Free Agent Idea??

A few weeks ago, one of the other JBL owners (Brussels) suggested an idea for a rule change to Free Agents. The suggestion was simply that whatever the winning Free Agent bid was - that was the players FA salary for the season.

Now, firstly, I don't like this idea - in it's entirety - but I do like part of it. I'll explain.

The flaw in this idea is that FA players like Kurt Thomas, Zaza Pachulia, and others should never be able to have a $60 salary. It makes no sense. Chris Paul gets drafted on Auction night for $60 and I could sign Kurt Thomas for the same price??? That doesn't make sense. Also, if this system was in place, some very strange trades could occur. Years ago, we implemented the salary cap system ($200 minimum and $300 maximum) to prevent wacky trades when owners had given up. Adding a FA system like this would only make lopsided deals even easier.

Let's say I am out of it (hard to imagine I know) and my team is struggling around 10th place. My team salary is at $230 and I have Chris Paul for $60 bucks. And let's say those Chilliwack Offs managed to secure a hot shot rookie for $1 dollar and I want him - for simplicity sake - let's make him Greg Monroe. In our current system, I can't trade CP3 for Monroe straight up because I would be waaaay below the minimum salary cap. But, if I could sign any Free Agent (say Kurt Thomas) for $30+ dollars I could make this trade. What's the point of that?? I don't think that's what we're trying to accomplish in the JBL...

So...we (or me) are not even entertaining the idea of having a Free Agent system where whatever the winning bid is equates to his JBL salary.

Currently, if the winning FA bid is $1 buck - the JBL salary is $5. Any other winning FA bid equates to a $10 dollar JBL salary. And any player drafted on JBL Draft night maintains that salary all year.

Here is my proposal...

Any winning Free Agent bid less $10 or less - that is the player's JBL salary for the rest of the season (unless he was originally drafted on Draft Night). So, a winning FA bid of $4 dollars - equals a $4 JBL salary. Any winning FA bid of $11 dollars or more - equates to a $10 dollar FA salary (same as the current system in place).

Why do this??
Well, for one, think of the times your team is at a salary of $297. In the current model, where FA's are either $5 or $10, you can't sign any players without going over the cap. In the new system, you could sign a player for $1, $2, or $3 bucks and fit him on your roster (provided you have bench space of course).

I think this option would also increase the FA bidding strategy. In the current model, you quite often want to win a player with a $1 dollar bid so you can have him at that $5 salary in case you want to protect him down the road. Bidding $2 dollars and getting a $10 dollar JBL salary isn't as attractive because his keeper price becomes $15 dollars. So, with the new system, now you could pick up a player for $2 bucks and protect him for $7 bucks. Still a good bargain (depending the player).

So, what do you think?? Should we vote on it? I think it's pretty straight forward to understand in 2 sentences...

1) Any winning Free Agent bid of $1o dollars or less, the player's JBL salary will equal the winning FA bid. (Example - winning FA bid is $4 dollars - players JBL salary is $4 dollars)

2) Any winning Free Agent bid of $11 dollars or more - the player's JBL salary will be $10 dollars. (Example - winning A bid is $18 dollars - players JBL salary is $10 dollars)

I am not suggesting that the current model of $130 FA dollars to spend for the season is changed at all. I think it works just fine like it is.

So, there it is...I will post it to the website and see what happens. We require a majority of JBL owners to agree in order to implement this new FA system. (7 YES votes). A BIG thanks to Timbo for thinking outside the box and bringing the idea forward. I think this would be a good change for the JBL's 20th season. Good job Timmy!! Doube Rainbows to you!

The 13th Team...

Well, it's official. Bob Hucul has joined the JBL. Bob is well known to Philly Woo, Pat, Rick, and Ben so he'll fit right in with the "older" JBL members (yes, I count myself in this group as well). While Bob decides on his team name and develops a JBL strategy I wanted to mention the problem that Bob has caused to other owners. Now, don't get me wrong - it's a good problem.

You see, adding a 13th team to the JBL changes everything about how we should value these NBA players in terms of Fantasy. We haven't had 13 teams in the JBL (except for the year we had the 'ghost' team) before....
So, with 13 teams and 15 players per team - we are drafting 195 NBA players. That's a lot of guys!! So, we are going deeper and deeper into the NBA rosters, which means that the prime time players become more and more valuable. Teams like Brussels, Bangkok, and Chilliwack must love the expansion as they have top keepers already.
Brussels has the #1 Fantasy player in Durant.
Bangkok has Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook.
And Chilliwack has all the shot-blockers galore in corn country.

My Golden squad has virtually 3 locks for protection - Josh Smith, Derrick Rose, and Darren Collison. So, will the 4th spot go to Luol Deng or Aaron Brooks?? Let's have a look...

Keeper price - Brooks is $16 and Deng is $17 - so no big difference here...

The case for Aaron Brooks...

• keeping Brooks would give my squad 3 of the 30 NBA starting PG's. With 13 JBL teams and 30 NBA teams - most JBL teams would be lucky to get 2 starting PG's. Again, keeping Brooks would give me 3 solid starters.
• Brooks is one of the leading 3-point shooters in the NBA
• Brooks is coming off a magical Most Improved Player season where he averaged close to 20ppg and now he gets to lob passes to Yao (Brooks' assists should improve).

The case against Brooks...

• With Yao returning, Brooks is unlikely to score 19.6 PPG again
• Because Brooks shoots so many 3's he could go through many 0/8 from downtown nights
• Brooks really only excels in scoring and 3PT% and does not have the best FG%, ATO, or steals

The case for Luol Deng...

• Deng is a multiple category stat stuffer
• Chicago is an improving Eastern power and Deng could be open a lot more with the addition of Boozer to the team
• Deng could get 80 steals and 80 blocks in Tom Thibodeau's new defensive system (blocks are at a premium with the addition of another JBL team)
• Based on tendex rankings, Deng is a top 25 forward

The case against Luol Deng...

• Deng is injury prone
• Deng goes from being 2nd fiddle to 3rd fiddle with the addition of Carlos Boozer

So...who should it be?? Brooks or Deng? I will break it down over the coming weeks....

A Great Dilemna

Well, it didn't work out exactly like I had thought - but it worked out nonetheless....

With all of the summer rumors flying around about Chris Paul's unhappiness, I thought the Hornets would cave and trade him away...leaving a young Darren Collison to run the show. Instead, it's Collison who is on the move. And really, I should have seen it coming. The Indiana Pacers have been desperate for a PG all summer. Why didn't I clue in that they would be in the running for Collison?

Anyways, with this move, I now have 5 realistic keepers. And quite frankly, only two of them are absolute locks to be protected - Derrick Rose and Darren Collison.

Why Collison? Check out his 2nd half numbers from last season (where he started 37 games for the injured Chris Paul....

41 games
50.3% FG%
45.3# 3PT%
2.193 ATO
57 steals
17.5 PPG

Those are spectacular numbers. And now, Collison will surely be the starter in Indiana where he can run and gun and dish to Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert. But Johnny - Collison's great 2nd half numbers last season came in New Orleans. Ahhh, yes, the potent Hornets that had David West and Emeka Okafor. Ya, not much more talent (if any) than what he'll have in Indy.

I fully expect Collison to put up some very decent numbers in Indiana next year and I think he'll be a good value at $15 bucks.

So, what happens with the remaining 2 spots and 3 players...how do I fit Josh, Deng, and Brooks??? Well, my Tuna Grills math tells me that it won't work and that I'll have to either drop one of them or make a 2 for 1 deal....

I could drop Josh and save some $$ but then have to find a player just like Josh in the JBL draft.
I could drop Deng because he's the 3rd wheel in Chi-town (a 17 and 7 third wheel).
Or I could drop Aaron Brooks, the Most Improved Player in the NBA last season that led the NBA in 3-pointers made.
Tough decision...

My first order of business will be to attempt a 2 for 1 deal...
Without naming players, I will mention some teams that have assets I may want to swing a 2 for 1 deal with....
Seoul, Bangkok, Yuma, Arctic and Chilliwack all have nice options where I could see myself swinging something...
Can I get something done?? Unknown...

If the 2 for 1 trade doesn't pan out - the only option left is to wait and hope for no injuries and then make a decision on who gets cut...

So, I thought Darren Collison was going to be the starter in New Orleans when CP3 got traded. Then, I thought Collison would be useless as the backup to CP3. Now, he's a potential fantasy stud again and I am happy. So there.

Also, the JBL Summer Podcast came out today....party time!!! Listening to it, reminded me again of Timmy's stanky ass. Good times. Good times.

The Summer Doldrums...

Well, the JBL off season trading has been anything but interesting. Not a single trade. Plenty of offers, but nothing that was seemingly close to being a deal. Again, I have made offers and I have received plenty of offers - but nothing is happening (for now).

I approached Yuma. Let's just say he's not moving David Lee for anything I have.
I approached Seoul. Bogut and Nene aren't moving apparently.
Bangkok and I have gone back and forth - but neither of us want to part with certain pieces.
Chilliwack and I discussed a few options early on but it never materialized.
Arctic and I discussed Kevin Love - but nothing materialized.

So, where does that leave the Golden Showers?? Well, I will have likely the maximum 4 keepers (barring summer injuries). Darren Collison appears to be the odd man out as long as Chris Paul remains in New Orleans. I don't think $15 bucks is a good price for Chris Paul's backup. Sure, Collison will likely get 20-25 minutes per game easy - but I know he can be had for less.

So...let's discuss my 4 keepers...

Derrick Rose $29 (year 3) - Rose is the leader of the new look Chicago Bulls. Rose, in his 2nd NBA season, averaged 20ppg and 6ast per game last season. Not too shabby at all. What would he be worth if he was in the auction?? I'm guessing in the $35-$40 dollar range based on where he fits in with the other top flight PG's. You look at guys like Billups and Nash who both went in the $30's last season and Rose would probably fit in right around there. He does have a couple of things to work on this summer - one of them is improving his 3PT shot. Rose made only 16 3-pointers all last season. However, apparently the Bulls wanted him to work on his range this summer. Based on this video, he appears he has followed their direction.

http://www.docksquadsports.com/2010/08/derrick-roses-new-jump-shot.html

The other thing that he could do better is get some steals. He only had 57 in 78 games last year. Well, with new defensive minded coach Tom Thibodeau on board - I'm betting he improves on this number. And finally, with secondary weapons like Boozer, Deng, and Korver hopefully knocking down open shots, Rose's assists could see a bump into the 8/game range.

Josh Smith $48 (year 2) - Josh is one of those players who is almost at his peak value. I would bet that in the auction this year he would go in the $55 dollar range. So keeping him at this price is still a slight bargain. Besides, what Josh brings to the table (especially since he stopped shooting 3's) is a true 6 category player. Yes, there are better Fantasy Stars out there but Josh is one of the best as well. For argument's sake, let's compare Josh Smith and Kevin Durant. Now, Timmy, before you go shaking your head thinking of how I am going to compare these 2 guys...here me out...I am in no way suggesting that Josh is more valuable than KD. Durant is the new king of Fantasy. Now, that being said, Josh has some positives as well...let's compare numbers.

POINTS - OK, no comparison here. KD averaged over 30PPG last year. No one is in his league here. Now, that being said, Josh averaged 15.7 PPG last year and if every player on your JBL team averaged that number - you'd have one of the best scoring teams in the league. Josh certainly doesn't hurt your Fantasy team in scoring.

REBOUNDS - Durant had 7.6 and Josh had 8.7 rebounds per game last year. Both help your team with those numbers. Josh just had a few more boards.

FG% - Durant was 47.6% and Josh was 50.5%. Yes, KD took almost 700 more shots than Josh - but bottom line is that both guys help your team in this category.

3PT% - Josh doesn't shoot the 3's anymore (thank God). A year ago, this was Josh's biggest drawback because he took way too many 3's. Hopefully, new coach Larry Drew will remind Josh to not attempt any more. Durant shot 36.5% from downtown. Again, a solid number from the #1 Fantasy player.

ATO - This is one area where KD needs to improve. He had 231 assists and 271 turnovers. He's a negative player in this category. I guess when you average 30PPG and 7REB we won't hold this against him. This category has actually become a strength for Josh over the last couple of years. He had 343 assists and 198 TO's last season. That equates to 1.732 ATO. Pretty damn good for a power forward.

STLS - Durant had 112 and Josh had 130. Both exceptional numbers from these players. Again, slight edge to Josh.

BLKS - Durant had 84 and Josh had 173 blocks last season. Just like KD doubled Josh in scoring - Josh doubles KD in blocks. That being said, KD's total is very, very good. And, like KD is one of the premier scorers in the league - Josh is a premier shot blocker!

Again, I'm not arguing that Smith is a better Fantasy player than Kevin Durant. He's not. (Even though he trumps KD in 5 categories straight up). I'm arguing that Josh Smith is worth every bit of his $48 dollar salary. Would I rather have KD for $43 bucks - absolutely. Am I happy for have Josh Smith for $48 bucks - absolutely.

Luol Deng $17 (year 2) - I am big Luol Deng fan. Maybe it's because he's one of the blackest men in the league (maybe the blackest man since Manute Bol?). There is just something about the way he plays - I love it. He's a typical Golden player that does it all and is a stat stuffer. He was almost a 7 category player last season.

Check out the numbers...

PPG - 17.6 (solid)
REB - 7.6 (good)
ATO - 1.067 (could be better)
FG% - 46.6% (could be a bit better)
3PT% - 38.6% (nice)
STL - 66 steals in 70 games (just below the required 1 per game)
BLK - 62 blocks in 70 games (so close again)

Check out the action up close of Deng taking it to the hoop....

Deng isn't a star (although he gets paid like one)...but he's a nice guy to have on your Fantasy team. I don't think I'm saving a huge amount of money by keeping him at $17 bucks. I think he would likely top out around $20 bucks (depending on when he came up in the auction). But, something can be said for keeping players that you like watching - which is another reason why I am keeping Luol.

Aaron Brooks $16 (year 2) - Brooks is coming off of a MIP season where he averaged almost 20ppg and 5ast per game. Yes, he put up these numbers with Yao Ming out of commission. Yao is scheduled to be back this season and I can argue both ways as to how his presence will affect Brooks' numbers. I think his scoring will likely drop a bit this season...but his assists should rise as he lobs into the big man. Brooks made the most 3-pointers in the Association last season and made them at almost a 40% clip. With Yao back, could Brooks actually be open for more 3's?? Sure, Brooks could improve his FG% (43%) and his steals (69 in 82 games) but he's only $16 bucks.

So, with those 4 players on the Golden roster there will only be $15o bucks left for 11 players. Safe to say its unlikely that Golden will be going after a D-Wade or Lebron type player. Instead, I would think it will be another typical Golden draft - where balance and depth are the key issues addressed. But the best part - we'll be in Vegas!!

Ranking the Keepers

At the moment, all JBL teams have up to 5 players on their roster. And we are still awaiting the first off season JBL trade in 2010. Are there any discussions ongoing? My sense is that things are pretty quiet.

So, if all things stay like this - who has the best roster heading into the 2010 Draft?? Tough call because some teams will have 4 players and some will have a big fat zero (Idaho). So, I will base it on the talent level and the salaries of the keepers on each team. OK, here we go...

12) Idaho - no players so last place ranking

11) Belgrade - will only be able to keep one player. My bet would be that it's Carmelo for $45 bucks. This is probably a bit of a bargain for someone like Carmelo, but it still doesn't rank as a super keeper.

10) French Lick - Hildy will be able to bring back 3 players. I'm guessing it will be Dalembert, Millsap and Pierce. All good players but they don't represent the greatest value. Both Millsap and Dalembert will fight for playing time on their NBA teams while Pierce will be another year older and will have to be rested to gear up for the playoff match up with the Miami Heat.

9) Arctic - another 3 keepers available. Kevin Love is the stud of the bunch. Big Al Jefferson has been moved and Love's big man competition is Darko Milicic?? Come on, Love is destined for a BIG year. Beasley will also be in Minny and hopes to prove Miami wrong for letting him go. He could be a good value for Arctic. The 3rd keeper will either be Crawford, Harrington, or Horford. All good players but their keeper price is probably what they would go for on draft night.

8) Juan de Fuca - 3 keepers available and I would bet that Gallinari, Wallace, and Randolph will make the cut. All very good talents but not the cheapest keepers out there. Still, nevertheless, they are good bargains and Wallace & Randolph are proven fantasy commodities.

7) Golden - 4 keepers available. Golden will look for Josh Smith and Derrick Rose to lead the way in 10/11. Josh will be the highest paid keeper going into the season and still represents a slight value over his auction price. Rose could blossom on a very dangerous Bulls team. The other 2 spots come down to Deng/Brooks/Collison. Golden is very hopeful of making a deal and has had (or will have) discussions with Seoul, Chilliwack, Yuma, and Maui.

6) Maui - 2 spots available. The best bargains are likely Frye, Prince and Varejao. The Cavs will finally give Varejao a chance to start now that Ilgauskas and Shaq have left town. We know Byron Scott loves defense and Varejao should play loads of minutes and fill up the box scores on a regular basis. Frye is now part of a very deep Suns team. Will he get enough time?? If he can duplicate his season from last year then he's certainly worth the money ($6 bucks). Now that Amare is gone, Frye could shine. Prince is another player who could be in for a big year. He could be worth the risk.

5) Seoul - 4 spots available for the defending champ and he's already down to 3 players. I'm betting that Nene and Bogut are really the only 2 options as Marcus Thornton doesn't appear to be much of a bargain at $15 bucks. Nene and Bogut are good options for sure. There are rumors that Bogut could be involved in an off season deal....

4) Yuma - the 3 spots in Pat-land likely go to David Lee, Corey Maggette, and Brendan Haywood. Lee should have a monstrous year in Golden State. He excelled in NY's fast paced system and nothing should change in Golden State. Haywood has been promised the starting gig in Dallas and should average close to a double-double with a couple of blocks. Not bad for $6 bucks. Maggette will take his scoring to Milwaukee and be part of a very under-rated Bucks team in 10/11. Maggette can score and will be a cheap source of points in Yuma next season. I would be shocked to see Jackson or Hill make the cut (unless Tony Parker is traded out of San Antonio - then Hill could be a great bargain).

3) Chilliwack - 4 spots in the Valley for Conley, Bargnani , Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, and Andrei Kirilenko. Marc Gasol is a huge bargain at his current salary. And now that Bosh has left TO it's Bargnani's chance to shine. Conley is still the only viable PG in Memphis and put up surprisingly good numbers last year. The 4th spots is up for grabs in my opinion. How much impact will Boozer's arrival have on Noah? Can AK47 stay healthy?? Kirilenko should be motivated to have a great year as it is a contract year for him so he needs to perform well before he goes to play in New Jersey with the billionaire Russian owner (just a hunch).

2) Brussels - Tyreke and Kevin Durant. Both are extremely undervalued at their current prices. In fact, KD is now the #1 Fantasy player since Lebron/Wade/Bosh joined forces in South Beach. OKC is a rising team in the Western Conference and Durant should be a monster again! Tyreke is part of the young and exciting Kings team that should be a bit better this year. Tim has 2 very big pieces of what he hopes to be a championship contending JBL team.

1) Bangkok - 4 keepers and 3 of them are HUGE bargains. Kaman, Westbrook, and Stephen Curry are all way undervalued. Curry and Westbrook are rising All-Stars and provide great Fantasy stats. Kaman is one of the top Fantasy Centers and is just $14 bucks! Rudy Gay is an all around talent would be worth way more money if he played anywhere but Memphis. Rick has 4 great keepers and is poised for a big year in 2010/11.


Will any of these teams change during the summer?
Will anyone make a trade?
I can't wait for the JBL draft!!

Oh Lebron!!

OK, thought I would weigh in on this whole thing...
Lebron had every right to sign in Miami.
Lebron had every right to hold a press conference to announce where he's playing.
But the bottom line, in my opinion, is that he shouldn't have held the press conference unless he was announcing he was staying in Cleveland.
Why do that to those fans?
Did Amare hold a press conference to announce his move to the Knicks? No.
Did Boozer hold one when he moved to the Bulls? No.
Is Lebron bigger than life and those guys? Yes, but he still didn't need to do that to Cleveland fans.
Make your announcement like everyone else and move on.

Lebron's legend/reputation or whatever you want to call it will forever be tarnished now.
He was the man who destroyed Cleveland basketball.
Even if he wins NBA titles in Miami - his critics will always respond with "Well, of course you won, you had a frickin' All-Star team".
Lebron is taking the easy way out in his attempt to build his legend.
Jordan built one in Chicago on his own...
Magic built the Lakers...
Bird built the Celtics...
Duncan/Robinson built the Spurs...
Olajuwon had his Rockets.
Sure, these teams all had luck, good signings, good Management, and good supporting casts - but they never all made a pact to join a team together in attempt to win a title. They made their own legend with the team that they started with.
Also, let's say Lebron and his crew win the next 3 NBA titles...the problem for Lebron is that Wade will have 4 titles to his 3 and Lebron will be still be 2nd fiddle.

I am looking forward to seeing what kind of team Miami is able to build for next season. It looks like there are loads of players willing to come and play in South Beach. Every team in the NBA will be gunning for them next year. Lebron will be booed in Cleveland. Bosh will be booed in TO. And Dwyane Wade will be cheered for bringing both of them to HIS town. Wade is the hero. Wade is the alpha male. Wade is the big dog. Lebron and Bosh can't overcome that because Miami was already Wade's town. If they all went to New York - an argument could be made that Lebron is the alpha male - but since they joined Wade in Miami - he's the king.

I really think that a team in the JBL should draft all 3 studs from Miami. Wouldn't that be something? How much will they all go for?? They have all lost some value since they joined forces -but they are still going to go for big bucks in the draft? Can someone pull it off? It would be very cool!

Deals That Make Sense....

I love this time of year. All these NBA free agents just waiting to sign...and loads of trade rumours throughout the league. Most of the trade rumours never happen -but there are a few that seem to make sense and should happen...

There are rumblings of a 3 way trade involving the Knicks, T-Wolves, and Warriors.
David Lee goes to Minnesota.
Al Jefferson goes to the Warriors.
Monta Ellis goes to the Knicks.
This makes complete sense doesn't it.

David Lee and Kevin Love would be the twin white towers in Minny. They could add in Ricky Rubio next season and try to field an all white guy line-up.
Al Jefferson, despite his slow return from knee injuries, is exactly the type of big man the height challenged Warriors could use.
And Moped Ellis would love the up tempo, shoot when you want Knicks style. The Knicks could pair Ellis with Amare.

Latest rumblings are that the Warriors are not interested in Big Al. I'm not sold that Al is done. You would think there would be some interest in his services.

Anyways, I still think this 3-way should happen.

And what about all the rumours of a sign and trade deal involving Chris Bosh. If you were running the Raptors, don't you have to get some assets back for him. You can't just let him walk for nothing. So, what would be the best deal???

The Knicks and Raptors apparently have discussed Bosh to NY for David Lee. At least you get a guy back who can be 20 and 10. Maybe you could get NY to throw in Wilson Chandler or Gallinari to sweeten the pot.

What about the Rockets?? Maybe you could get Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola, and some draft picks?

If Bosh wanted to go to Miami - would Beasley and Chalmers and a #1 pick be enough?? Not in my mind.

Bosh to Chicago? I'm sure you could get Luol Deng and Taj Gibson. Deng and Turkoglu play the same position so maybe you could move Deng somewhere.

There are some options here...and the Raptors have to get something in return.

So where will the big boys sign??
Amare looks like he's headed for NYC.
Where will Lebron, Wade, Bosh, and Boozer go???
My new guesses...
- Lebron stays in Cleveland
- Wade lands in Miami or Chicago
- Bosh joins Wade wherever he lands
- Boozer goes to New Jersey to tutor Derrick Favors

Of course, I can change my mind again in an hour.