JBL XXX – Preseason Power Rankings…

Well gentlemen, here we are, just a week away from the JBL’s 30^th season. Amazing to think how long some of us (and really the majority of us) have been doing this basketball pool. Some with more success than others of course but yet we keep coming back for more. And really, the time from JBL draft night to the start of the regular NBA season might be one of the best times of the year. Why? Cause everyone is level. Everyone has 750 points in the standings. Everyone has hope. Everyone thinks they’ve drafted a team that could win the toughest Fantasy championship in all the land. And then the NBA season starts and reality kicks in….

As is tradition, I will now provide my annual Godfather preseason rankings. Last year I called French, Golden, Chilliwack, Bangkok and Maui as top 5 teams. Chilliwack and Maui were devastated by injuries and fell from contention. The Kok hung around for awhile but eventually fell victim to Seoul mind tricks. Idaho jumped into 2^nd as the team he drafted last season were all traded away in a couple of weeks and Cali exceeded all expectations and found a nice cozy home in the upper echelon of the final standings.

So, what about this year? How does it look? This will be very difficult to do as we never know about injuries and now we’ve added the dreaded Covid factor into the equation. I heard rumblings through Woj and Shams that many JBL owners were factoring in which players are most likely to get covid (ie. Lou Williams at the strip club). So, my rankings are based on the roster you have right now, using my projections, while also trying to factor in the injuries your team is dealing with to the start the season as well as your activity levels in the pool. (ie. I will call this the Idaho factor since he makes 37 trades a season).  Don't shoot the messenger essentially, we're all here for the fun of it. And if you feel different about these rankings, please post your thoughts below as it always makes for good banter. 

Without further ado….here we go. 

#1 – French Lick

What can I say about the team that has won 4 of the last 5 titles? Oh I know, the one year French didn’t win, he finished 2^nd. What more do you want to show French has figured out the secret sauce of the JBL? His 4 keepers were all very good values and that can be a real key to winning the JBL. We all know that the budget is $260 but with great keepers, French was drafting with a $325 budget. We know that Simmons, Tatum, Brown and Robinson would go for WAY more at auction so French is ahead of the game to begin with. There was also a very telling moment in the auction for those on the zoom call. At one point, as French and Golden were in a bidding war over a player the mighty Bangkok stated, “Should we be taking note that French and Golden are in a bidding war over this guy?” Interesting comment. And yes, you should take note.   

Why French can win:

French is stacked. Top to bottom. He does everything well. He knows what he’s doing and has really good players. I really don’t need to go through the list. It’s a balanced team where the highest price guy is $34 bucks. Nothing more to say. French is the team to beat. Again. 

Why French won’t win:

Injuries to Porzingis and Warren turn out to be more significant than projected. Maybe Chris Paul in PHX doesn’t work out as planned. And of course, the old injury bug finally strikes in French Lick.  Do Jordan and Green reach their projections? They are both aging and maybe don’t find their mojo again. Will Thibs hold back the blossoming Robinson? They are some cracks here that could come into play. We’ll have to wait and see how it goes but recent history shows us French will be in contention. 

#2 – Golden

I always seem to like my team coming out of most auctions – which hasn’t proved to be very good over the last couple of years. Last year I was struck down by injuries with both Kyrie and Otto flaking out while John Collins was busted for juicing. Can’t win when your best players miss games (ask the Wack). Golden is hoping to avoid any major injuries this go around and rely on a well-balanced team that should perform well in all 7 categories. Adebayo, Nurkic, and SGA again should all provide more value than what their JBL salary is. Aldridge, DeRozan, and Middleton add to a strong core. Solid but unspectacular guys like Curry, White, Fournier and Smart should provide support for this currently deep roster.

Why Golden can win:

The team stays healthy and the big names (Aldridge and DeRozan) remain in situations to put up similar stats. Breakout candidates White, Clarke, and Bazley perform well. 

Why Golden won’t win:

DeRozan, Aldridge, and Fournier are traded to teams where their performance drops. Breakout candidate Bazley underperforms and the Golden ‘special water pond’ that contaminated John Collins last year strikes again.

#3 – Brussels

Despite the chat room being down on this squad, this is a very deep and talented roster. The only slight weakness, in terms of categories, I see on the surface could be in 3PT%. This team is very deep with Doncic, PG13, Kawhi, Sabonis, FVV, Wood, Bridges, and Horford as the backbone. This team has requisite late round guys like Bridges, Thybulle and Garland who could have breakout years for this squad. I like what Brussels has done here. He appears to be trying to model his ways after his good buddy French. I think we can safely say the days of Brussels and French hooking up on 10 player deals are over and done with. 

Why Brussels can win:

The three-headed (P-cubed) monster of big men (Plumlee, Poeltl, and Powell) all reach their lofty projections. Adding quality production from these big men only solidifies the core.

Why Brussels won’t win:

The 3 headed monster of big men don’t hit. And what if the Clippers duo of Kawhi and PG13 don't work out? Another possibility could be Timmy getting in the way of himself. Trader Tim loves to trade. But can he resist the temptation? Can he hold back where/when necessary? 

#4 - Chilliwack

Another team I really like coming out of the auction. Benny is clearly working a 3PT% punt right now as his only deep marksmen appear to be KAT and Powell. This is another deep team that has a lot of quality from 1 to 15 on the roster. The wildcard in the Wack’s success is actually his former MVP – Mr. Harden. Where does James play this season? Does he remain in Houston? Or does he go elsewhere? What kind of numbers does the Beard put up on another team? I would imagine whether he’s in Philly or Brooklyn he will still be putting up huge numbers. That’s why I’m calling Harden the steal of the draft (for big names) at his $48 dollar price tag.  Considering guys like Vucevic, Butler, and Beal all went around the same price, Harden feels like a bargain. And yes, his 3PT jacking doesn’t help – but when you’re scoring 30ppg and getting 125 steals and 60 blocks from a guard position – you’ve got a good deal. 

Why Chilliwack can win:

The Wack finally stays healthy and now has some depth to work with. He’s got a lot of ‘middling’ big men and if they work out he will get the big man stats he needed. The Wack could/should have at least four 20ppg guys and is very strong in all the categories. If the Wack can even get to be a middling 3PT% team then this could be his year.

Why Chilliwack wont’ win:

His middling bigs (Boogie, Theis, Holmes, Zubac, Favors) don’t pan out. There are injury, age, and timeshare concerns with those guys that could factor in here. 

#5 - Seoul

Another strong draft from Seoul in my eyes. We battled on a number of players (Adams, Tobias, Lavine, Collins) so this squad has a lot of guys that were on Golden’s radar. We know Seoul is good for a couple of trades with the Kok to get his better players so I would imagine this Seoul squad does change quite a bit over the year.

Why Seoul can win:

Zion and his band of merry men stay healthy and match projections. This team boasts potentially six 20ppg guys. They can rebound and shoot so there is lots to like with this team.

Why Seoul won’t win:

The ATO on this squad projects to be dead last. That’s not good. Also, does this squad have enough blocks? Will Zion stay healthy and how does that pairing work with Adams? How does Collins fit in with the suddenly deep ATL roster? Does Kyle stay in TO and can he stay healthy? Can the role players (Rozier, Jones Jr, Zeller, Hernangomez) make enough of an impact when called upon?

#6 - Idaho

Again, as mentioned above, the roster Idaho drafted will be vastly different in a few weeks time. He’s already moved on from Westbrook and Nunn (which was a good deal for Idaho). And we know Idaho works the waiver wire and makes countless trades so this team has a load of potential to move up in the rankings. This is a deep team with a lot of depth but there are some injury concerns already with JJJ to start the season. 

Why Idaho can win:

It’s finally his year. He’s been saying it’s his year for many years, so why not this year? Idaho will turn over the roster where needed. He seems to win trades when he makes them (maybe he wears us down so much that we just give in?). Idaho could win it if he turns the weaknesses of this squad into strengths.  Plus, as mentioned, this is a deep roster and it should be able to manage through a couple injuries if needed. 

Why Idaho won’t win:

The JBL Gods are listening. I don’t love the percentages of this team right now and I think the ATO is weak as well. What does Idaho do with the 3PT jackers like Markkanen, Gordon, and now Carter Jr? Outside of Ayton, is there a player on this roster that will shoot over 50%?  I honestly wouldn’t want Idaho to draft a team that he loved from the get-go – cause that would leave our Inbox empty.  That said, imagine the chat room if Idaho ever wins this thing. 

#7 – Bangkok

Anytime the Kok gets pegged in the 7-hole I’m sure the Wack will pipe in with some witty comments about the Kok’s average finish in the JBL over the years. But I’ll leave that to the Wack to chime in on. I’m here to talk about this Kok team that is top heavy. They can shoot FG%, rebound and block. All strong in my opinion. He’s got the big boys, Giannis, Jrue, the Headmaster Jamal Murray, Pascal and OG and Mr. Whiteside. All good picks if they perform up to potential. The concern for me is the depth of this team. Do we know what Luke Kennard, Josh Hart, Cedi Osman, Jaxson Hayes, Hunter and others are going to provide week in and week out? Not yet anyways. I like Donte and Troy Brown as upside guys but I’m still left with some questions about the guys in the 9-15 spots on this roster. My favourite youngster on this roster is definitely Malachi Flynn. 

Why Bangkok could win:

The big boys are awesome and these depth guys have big, breakout seasons. Wiseman wins ROY and others step up in big ways and Mr. Whiteside carries over the success he had last year in PDX. 

Why Bangkok won’t win:

The team’s depth doesn’t pan out. The team doesn’t look to be strong in 3PT% or ATO at this point. 

#8 – Cali

Cali is coming off a 5^th place finish from last season when I didn’t like the looks of the team at all coming out of last year’s auction. This year, it’s much better, but I still have questions. To me, this is looking at the all comeback roster. Cali is counting on big years from Durant, Oladipo, Otto Porter, Capela and others to have big years after missing time due to injuries last season. I like the 3-headed monster potential of AD, KD, and Clint Capela. Much like last year’s team that didn’t care about scoring, I’m wondering if this current version has enough PTS as well. And the ATO in this group appears concerning as well. Cali’s 2 rookie selections are both having decent preseasons and could factor into this roster on a weekly basis. 

Why Cali could win:

Passion and dedication. Who doesn’t love the Marko post in the chat room? He’s all in and I love it. Plus, he’s backed by NASA scientists working in some secret war room in California so anything is possible. If things are working, Cali will be willing to make the necessary adjustments to the roster. The JBL is just better with Marko in the pool. 

Why Cali won’t win:

Winning the JBL without valuable keepers is very difficult to do. While Cali brought back Johnson and Oladipo I’m not sure they are providing as much value as some of the other teams. A lot of things need to go really well for this current roster to win it all.

#9 – Norfolk

This team can score. Flat out put it in the basket. Led by downtown dynamos Lillard, Trae, and Booker this team should score a lot of points and be very strong in 3PT%.  This is another team though, like Bangkok, that I wonder about their depth guys. Will Kanter earn enough minutes in Portland or be pushed to 3^rd string by hard charging Harry Giles? Will Dinwiddie and Prince get to touch the ball in Brooklyn? Will JJ Redick and Cole Anthony carve out roles in NO and ORL to be fantasy relevant? And outside of Drummond, who grabs the rebounds on this team? I like the scoring of this squad but wonder about the other categories.

Why Norfolk could win:

The back end of this roster turns into gold. Dinwiddie is traded and lights it up somewhere else; Cole Anthony becomes a star in ORL; and the “big boys” of this roster continue to excel in everything they do. Norfolk will have some roster adjustments to make but at least he’s got the scoring part sorted out.

Why Norfolk won’t win:

The Drummond factor could play a role here. Does he get traded? Does he still put up monster numbers? Does Trae get impacted by ATL’s new found depth? Can Booker expand his fantasy game beyond just PTS?  A lot of questions still to answer as the season gets underway with this squad. 

#10 – Juan de Fuca

This is a pretty decent Juan roster. As I review and type this I’m wondering if this slot is too low already? I’m concerned about this teams’ ability to shoot 3PT% and get ATO though. I see those 2 categories as massive drawbacks. This team will need some big seasons from guys like Noel, Michael Porter Jr and PJ Washington in order to climb the rankings. Lebron and Westy are leading the way but we’ve already heard that Westy will be rested in back-to-back games so there go some man games already. What about LeBron? Does he get rested too? I really feel like this team go up or down quite easily as I review the projections. It’s a deep team but I’m really not sure about the depth. Is Nunn still good? Is Edwards good? Is Graham going to be able to do it again now that LeMelo is in town? I have so many questions about this team…..

Why Juan could win:

What if everything played out the way Juan is hoping? Edwards is ROY. Devonte has a big year. Porter Jr breaks out. Thibs plays Noel 40 minutes a night. LeVert becomes a star after he’s traded. Rui improves in WASH. Baynes is a hit in TO. Anything is possible at this time of the year. 

Why Juan won’t win:

Just too many unknowns about this roster. 

#11 – Maui

The best theme team in a long time gets a bit of love here. First of all, we draft 210 players in our JBL pool and Trev decided to focus on just those players with the last name starting with B. How many guys does that narrow the field down to? By rough count it appears there are roughly 60 guys that would qualify for this B team. So, Trevor was behind the 8-ball sort of to begin with but he did pretty well considering his parameters. I’m not sure if the B team model holds for the season? Will Trev only sign B-named FA’s? Or will the team transition to a more normal looking roster over the year?  As it stands now, this team will struggle in Blocks and FG% - but that was going to be the case anyways when you have the Ball brothers on the roster. This team looks to be OK in steals, ATO and 3PT% and even in scoring so this will be interesting to watch. A core of Butler, Bryant, Brogdon, Bledsoe, Ball, Bagley, Bertans, and RJ Barrett is pretty darn good considering the parameters of what he tried to do. For the only other 30 year member, I say congrats to Trevor for creating this theme team.

Why Maui could win:

He gets Beal and Booker (and some Blocks) in trades….and guys like LaMelo, Barrett and Bagley all have monster years.

Why Maui won’t win:

A limited field of players available if there are injuries to this roster (unless of course the B theme was just for the auction).

#12 – Arctic

Arctic started strong with high scoring keepers of Wiggins and Russell and added Kyrie and Gobert to the roster very quickly at auction. I feel Vucevic was a tad high in terms of price but he is a very good fantasy player. I love the Hayes pick for his rookie. I think this roster will look very different in the next few weeks as the last 6 players on this roster were all auto-pilot picks for $1 late in the draft. If Arctic can turn those over into more productive players I think this team has the potential to move up the rankings a few spots. But as currently constructed, this is where the Arctic lands.

Why Arctic could win:

Some shrewd FA signings and big years from Hayes, Herro and his big boys could lead this bunch up the standings.

Why Arctic won’t win:

The depth guys just don’t come through. Lots of work to do with this roster but let’s reserve judgment until we see some changes.

#13 – Bellingham

This is a much better roster than Bellingham’s first crack at the JBL. That said, this team is coming off a 13^th place finish and needs to continue to move up the standings and get good keepers in order to solidify the base of the roster. There are some really good options on this squad with Curry, Beal, and Hayward leading the way. Add in secondary guys like Wall, Allen, Ibaka, and Love and we’re getting there. Some of the depth guys will need to have solid seasons and this team does have the potential to move up the standings/rankings this year. 

Why Bellingham could win:

His big boys are great and the roles guys have bigger years than expected (ie. Jerami Grant, Boucher, Kevin Porter).  The potential is there with this squad so let’s see how he manages the roster over the coming weeks. The JBL isn’t easy and started as an expansion team is hard. But there is a path….

Why Bellingham won’t win:

Again, it’s hard to win without great keepers to set up your core. The Ham N Eggers should be focused on getting into that top 8 and getting 3 keeper spots to set themselves up for a big 21/22 season. 

#14 – Vancouver

Toughest act in the JBL is trying to compete when you don’t have any keepers to start your season. Vancouver was working under those constraints and is trying to build a roster to move up and get some keepers for next season. I like the Jokic and Embiid pairing but outside of Joel – who is going to block shots on this team? I think this team will struggle with percentages as well. I think the realistic expectations for this squad would be again, shoot for top 8 and try to get 3 keepers for next season. 

Why Vancouver could win:

The Jizzlies stay covid-free while the rest of the JBL is ravaged by the virus. Blake Griffin turns back the clock. Coby White becomes a star. Jokic learns to block. Obi Toppin averages 20/10. I could go on….

Why Vancouver won’t win:

For the umpteenth time, you need a good couple of keepers, undervalued, to start as the base of your JBL roster. One step at a time. Get some good keepers and then build from there. 

OK, that’s it for me and my Godfather preseason rankings. Just the fact that the chat room is going crazy over my opinions on fantasy basketball makes the JBL a pretty fun place. I hope you enjoyed the read. I think the best thing about my rankings is that they are usually wrong so everyone can still feel safe and secure that they really do have a chance at this year’s JBL title.

Best of luck to everyone this season. 

The Federer Debate

The Case Against Federer’s GOAT Status

I thought we could have a break from basketball to expand on the debate of Federer’s GOAT status.

The best case for Federer’s GOAT status is not his dwindling Grand Slam (GS) lead over Nadal and Djoker. Rather, it is the fact that he holds a substantive lead over both in terms of “weeks-at-number-1.” I think this is a great stat given how brutal ATP point system is (to maintain your points, you have to meet or exceed performance at each tournament… in a way penalizing excellence and only rewarding the ability to exceed one’s performance). 

Weeks at Number 1 – ATP MEN

Rodger Federer – 310

Pete Sampras – 286

Novak Djokovic – 276

Ivan Lendl – 270 

Jimmy Connors – 268 

Rafael Nadal – 209 

It is highly unlikely that Nadal will be able to reach Federer on this stat given that he is injury-prone and 33. Djokovic, 32, may. However, we are starting to see young guns like Medvedev, Thiem, Tsitsipas, and Zverev start to get results. So, I think it is a 50-50 whether even Djokovic catches Federer (although he will definitely pass Sampras soon by the end of Q1). 

So, is that it? Does Federer remain the GOAT if he remains at the top of this stat? Maybe. 

The main criticism I have against Federer’s 310 weeks is that 237 of the 310 (76%) came in the February 2, 2004 to August 17, 2008 stretch, a stretch during which Federer also won 12 of his 20 Grand Slam titles. Let’s recount the illustrious tennis greats that Fed defeated in this epoch of greatness: 

Federer’s Epoch of Greatness 

2004 Australia: Safin (total GS titles at that point in his career: 1)

2004 US Open: Hewitt (2)

2004 Wimbledon: Roddick (1) 

2005 US Open: Super old, 35-year-old, Agassi (8)

2005 Wimbledon: Roddick (1)

2006 Australia: Baghdatis (0)

2006 US Open: Roddick (1) 

2006 Wimbledon: Nadal (2)

2007 Australia: Gonzales (0)

2007 US Open: Djokovic (0)

2007 Wimbledon: Nadal (3)

2008 US Open: Murray (0)

To be clear, Federer feasted during this stretch of dominance on Safin, Roddick, Baghdatis, Gonzales, a thirty-five year old Agassi, and 21 , 22, and 22 year old Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray. Federer and Murray were as green as some of the young kids today. Nadal’s three GS wins all came from the French Open. Think of the three of them like Thiem, Medvedev, and Tsisipras at this point in their career. 

Now, wins are wins. Period. If Federer was a flaky player (like an early-career Novak), he would have lowered his guard and had a much weaker track record. He would have played to the level of his competition (a great criticism against Djokovic, by the way). And for that I respect him. Federer is, indeed, a machine. As his country’s greatest contribution to humanity, he is a finely tuned mechanical piece of art. He does not skip or delay. He just tics. Without a flaw and without a hitch. And we should all give him respect for that. 

But I cannot look at that 76% of his weeks at number 1 any other way. It is feasting on children and scrubs (and an Agassi so hopped up on cortisone he probably will have liver damage thanks to that 2005 US Open final). The combined number of Grand Slams held by his opposition in those finals over a FIVE-YEAR STRETCH (2004-2008) – and the most important stretch of his life in terms of records – is EIGHT. EIGHT GRAND SLAMS. That is the combined total of Grand Slam titles of ALL the opponents that he faced during that time (number of GS they held under their belt). 

Now this is actually not true. I exclude Agassi from the calculation because he was 35 and thus his actual skill level in 2005 was not equivalent to his record of eight GS titles. But let’s add him to the list. Agassi himself had eight and thus doubles the number of GS titles Federer’s opponents had during this all-important stretch of GS titles to 16. Literally one guy. Doubles. The total. One guy who Federer defeated in his prime, nine years younger, for one of the 12 titles. The other 11 finalists? Eight. Titles. In. Grand. Slam. Finals. 

WOW. 

The only player that Federer faced in those finals with any serious chops was Hewitt, with two GS titles. But he was already hurting and would never reach another GS quarter final from Q1 2005 onwards.  

Still, maintaining excellence is impressive and thus Federer’s 310 weeks at number one is an amazing, GOAT, feat. There is no argument that Federer’s 310 weeks make him one of the top-5 tennis players ever. He is, by far, the most consistent tennis great. Much like Kareem Abdul Jabbar sits at the top of the point-scored mountain in the NBA. Federer is Kareem. And anyone who says that Kareem is not a top-5 player, and in the conversation for the GOAT, is crazy.

What about the 20 Grand Slam titles? Why not focus on that stat? Is it not the most relevant stat in picking a tennis great? 

Well, first, obviously Nadal and Djokovic are nearing it. If Djokovic ends up winning 21 Grand Slam titles, but does not get to 310 weeks-at-number-one, is the debate over? Of course not! Grand Slams are not everything. And I would not give Djoker undisputed GOAT status purely because of a 21-win total (especially when half of them will be, bizarrely, from Oz).

What makes GS special? The three sets? The pressure? Sure… but Masters tournaments are just as competitive given the attendance of all top-32 players at each (barring injuries). Just to be clear, I am talking only about the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (every year, there are nine of these, here is the list). For some very strange reason, Federer only has 28 titles over his career. Despite a stretch of his career in which he could have feasted on sub-par and young competition (2004-2008), Federer has six less titles than Djokovic (34) and seven less than Nadal (35).  

If we combine their GS + ATP 1000 totals, Nadal is suddenly the top dog, by a substantive margin over Federer. 

GS + ATP 1000 career wins

Nadal – 54

Djokovic – 51 

Federer – 48

This is a really weird stat. How do we explain Federer’s amazing, clockwork, dominance between 2004-2008 in terms of Grand Slams (12) and his rather poor effort at ATP 1000 tournaments (only 13 wins in those five years)? Just to be clear, during this stretch, Federer won 12 out of 20 possible GS titles (60%) and just 13 out of 45 possible ATP 1000 titles (29%). Given the number of years under examination (2004-2008) and the number of tournaments contested, the percentage drop is fairly statistically representative. In fact, in 2006 and 2007, Federer only won 6 out of possible 18 Masters titles, but still won 6 out of 8 Grand Slams. 

Why the massive decline in Master performance in those two years? 

Because Federer is as contrived as Djoker. But whereas Djokovic cannot help it (it is his personality), Federer is a result of C-Suite planning. He is a product of careful PR manufacturing that his loyal fans have fallen for. 

While Djoker wears his emotion on his sleeves and does not know how to adopt proper Western social cues (he grew up while being bombed by NATO people!), Federer is polished. He is well coached by the Nike-Rolex PR machine that ensures he says the right things at the right time. But that machine also forced him to favor Grand Slams over overall excellence. It is what explains his mental absences and dubious performances at ATP 1000 tournaments. A more than 30% points lower win percentage in ATP 1000 tournaments relative to the glitzy Grand Slams? This doesn’t happen by accident. 

Now look, we cannot say that ATP 1000 tournaments are equal to Grand Slams. But ATP already adjusts for this fact given that Grand Slams are worth 2,000 ATP points to just 1,000 for Masters tournaments. Is Australia really worth two times the prestige of Indian Wells? Personally, I would argue HELL NO. But hey, let’s go with that – overstated – measure of GS importance. Let’s adjust the career win total by the awarded ATP points. So, each Grand Slam gives you 2,000 points and each ATP 1000 title gives you 1,000. When adjusted for ATP point totals, Nadal still comes out on top:

Career Totals: Grand Slam + Masters ATP Points: 

Nadal – 73,000 

Federer – 68,000

Djokovic – 68,000 

I generally agree with Nadal detractors that claim his early career dominance of clay made him a one-trick pony. So, I am perfectly fine saying that Federer remains the GOAT in this moment, right now. But we all know that Djokovic will obviously overtake him in career ATP point totals won in GS and Masters tournaments given that he already matched his career record at 32. 

Furthermore, both Nadal and Djokovic reached their point and title totals while playing against each other and Federer in their prime. I won’t recount the “GS titles won by opponents” from above that I did for Federer as obviously the numbers for both Novak and Djokovic are immensely greater than for Federer. Let’s also not forget Andy Murray, the much maligned and hated pro who nonetheless won three Grand Slams and spent 41 weeks at number 1. Those are not numbers to scoff at and certainly are better than anyone Rodger Federer faced in that 2004-2008 stretch that so much of his dominance is based on.

Finally, two non-empirical, personal, issues with Federer. 

First, I have a bias against dominance. I cheered against MJ, against the Patriots, against Michael Schumacher, and against the Austrian ski team. So, I personally was not sitting around in 2004-2008 and getting excited for someone beating scrubs and youth to 60% of their Grand Slam title total. I don’t understand how anyone else could have sat there and admired Federer destroying Safin in multiple GS finals. I obviously respect Federer, but I don’t respect frontrunner fans who became his zealots in that particular stretch. 

While Federer was destroying Roddick and Baghdatis, I longed for the days when Sampras, Agassi, Edberg, Courier, Becker, Lendl, Chang, and Rafter could at any one time win a Grand Slam final. That was the golden era of men’s tennis. The 1990-1997 stretch that stands out as viciously competitive era during which being in the top-10 on the ATP list meant something (I’m looking at you Monfils!).

And yet, despite the number of greats who played in that era, Sampras somehow still managed to win 14 Grand Slam finals. To me, Pete has a very strong claim to GOAT status as result of this era. The one (major) black mark is that he never managed to win Roland Garros (his best was a semifinal appearance in the clay Grand Slam), a fact that begs the question of whether he would have been as successful in this baseline-dominant era of tennis. 

My second personal, non-empirical, problem with Federer is his arrogance. I don’t mind arrogance in athletes when it comes from hard work. Kobe was arrogant, but he also worked harder than anyone else around him. And I don’t have a problem with arrogance in victory. There should be a level of arrogance in victory. 

But Federer has been arrogant in losses. It is easy to be a gracious winner. You won! It is not difficult to be magnanimous in success. But being gracious in losses is super tough. When frustrated, Federer’s true nature comes out, like this epic, purely passive-aggressive, bullshit comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Istcd6U_J9s 

First, he opens with “I should be doing the other press conference…” LOL. Mmmmkay. But you’re not because Djoker did this to you (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk7EQ2Uebag) (By the way, as an aside, that return is the most Serby thing that Djkovic has ever done… if he only stopped trying to be loved and played like a villain – channel your inner Milan Lucic man! – he would have the respect of crowds everywhere). Then, at the 2:25 minute mark comes this from Federer: 

“I mean, please. Some players grow up and play like that – being down 5-2 in the third, and they all just start slapping shots. I never played that way. I believe hard work's going to pay off, because early on maybe I didn't always work at my hardest. For me, this is very hard to understand. How can you play a shot like that on match point? Maybe he's been doing it for 20 years, so for him it was very normal. You've got to ask him.”

This Guardian article went on to expand on that amazing press conference. 

I lost a lot of respect for Federer after that loss. Sure, Djokovic took a gamble on that return and admitted later as much. But that is what sports is about!! It’s about playing with heart and going for gold (again, if Novak played like that in every match, he would already be the GOAT and would not be reviled!).

The entire match turned on that match point. “How can you play a shot like that on match point?” Are you seriously asking this question Rodger?! HOW CAN YOU NOT!!!!

Why didn’t Federer finish off Djokovic after that shot? He was still winning, had another match point, and had a 5-3 lead! Because, he was rattled. Because, deep down, he knows that he is too mechanical, too manicured, too clean to be the GOAT. He lost that title because he got scared. He saw the Serb rage across the net and wanted none of it. So, he packed it in and then, in the press conference, he lowered his Nike-Rolex PR, study-group, fabricated guard just enough for us to see his true self. Rodger was shook because he knew that the bulk of his dominance was garnered against players who could never dig that deep, into the recesses of their muse-cage, and whip back a return across the net to the gasps of both their opponent and the crowd. The stunned reaction from the crowd and Rodger was telling. In that one shot, they saw their bronze, Alpine, God crumble to the earth. 

Anyways, Federer is still a top-5 of all time and this post is not meant to argue that Djokovic is better. Maybe. Time will tell. I think that for Djokovic to be the best ever he has to A) beat Fed’s “weeks-at-number-1” record and B) win two more Grand Slams. He also, in my view, has to be relevant until 35. Not necessarily win as many GS as Fed – he already has a better head-to-head record against Federer and has more combined GS/Masters titles – but remain relevant as the young guns grow up. He needs to win an occasional Paris Masters against Thiem or Medvedev in 2022 and 2023. That kind of stuff. 

My point is that the cult-of-Federer is manufactured and packaged to casual tennis fans like any other product. The majority of his Grand Slam titles (60%) and weeks-at-number-1 (76%) came at a time when he faced no competition, when tennis was desperate for a star to ensure that the post-Pete era did not suffer from a lack of interest. But that same machine that polished his… uhm, bronze statue, also focused his career so exclusively on Grand Slams that his Masters record brings up a lot of questions. Grand Slams are not NBA Finals.

Bottom Line: Federer has shown his greatness by standing toe-to-toe with Nadal and Djokovic and by remaining in the top-5 of ATP well into his late-30s. However, both Nadal and Djokovic eclipsed Federer much sooner than they really should have were he an undisputed GOAT. Nadal in 2010 at 24 (when Roger was 29) and Djokovic in 2011 at 24 (when Roger was 30). It’s not like they were 10 years younger than him (as in, it is not like when a 24-year-old, flexing, Federer defeated a 35-year old Agassi in the 2005 US Open finals). As such, we should not be doing too much age-adjustment for either Nadal or Djokovic when measuring their head-to-head with Federer (Federer-Djokovic head-to-head was just 16-15 advantage at the end of 2013, when Fed was 32 and Djokovic was 25). 

Federer is not a fraud. He will forever be in the GOAT conversation and is the most consistent tennis player ever. He is the ATP’s Kareem Abdul Jabbar. However, his GOAT status is bloated by a 2004-2008 run of dominance against scrubs, the carefully orchestrated Nike-Rolex PR machine, and a cantankerous personality that comes through when he meets his match. 

¹ The phrase “Let’s also not forget Andy Murray” is here uttered with great risk of losing credibility for the entire analysis! 

² As an aside… my favorite tennis player during that stretch was not Sampras. Again, I don’t cheer for dominance. I was a Michael Chang zealot! 

³ Intriguingly, Federer does have the second most career wins in all tournaments, a t 103. But Jimmy Connors tops that list at 109, so I am a bit dubious to use it. Connors is a tennis great and a top-10 player for sure, but he is in nobody’s GOAT conversations. Why so many wins? Federer has a lot more wins in ATP 500 and 250 tournaments than both Djokovic and Nadal. But these tournaments have much weaker competition, with usually a steep drop after the top-10 seeds. 

Early Extension Updates

After some more discussion, tweaking the idea slightly...

• If teams signed players to the EE in the first 3 season for rookies (R1, R2, R3) or the first two seasons for any other player (Year 1, Year 2) - then the salary/keeper bump would only be $3 dollars (instead of $5)

Example: If the Wack signed Morant to his extension right now, he would be able to protect Morant for $15 (R2), $18 (R3), $21 (R4), $24 (R5) and $27 (R6).

Current rules, Morant would be $17 (R2), $22 (R3), $27 (R4), and $32 (R5)

• Still need to develop what the penalty would be if you had an EE player but no keeper spots (loss of rookie pick and/or loss of Auction dollars?)
• Also, realizing that a player could be signed to EE contract at any point in the season (standard keeper rules in place - if you want to protect a player for next season they must be on your roster by the end of NBA All-Star weekend). So, a team could sign a player, who met that condition, to the EE contract in March/April. I don't see why that couldn't happen. 

Based on feedback, we will float the idea to see if it's worthy of further rule development.

We would need 75% (or minimum 11 of 14 owners) to agree to the development of the Early Extension rules.

The Early Extension Idea...

With JBL XXX only 10 months away, I was thinking about any tweaks or things we could do to spark up the JBL. Plus, with Golden languishing in 9^th, I’ve got some time on my hands.

My idea stems from thinking about keepers and our protection rules. It also stems from looking at NBA contracts and some of the horrible ones out there (Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, etc). For those NBA contracts, GM’s took a chance and locked up guys for the long term, regardless of injury concerns or the likelihood that the player’s performance would regress as they got older. Some work out great and some work out horrible. Some players, like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are on super cheap deals while other players, Christiano Felicio and others have signed long term monstrosities. 

So is there anyway we could incorporate something like this into the JBL world?

Currently, at the end of each season, JBL teams are able to protect players. How many depends on where the JBL team finishes in the standings. I’m not looking or suggesting any modifications to the number of keepers per team. 

Currently, any player being protected gets a $5 dollar bump on his JBL salary. JBL teams decide on who they want to keep over the summer months. We watch what that the NBA teams are doing and whether that player is going to be a good value or not. As the JBL Auction approaches, a team can simply drop the player if they don’t want to protect him at that price or if the player suffers an injury. The risk is low for a JBL team in the current set-up.

But what if JBL teams could decide on a keeper right now? What would the benefit be to the team? What would the risks be? 

So here's my idea in a nutshell. I'll then walk you though some scenarios.

I call it...the Early Extension (EE).

• A JBL team can sign one player, per JBL season, to an Early Extension contract
• This essentially signs the player for the life of his JBL contract
• It also adds one year to the life of the contract (rookies can go to R6 and players drafted at Auction or signed as a Free Agent can go to Year 4)
• These players cannot be released (they can be traded) 
• The only way these players are not on a JBL roster for the following season is because the JBL team did not have a keeper spot available (then penalties would be applied)

Read on for some different scenarios...and some Q & A

Let’s use Idaho and DeAndre Ayton. Clearly, Idaho is going to keep Ayton for next season (assuming he doesn’t trade him). Currently, Ayton is $20 bucks so his salary for next season will be $25 and this will be his R3 season and then R4 for $30 and so on... 

So here’s me spit-balling on a way to spice things up and make things interesting.

What if Idaho had the ability right now to sign Ayton to his full rookie deal? Essentially, signing him for the life of his rookie contract. The player would still keep their current salary for this season (Ayton would still be $20 bucks). However, if Idaho traded Ayton, it would mean whoever is acquiring him HAS to keep Ayton as well (in this case, it’s a no-brainer for the club acquiring him because of Ayton’s current salary). It also would mean that if Ayton blows his knee tomorrow, Idaho still HAS to keep Ayton for next season and beyond. It would be the same for any other jBL team acquiring him.  Ayton essentially has to be protected by whatever club he ends up with. 

Q. What if the JBL team finished so low in the standings they had no keeper spots?

A. Let’s look at Bellingham’s current state. Last place gets you no keepers. Currently, he has John Wall for $4 bucks. So let's say the Ham N Eggers announce they are signing Wall to his extension right now. But at the end of the year, he’s still in last and gets 0 keepers. Then what? One option would be to say since you signed Wall to his extension and ended up in spot where you can’t protect anyone – you forfeit your rookie pick in the upcoming rookie draft.  Would Bellingham want to risk that? Last place gets you 14 lottery balls and the chance to get the #1 rookie pick at a $15 dollar salary – or the chance to keep John Wall for $9 and then $14 and then $19.. Would that make the risk worth it? Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on the crop of rookies and how strongly you felt about your chances to get out of last place.

So in that scenario, let’s say Bellingham signs Wall to his early extension and hopes he can move up from 14^th place. Let’s say they still finish last. Because he’s signed Wall to the early extension, he would forfeit his rookie draft pick. He doesn’t get to keep Wall (because last place gets 0 keepers). But is there an additional penalty required? Reduce his $260 budget for the next season’s Auction? Or is losing the rookie pick penalty enough? I discuss further penalty options below. 

So why would Bellingham or any team near the bottom of the standings take the risk to sign anyone to an early extension? The benefit/appeal would be the trade market appeal as it would significantly increase his keeper value if the Ham N Eggers were to trade him. What team wouldn’t want to take on Wall and get the extra year? This will of course be a major negative for some JBL owners that don’t want to see the injured players (Wall, Durant, Klay, Oladipo, Nurkic, etc) drafted at Auction at all due to their significantly reduced Auction price.

Q. Why just let JBL teams sign 1 player to this Early Extension?

A.  We want to try and keep a level playing field. Top teams get more keepers and allowing them to sign multiple players to an extra year gives them more chance of sustained success. That’s why I’m suggesting, for the initial role out of this idea, that each JBL team can only sign 1 player to the ‘early extension’ per JBL season starting in the 20/21 JBL season. If we like the idea and work out all the ‘what-if’ scenarios, then I would propose we expand the number of potential EE deals in future seasons. 

Q. My team finished 13th and I get 1 keeper. I have one player signed to an Early Extension deal and another, better, keeper option. Can I keep the other player? 

A. No, if you have a player signed to an Early Extension deal - you must keep that player for the next season.

This brings in some risk and excitement around signing guys to long term deals and having to work around contracts. Look at the Pistons and Blake Griffin or OKC with Chris Paul. It makes it interesting trying to build a roster where you have a player who is really tough to move. 

Q. Can teams make trades for other Early Extension players?

A. Yes. here's a scenario.

What if Idaho signed Ayton to his early extension and Maui has signed Isaac to his early extension. So, 1 early extension for each JBL team as per my suggested guideline. And then let’s say Idaho acquires Isaac from Maui. Now Idaho has 2 players on ‘early extension’ deals. Is that allowed? I would say yes because Maui was the team who signed Isaac to the extension. Now, I would also say that since Maui signed Isaac to the early extension that Maui cannot go and sign another one of his players to an ‘early extension’ deal. He used the option on Isaac for this season. Again, I’m suggesting each JBL team can only use 1 early extension offer per JBL season. 

This of course also means that Idaho must protect both Ayton and Isaac for the coming season. 

If the proposal is adopted, over years, teams would ultimately likely have more than 1 player signed to EE deals and would have to carefully navigate the world of long term deals, where their team is going to finish in the standings, etc. 

What about a player who is in the FINAL year of his JBL contract and is due to go back into the JBL Auction in October? I would propose that any player that is in the final year of his JBL contract, is ineligible to be signed to an ‘early extension’. 

The idea of the ‘early extension’ keeper has no other impact on the current keeper rules in place in terms of the number of keepers per team or salary bumps ($5). In order to be eligible for any type of protection, players must be on their JBL team by the February NBA All-Star weekend. I would suggest the same time period for the Early Extension deals to be signed and to be acquired. It would also mean that these EE players cannot be traded after the All-Star weekend (because they need to be protected and any player traded after the keeper deadline is ineligible for protection)

And of course, a JBL team does not have to sign any player to an Early Extension deal. It’s simply an option to lock up a player for an extra year if you wanted. 

Q. What are the penalties if I don't have enough keeper spots to keep a player signed on an Early Extension deal?

A. This is where I'm still in thinking mode. We could go with the idea that you forfeit your rookie draft pick. But, that could be such a low rookie pick that the owner does even care about losing it. So I was thinking it would be a double-edged penalty. Firstly, the JBL team loses their rookie pick and secondly, they lose the final year value of each Early Extension player from their $260 budget at the next Auction.

So, using the Ham N Eggers example above with John Wall. He is currently $4 bucks and let's say he's signed to his Early Extension. So that's $9 in the 2nd year, $14 in the 3rd year and now $19 in the 4th (extended year). And let's say Bellingham finishes last and gets zero keepers and can't keep Wall.  Ultimately, John Wall goes back into the Auction for the following draft.

Penalties that would apply:

1) Bellingham forfeits their rookie pick (which in this case would be 14 lottery balls and the chance at a really high pick)

2) They would also lose $19 bucks off the $260 limit for the next draft. The $19 bucks represents the 4th year salary of Wall. Essentially you can think of this as the buyout amount. 

OK, there are definitely more things to nail down, but that’s essentially my proposal/idea. Here’s the summary and highlights of the proposal (the finer details still to be detailed):

• Each JBL team can sign 1 ‘Early Extension’ deal with a player on their roster.
• The player is signed for the life of his JBL contract (regardless of what JBL team he plays for) and must be protected to the end of the JBL contract (unless the JBL team is unable to protect the player due to their finish in the JBL standings – penalties apply)
• Signing the ‘Early Extension’ adds one year to the player’s JBL contract. For rookies, it means they can go to R6 and for players drafted at auction or signed as Free Agents – they can go to Year 4.
• The player cannot be released from a JBL roster (even if he suffers injury)
• Each JBL team can only sign 1 player to an Early Extension deal per season
• Currently, if you want to protect a player for next season, the player must be on your roster before the NBA All-Star game. I would propose the same rules to apply for Early Extension players.
• The Early Extension deals must be confirmed before the end of NBA All-Star weekend (Sunday, midnight) 
• Also, this would mean that any player signed to an EE contract cannot be traded after the keeper deadline (to keep in line with current keeper rules).
• Any player in the FINAL (rookie or regular) year of his JBL contract is not eligible to be signed to an Early Extension deal
• A JBL team can trade for players on other teams signed to an early extension deal and have multiple players under this designation on their roster. However, they must protect these players and if they do not end up with enough keeper spots they will forfeit their rookie draft pick and potentially suffer other penalties (TBD). This would be the only scenario where a player signed to an Early Extension goes back into the Auction.

What else? Worthy of a discussion gents?