than Christmas! Now, back to my Rookie and Auction preparation...good night all.

Auction Party & Rookies

Well, preseason hoops are underway and the joys of analyzing a box score have returned. Man, I love the NBA season.

As you know, I am willing to host the JBL Auction at my place this year. Auction starts at 1:00pm so for those of you who are planning on coming over...get here around noon so you have time to set up. I plan on taking my office and moving it into the kitchen. I'll move the modem/router into the kitchen too to ensure maximum signal. May need some of you techies to help me set that up.

We can do some snacks during the Auction and afterwards I was thinking of breaking out the poker chips. Maybe order some food. Make a night of it for those that are able. Again, my family will be in Vegas so why not right? Anyways, let me know if you are joining me at my place for the Auction.

Now, onto the Rookies. The rookie draft is just 4 days away and on Sunday, October 14th, Maui will be making the 1st overall pick. Rather than have me try to predict who everyone will take - figured I'd briefly go over some sleeper rookies for this coming season. I'm only going to mention a few so all you guys don't have to fret about me giving away your secrets. Besides, who reads this blog anyways??

Jared Sullinger - I'm interested to read how Doc Rivers is already talking about mixing up his starting lineup. Maybe Jared gets the nod over Brandon Bass at PF. Bass is a solid role player but I think we know what his ceiling is. He's a 12 and 6 type of guy. But what can Sullinger become? Do we know? Can he be more than that? He could have some potential as a late round guy.

Terrence Jones - The Rockets nabbed him at #18 but he was very impressive in the Summer League and now in his preseason opener he drops another 20 point game. He could very well jump into our 13 pick rookie draft next week.

Andrew Nicholson - The Canadian kid in Orlando could have some fantasy value later this season. He's a talented big man that is currently fighting for minutes with all those other mediocre bigs in Orlando. Does he get drafted in the JBL top 13? Unlikely, but he may have some value down the road if Orlando starts to clear out the veterans.

Andre Drummond - OK, I know he was a top 10 pick and I do expect he goes in our JBL Rookie draft but I've been really negative towards this kid since day one. He averaged like 10 and 6 at UCONN and shot 27% from the FT line. Plus, they say he's got a bit of an attitude. Doesn't sound too attractive yet does it? However, in his first preseason game tonight vs. Toronto he goes for 12pts, 7reb, 2stl, and 2blks in 23 minutes. Sure, it's just preseason but if this kid could have nights like that in the regular season - he could be worth grabbing for his blocks potential alone.

Nando de Colo - This San Antonio Guard is not eligible to be selected in the JBL rookie lottery because he wasn't drafted in the 2012 NBA class. However, he is a rookie and he could be another SA gem. He's fast and will be learning the PG position from Tony P so he has the chance to be a good one.

While I'm here and I mentioned the JBL Rookie Draft - remember - you can only pick players that were actually drafted in the 2012 NBA draft. So, Nando de Colo is not available for selection. Neither is 2011 draftee Jonas Valanciunas. And a final example would be Scott Machado in Houston. Yes, Machado was draft eligible in 2012 but he wasn't actually selected in the NBA Draft - he just signed on with Houston as a free agent. So, that's your subtle reminder not to try and take any of these guys next week when the 2nd Annual JBL Rookie Draft begins...

Major JBL News...

First off, it's October 1st and it's final cut down day...
I have to say - my predictions have been pretty good so far.
Chilliwack dropped Mr. Griffin. Idaho dropped Jordan. French dropped Gooden.
Juan de Fuca dropped Kevin Durant!! And MBB protected Lebron.

We're just waiting on Yuma's final 3 cuts and the 2012/13 can officially begin. That means that if Timbo wanted to trade his #2 lottery pick to Montreal for Jeremy Lin - he could do that. If Maui wanted to trade his #1 pick (Unibrow) to Chilliwack for Lowry, Mayo, and McGee - he could do that too. Even though the Auction is still 3+ weeks away - the season will officially begin once Yuma makes his final drops. All keeper/roster restrictions will be removed and teams can make trades. No, you will not be able to sign Free Agents.

As the Auction approaches a group of JBL owners had been discussing a potential road trip to Seattle or Portland to conduct the Draft. Maui, Idaho, French, Brussels, and Golden were all on board. Unfortunately, or fortunately (depending on how you look at it) - Golden is going to have to back out attending this roadie. Instead, for the first time in ever, Golden is willing to host the JBL Auction at my place on the 27th.

But Johnny - how on earth could you be hosting??

Well fellas, let me tell you...because my family will be in Las Vegas that weekend. My 9 year old soccer superstar has been picked up to play in a soccer tournament for another team and the family will be heading to Sin City for 4 nights.

Because of my amazing dedication and commitment to the 22 years and friendship of the JBL (and the fact I still have to coach my son's basketball and soccer teams while he's away) - I will be staying behind...

So, why not host as many JBL owners at my place to conduct the live Auction? It's a cheaper option than driving to Seattle/Portland and we can save up our road trip points with the wives for later in the NBA season when we can head down to PDX and watch the Blazers play. And of course - we'll be getting those all-inclusive food seats again!!

So - who wants to join me for the 22nd JBL Auction?? We still need to set a firm start time. Personally, I'd like to start in that 4-5pm range but I need to know if that works for everyone else. It's possible we could have 9 local JBL owners in the same room. Too bad Montreal, Juan, Chilliwack, and MBB weren't in town but it's possible to have the largest JBL owner gathering since Vegas.

So - I need a couple things from you guys...
1) can you make it to my place for the Draft?
2) what's the best start time? (please consider the folks back east)...I'd like to start before 7pm that's for darn sure.

Excited yet?? Oh yeah!

Predicting the Final Cuts...

Well, here we are into September and we're less than one month away from the final cuts for each JBL teams. All rosters are now down to a mandatory maximum of 6 players. Many teams have already reduced their rosters below this number but there are a few teams still hedging their bets over the next month.

However, when October 1st rolls around it will be time to make those final cuts to get down to your final list of keepers. I'm going to see if I can predict who gets dumped backed into the Auction.

Arctic (3 spots available on final roster). Currently still has 5 players on his roster. The 2 locks, in my opinion, are Ibaka ($14) and Faried ($11). That leaves 3 guys vying for one spot. DeRozan ($15), Favors ($13) and Sessions ($6) are hoping to land that final spot. I think Sessions is out of the question at this phase. He's just signed in Charlotte but that's a young team and should be building around Kemba, Biyombo, Kidd-Gilchrist, Henderson and others. I think Sessions will be serviceable but not a bargain at $6 bucks. It's down to Favors or DeRozan. Both are fighting are playing time with others on their teams. Does Arctic want some scoring with DD or does he want a beast-mode front line? Favors has 'potential star' written all over him while DD is who he is (I think). DD is the safe pick while Favors is the home run or strike out. Tough call but I'm predicting Arctic goes for the large front line and he keeps Favors.

Bangkok (2 spots). It's only Alonzo Gee ($8) left on the roster. The question is - does even Gee make the final cut come October 1st? I don't think he's even  got his deal done with the Cavs yet. And on top of that, he now has to fight with CJ Miles for playing time?? I wonder if the Kok even keeps him??

Brussels (no keeper spots). The world is your oyster young man. A fresh canvas for your new creation. The biggest question will be if Brussels can find a dance partner for his #2 pick? Timbo will likely try to leverage a player and a lower pick for the rights to that #2 rookie.

Chilliwack (4 spots). Benny still has 6 players on his roster and has to cut 2 guys. Blake Griffin ($59) seems a little pricey but at least you'd know what you're getting. Because of this price, I'm thinking Blake's on the outside and looking in already. So, we're down to 5 guys for 4 spots. Paul George ($13), Mayo $12, Turner $8, Lowry $36 and McGee $21 are the other choices. I think George and Mayo are locks because of their upside. Turner has some potential now that Iggy is out of town. However, look at his numbers and he really doesn't help much in those 'stock' categories. McGee is a blocking machine and Lowry was having a monster season before getting hurt. Does Benny believe in McGee and Lowry? Does he have faith that Evan Turner can make the jump? I think Benny goes with Lowry, McGee, George, and Mayo as his final 4 picks.

French Lick (4 spots). Hildy has narrowed his choices to 5 guys. Three of those guys, in my opinion, will be back in French for another season. Ty Lawson $15, Ryan Anderson $7, and Jeff Teague $11 are pretty much locks in my books. Even with Devin Harris arriving in ATL that doesn't change my opinion on the kind of year Teague will have. Those 3 are back in French. The final spot comes down to Drew Gooden $6 or LaMarcus Aldridge $45. Tough decision. The cheaper route is Gooden but he's going to have to fight for PT with Ersan, Sammy D, John Henson, Sanders, Udoh, and others. The other choice is more expensive ($45) but he's an All-Star. Aldridge is a stud. And $45 bucks is probably a good price for him too. The question will be if French believes LA is 100% after his torn labrum surgery and if he wants to build around the only true stud in PDX. I love Aldridge and would be happy with $45 bucks so I'm thinking French signs him on the dotted line. 

Golden (4 spots). Just 5 players remain. Three of those players will be back (barring injuries in September). Gortat $20, Ilyasova $6, and Pekovic $12 will all return to Golden. The final spot is between Isiah Thomas $6 and Tim Duncan $33. The youngster PG in Sactown who may have to fight for minutes with Aaron Brooks? Or the aging veteran who continues to put up solid numbers year after year after year? Unless I hear/read otherwise about Thomas not being the starter - I expect him to win the final spot (mostly because he's cheap). It's no secret, for those who have inquired, that I am looking at potentially packaging Pekovic or Thomas with my #5 pick for a lower pick and player. I like the rookie depth in this draft and would be willing to move down because I think there is value in 8-10 rookies. 

Idaho (3 spots). Idaho has the list down to 4 guys. 2 are locks in my opinion. Bynum and Harden are 2 of the best keepers going so they'll be back. The final spot is either Rubio $15 or DeAndre Jordan $11. The challenge with Rubio is his injury status. How many games will he play? 40? 50? 60? If he was healthy I think he's the choice - but the injury leaves some doubt. Jordan is a shot blocking machine and with a Center combo of Bynum and Jordan - Idaho would be rock solid in the middle. The downside to Jordan is that I think he is who he is. I don't see him ever being a 15/10/2 guy. He's around 8-8-2 with good FG%. He can rebound and block shots. A nice complimentary piece. Rubio or Jordan? Jordan or Rubio? Tough one...

Seoul (3 spots). Seoul has released everyone and is starting fresh. Good on ya Philly Woo.

Manhattan Beach (1 spot). Hmmm. Lebron for $77? Anyone? Ummm, yes please. Get used to it fellas, Lebron will be taking his talents to Manhattan Beach in 2012/13.

Montreal (2 spots). There are still 4 guys on the roster but I really think it's down to 3 guys for the 2 spots. Chandler Parsons $6 is still on the roster but really don't see him being a legit option compared to the other 3 guys. The choices are Marc Gasol $33, Jeremy Lin $12, and Kyrie Irving $20. Irving would be in Year 2 of a potential 5 year JBL rookie scale contract. Kyrie has to stay. He's a huge bargain. Plus, Kyrie gives us Uncle Drew. The 2nd choice is either Gasol or Lin. For trade market alone - it has to be Lin. 2 stud PG's in Montreal to start the year. Make it so.

Yuma (3 spots). Still 6 players on this roster. 3 more cuts to come by October 1st. The most shocking survivor of cut downs to date has to be Jimmer Fredette $12. Why is he still around? I don't consider him an option for one of the 3 spots. Another guy at peak value is Pau Gasol ($54). Is he a good keeper at that price? Not sure. I do like 2 guys a lot. Kawhi Leonard $10 and Kris Kardashian, er, Kris Humphries $20. Those 2 guys are locks. The final spot is between an aging Paul Pierce $32 and a young and emerging PG Brandon Jennings $22. I think, despite his 41/33 %'s, that Jennings may get the nod due to his youth, his health, and being the cheaper option. 

Maui (1 spot). Despite only having 1 keeper spot available there are still 6 players left on this roster. All are very cheap options but only one can survive. Iman Shumpert $6 is a good young fantasy player but is injured and miss some time. He's not the best option right now. Jordan Crawford $6 is cheap but can't shoot (40/28%) so he's out. Al Harrington $6 is an aging veteran on a rebuilding team in Orlando. He can't be trusted. I would say no. Samuel Dalembert $16 can block shots but has to fight for minutes in Milwaukee. Not sure he's actually a bargain at that price either. So, it comes down to 2 guys - Lou Williams $8 or Gerald Henderson $6. Both are appealing options in my books. They aren't studs by any means but both offer some cheap scoring and upside because of their situations. Flip a coin because both are solid #3 or #4 Guard options on a Fantasy team. 

Juan de Fuca (4 spots). 6 players still on the roster. Durant 72, Cousins 39, Chandler 28, Brandon Knight 9, Camby 9, and Gordon Hayward 6. I don't see how Camby fits as a keeper at this point of his career so I'm ruling him out. That leaves 5 guys for 4 spots. If Juan keeps Durantula and Cousins then their team is already shaped for next season as that's big dollars spent before the Auction has even started. The thing is, both those guys are good values at those prices. So, in a way, they have to keep them. Don't they? Brandon Knight, despite the fact he would be in year 2 of a potential 5 year rookie salary is the least appealing of the 5 guys remaining. If they went with KD, Cousins, Chandler and Hayward they will have spent $145 already heading into the JBL Auction. But what a core. Or, will Juan go the cheap route and keep Cousins, Chandler, Hayward, and Knight? Lots of options in Juan. That's why I saved them for last because they are the toughest for me to predict. 

That is my rant for tonight....have a good one.

JBL Offseason Continues...

Well, the lottery is complete and teams are now starting to look at their JBL rosters again as the start of the 2012/13 season isn't that far away.

Tonight, Brussels made it official and announced that his #2 lottery pick was up for grabs and that he was looking for a player and a lower pick. Smart move by Brussels has he looks to acquire talent for a roster that is currently empty.

Any trades will have to be delayed until October 1st after all the rosters have been trimmed. Why can't he make a move now? Simply because some teams still have 10 players on their team. Chilliwack can't keep 4 players for himself and then offer the other 6 players to Brussels for the #2 pick...that doesn't make sense. So, as previously discussed here in these Chronicles - teams must first reduce their rosters to the maximum allowable of players based on last season's standings. Once that's done - then trades (lottery picks or otherwise) can be made. The season essentially begins because Brussels is technically allowed no keepers for next season - so we have to start the new season for him to acquire players.

So, as you can see on the JBL site we have a couple of significant dates ahead.
September 1st - teams reduce their rosters to a maximum of 6 guys.
October 1st - teams reduce their rosters to maximum allowable # of players (4-3-2-1 depending on your finish)
Once all teams have reduced their rosters - then the 2012/13 JBL season can begin and trading is open and roster limits no longer apply.
IE. If Brussels can trade the #2 pick for 4 players - that's allowed after October 1st.

So - what kind of offers could Timbo get for that #2 pick??

The first team that jumps out at me is Idaho. Tuna holds the #11 pick and will have 3 wicked keepers. Bynum and Harden should be locks. The 3rd spot is up for grabs in my opinion. Rubio would appear to be the guy but he could miss half the season. Can Tuna wait half a season for this guy? Or would Jordan or Thompson be better options if he could turn one of them and the #11 spot into the #2 pick? This could be a discussion that Idaho and Brussels have in the meantime while they wait for that October 1st date to roll around.

The other team that has to be in the mix is French Lick. Brussels and French make a dozen trades every year so this could be #1 for 12/13. Or maybe Brussels wants to beat French this year? The last time Brussels finished ahead of French was way back in the 2008/09 season. Could Jeff Teague and the #7 pick spark any interest for #2? Or is the player available at #7 potentially too good to pass on as well as giving up a guy like Teague.

This JBL Rookie draft will certainly be interesting. Outside of the #1 pick - I think it will be very difficult to predict the order of the remaining JBL picks. It also depends on who is making that 2nd pick. Will it be Brussels or will it be another team? I see 4 top quality rookies in this draft. I see another 3-4 guys that could be very good. And I do think that there are 13 rookies worth drafting. Remember last year - we missed on a few rooks who saw action on JBL rosters (Biyombo and MarShon Brooks to name a couple). I'm sure we'll miss a couple again this year too.

I had already done some rookie research as I had expected to land the #13 pick in this lottery and there were a couple of guys I'd be interested in taking a flyer on for sure. That being said, I may consider moving down in this draft if the price was right. Again, I think it's a fairly deep rookie crop and some bargains may be found at the end of this rookie draft.

I love that Timbo sent that message tonight about the #2 pick. It's August 29th and I'm jacked about the JBL already. Love it.

Best Keepers??

With the 2nd Annual JBL Lottery just days away (August 26th), I thought it might be time to look at which JBL teams are best stocked for next season. I think there are 4-5 teams that set up quite well for next year with cheap talent. I do think that 3 teams are better than the rest though.

So, I'll start with honorable mentions....

Golden and French. Both teams should have a full complement of players (4 each) and are the #1 and #2 teams from last season. Could you imagine if either of these teams landed a top 5 rookie pick? Look out!

So, who are the best 'keeper' teams. As I mentioned, I think there are 3 really good ones.

Let's start with those Chilliwack Offs. Last years 4th place finish has earned him 4 keeper spots and I think he's had a good/lucky off season to set himself up for the coming season. I'm thinking Benny will bring back these 4 players - Evan Turner (8), Paul George (13), OJ Mayo (12) and JaVale McGee (21). Or he could bring back Kyle Lowry (36), Mario Chalmers (6) or even Blake Griffin (59).

Off season moves turned average keepers into potentially great keepers in the Wack. Evan Turner went from swing man option #4 to a 'core' guy in Philly with the trade of Iggy to Denver. OJ Mayo went from bench player in Memphis to the starting SG gig in Dallas where he should see increased playing time and put up decent numbers. Paul George is a mini-Matrix and McGee just blocks shots. Lots and lots of blocked shots. Even if Benny decides to bring back the newest Raptor Lowry - he could be a solid keeper as well. Lots of options in the Wack. This team has great keeper potential.

Another team building for a strong 2012/13 season is Arctic. He's got shot-blocker extraordinaire Serge Ibaka (14), manimal Kenneth Faried (12) and man-child Derrick Favors (8). Talk about rebound city. What a great 3 man option to start with if he so chooses. Could you imagine if Arctic's #8 ball comes out of the lottery first?? Those 3 guys AND the Unibrow!! Awesome potential.

And the 3rd team salivating for the upcoming season is the Idaho Udapimps. Andrew Bynum finally got moved out from Kobe and Pau's shadows and has his own team in Philly. What kind of numbers can he put up as the #1 option??? And he's only $25 bucks. Then he's got Ricky Rubio (15) just waiting to get back on the floor and pass to Love, Pekovic, Roy, and AK47. Assist after assist after assist after assist after assist...get my drift? And then he's still got James Harden (13) - reigning 6th man of the year he can bring back. Or he can go big and bring back DeAndre Jordan for 11 bucks. Or he could choose to bring back late season sensation Klay Thompson for just 6 bucks. 5 very good options but only 3 spots. Some tough choices will need to be made in Idaho.

So, there you have it - 3 teams loaded with keepers for next season. Watch out if any one of those teams end up winning the chance to add Anthony Davis to their already dangerous rosters.

Good luck boys!

The Lottery is 2 Weeks Away....

Here it is August 12th. One day before Ryan's birthday and 2 weeks before the 2nd Annual JBL Lottery. The ping pong balls are numbered. There is one #1. There are two #2's. All the way to thirteen #13's. Whichever number comes out of the box first on August 26th - the corresponding team from last years' final JBL standings will win the #1 pick in the October 2012 Rookie Draft. The tension will be high as we see that 1st ball get drawn.

Brussels has the most balls (13) in the box and the best chance of landing the chance to take the Unibrow with the 1st overall pick. Rumors are that Timmy has every intention of keeping the pick and taking Anthony Davis but you have to wonder what kind of potential offers will be thrown out there to the team with the #1 pick.

The drama does drop off after the 1st ball is drawn. However, I still believe the 2nd ball out and the 2nd pick in the JBL Rookie Draft will be an important one. Why? Because I think there are actually 6-8 impact Rookies from this year's class. So, even though 2-8 didn't win the right to the Unibrow they will have the chance to select some very good rookies. The challenge will be picking the right one.

Remember last year when no one picked up MarShon Brooks in the 13 rookie picks? Klay Thompson went 9th. Kawhi Leonard went 12th. And Kenneth Faried went 6th. There is talent available from 1-13 in the JBL Rookie Draft. You just have to know how to predict who will be good and who will bust. And of course, a great amount of luck comes into play.

So, after the Unibrow who are some other rookies who will have an impact?
How about MKG in Charlotte? They compare him to a Gerald Wallace or Scottie Pippen.
What about Bradley Beal in Washington? Can he start at SG? He only has to beat out Jordan Crawford.
Dion Waiters in Cleveland is likely to start from day one.
Thomas Robinson was a beast at Kansas last season and could see substantial minutes for the Kings.
Damian Lillard is the starting PG in PDX and says his goal is ROY.
Harrison Barnes could be the starter in GS from opening night.

That's 7 rookies listed above right there. What order you take them in is up for debate. It's also up to what your current JBL roster might look like. So, there should be a lot of interest as those ping pong balls get drawn.

But does this draft go deeper than 7 rookies? I think so...

Terrence Ross went 8th to the Raptors. Could he be a fantasy factor?
How about Andre Drummond in Detroit? He could end up as the starting C at some point this season.
Austin Rivers is gonna be good. Just ask him. He's Doc's kid. He has to be good right?
What about Meyers Leonard in Portland? Who else are they gonna use in the middle?
Jeremy Lamb could be the starting SG in Houston if they move K-Mart.
John Henson had a nice summer league in Vegas for the Bucks. He could be a cheap source of blocks.
Moe Harkless was a key piece of the Dwight Howard deal and only has an aging Turk to beat out.
Terrence Jones and Royce White could get time in HOU depending on the rotations.
Jarred Sullinger was once a top 5 pick and could get some run for an aging Celts team.
Tyler Zeller could see time for the Cavs as Varejao is injury prone.

I really like this rookie crop. I think there are more than 13 worthy picks for the JBL Draft. Last year was a lot tougher and many of the guys selected didn't last long on their teams. This year should be a lot more fun. Now, the question is who can figure out the right guy to draft.

Good luck....