The 20% Check-in

Well, here we are. Almost 20% of the way into the 20/21 NBA season. How’s it going so far? Well, I think we all had hopes of an amazing JBL XXX with gummy bears and whisky at endless supply. Instead, every week has been a battle. A struggle to find 12 healthy guys to get into your active roster. A challenge to find that perfect Free Agent who is ready to breakout. And a frustration to hear about another player going down to ‘health and safety protocols’.

 

So, there are a couple of things that these factors all add up to:

1) These challenges make the weekly grind of the JBL very difficult and enjoyable.

2) These challenges mean that the JBL is far from over

 

Some of us have been JBL’ing for a couple of decades now and we can see the trends and how things are shaking out. I use the term ‘shaking’ as a reminder to the Wack, Bangkok and French that they owe some shotguns on the feed. In a normal year, this is a two team race, Brussels is 300 points clear of 3^rd and almost 400 points clear of 4^th and the rest of the pack. Normally, even at this stage of the season, this is a sign of the end. That everyone else would be fighting for the top 4. But not 20/21…

 

This season, from week to week, we have no idea when covid will strike. It’s ruthless and shows no bias or preference. Anyone, anywhere, anytime. And because of that, it continues to change the playing field. Look at how many man-games have been lost already. Look at how many make-up games will be happening at the back end of the NBA schedule. So, this year is like no other. It’s not over. Not yet.

 

Now, all that said, make no bones about it…Brussels is the favourite to win it all as it currently stands. His top 6 are playing fabulous and his depth guys are performing very well. So far, for the most part, this team has been quite healthy. Let’s see if they can keep it up.

 

OK, so, like I said, we’re about 1/5^th of the way through the JBL 30 season so let’s have a glance at how all the JBL teams are doing with some quick thoughts on everyone. And I will point out, that at the time of this posting, 5^th to 13^th in the JBL standings is separated by just 112 points.

 **** STANDINGS BASED ON MONDAY, JANUARY 18TH ****

1^st place – Brussels – 1175 points

·   Keepers Doncic and Wood have been nothing short of spectacular

·   Big dollar auction guys (Kawhi, PG13, Sabonis, VanVleet) have been playing extremely well

·   Mikal Bridges having a breakout season at an undervalued price

·   Garland was trending up before his injury

·   A strong team across all categories. 7^th in steals is the low point so yes, Brussels is having a dream season so far

·   I am a huge fan of the guys that Brussels is taking chances on – Giles, Claxton, and Vanderbilt (aka The Vandalorian – check out his stats today). Risk v reward and if one of them pans out – that’s always fun!

·   Not much to say about this team other than it’s really, really good. A good top 6 and some strong role players getting stats across all 7 categories.

 

2^nd place – French Lick – 1080 points

·   CJ McCollum was the highest priced guy at auction and he’s performing at an all-NBA level so far. The recent foot injury could be cause for concern. Check out CJ’s ATO so far this season.

·   The 2 big Celtic keepers have been amazing – with Jaylen Brown being almost as good (and maybe better) than Tatum so far this season. Having them at bargain prices always helps. As I’ve said many times, the key to success in the JBL is having great keepers.

·   Can we say Simmons has been a bit disappointing so far? This is Simmons final year as a keeper and I’m interested to see what he goes for at auction next year.

·   I think CP3, Jordan, and Draymond are likely disappointments so far for French

·   The TJ Warren injury is challenging this team’s depth

·   Will Porzingis be able to stay healthy and provide big numbers?

·   This team is still strong across all categories with his weakest being a 7^th place effort in rebounds. A return to form for the Unicorn and Draymond would certainly help out here.

 

3^rd place – Seoul – 889 points

·   The top of the 2^nd tier of teams – or maybe Woo has his own tier at this stage? I think, as it currently stands, Seoul is well positioned to be the 3^rd best team this season. Everyone else now appears to be fighting for 4th. The question is can Seoul still challenge French and Brussels?

·   Tobias has been as boring as usual but he always plays well under Doc Rivers. He’s a 6-cat guy

·   Zion is averaging 22 and 8 quite easily and his only drawbacks are lack of blocks and ATO

·   Scary Terry, a late night $1 dollar auction pickup, has been stellar. 20ppg and fantastic %’s

·   Collins has been a major disappointment for ATL and Seoul

·   Seoul’s ATO continues to be an issue (14^th) but at this point he might as well punt it and see if he can improve in other areas.

·   Mitchell scores. That’s it. Is he really a 1 category guy already?

·   Patty Mills was a great FA signing and I do like the long term potential of Saddiq Bey

·   Will Seoul be able to save Lord Covington? What happened to this guy?

 

4^th place – Bellingham – 787 points

·   Definitely the most surprising team of the season so far

·   Breakout seasons from Chris Boucher and Jerami Grant are the major reasons behind it

·   Beal, Curry, Hayward have all been very good as expected. I didn’t expect to see Beal averaging 35ppg.

·   What will Jarrett Allen do in Cleveland? How long will they timeshare with Drummond? If this kid could get 30+ minutes I think he’ll be a monster.

·   The Ham N Eggers have started to struggle a bit in steals and rebounds. Getting Kevin Love back might help with the boards but is he another one of these aging veterans who is just “done”?

·   I like some of the young guys potential here – Avdija, Roby, and Horton-Tucker – all have potential if they can find the minutes.

·   Dillon Brooks has cooled (no iced) off since his hot start. His %’s are killer and as a fan of the Grizzlies I really wish they would find someone better.

·   Happy to see this team performing well above early projections

 

5^th place – Juan de Fuca – 730 points

·   A strong performance so far considering all the man games missed.

·   Michael Porter Jr, Sexton, Westy, Hachimura, and now LeVert all missing time for one reason or another

·   Loving Sexton’s game as a scorer so far

·   The biggest surprise for me on this team (and maybe in the NBA) has been the play of Julius Randle. 23-11 and shooting over 50%. Let’s hope Thibs doesn’t burn out his starters

·   Juan’s had great success on the FA wire with the signings of Jackson, Maxey, and Dort. Will Okoro be the next big find?

·   DeVonte Graham and Lou Williams have to be the biggest disappointments for me – with Devonte shooting 31/32 and Lou down to just 9.3ppg

·   It will be interesting to see what this team can do if they ever get 12 healthy guys playing in a week

 

6^th place – Norfolk – 720 points

·   A couple of the big boys (Drummond and Lillard) are doing just as expected. Good things.

·   A few more of the big boys (Booker, Young, Oubre) would have to be considered disappointments

·   That whole ATL situation is killing Trae’s numbers. According to some JBL experts – he was going to average 34 PPG EASY. He’s at 23ppg.

·   The %’s and ATO are not good right now in Norfolk but he certainly can’t blame his FG% on the strong performances of Kanter, Portis and Harrell

·   I think the biggest concern would be the play of Kelly Oubre. Maybe his focus is on this lawsuit/extortion claim - https://www.tmz.com/2021/01/15/kelly-oubre-claims-lawsuit-ex-girlfriend-attempted-extortion-3-million-dollars/

·   Cole Anthony shoots like his dad. Poorly.

 

7^th place – Idaho – 720 points

·   Idaho quickly righted the ship, in my opinion, by trading Westy away for Myles and Fultz. That went to shit when Fultz tore his ACL – which is too bad because that kid had gone through a lot.

·   Turner’s 4.1 blocks per game is an insane number so far. To put this in perspective, the Jizzlies have 57 blocks TOTAL – while Myles has 49 by himself!

·   I think the majority of this team would be considered underachievers in Idaho’s eyes. Ayton, Markkanen, Gallinari, and Richardson – I think we all expected more.

·   Not having Jaren Jackson Jr yet definitely hurts.

·   Idaho’s taking a major flier on Whiteside – might pan out if Walton gets fired; Bagley gets moved; or Whiteside gets traded. So, we’ll see how this one plays out. I think we know the kind of dude Whiteside is though as he put up monster numbers last season – yet when it came time to play bubble-ball – the Blazers started Nurkic even though he hadn’t played a game in 9 months.

·   I think Ingram and Conley have been very good and we know this roster will continue to evolve over the coming months

·   The %’s continue to be an issue but let’s see if those can be turned around

 

8^th place – Bangkok – 697 points

·   Giannis is going Giannis things. Being really good

·   Jrue is actually a better fantasy player in Milwaukee even though he is scoring less and taking fewer shots

·   The young wings for the Kok have be nice surprises. Keldon Johnson, DeAndre Hunter and Lonnie Walker have all provided valuable contributions so far

·   The Headmaster Jamal Murray has been OK. He certainly hasn’t carried over his bubble level of play though

·   Siakam can be good one night and disappear the next. But we all know the Kok loves him.

·   Getting Shake and Biyombo improves the depth of this team and makes sense to make that move now

·   The Anthony Edwards trade has been ___________. You guys can fill in the blank here.

·   Wiseman looks like he could be really good. He’s already at 11-6 while shooting 49% and getting 1.6 blocks. And this is all in JUST 20 minutes a game. The kid needs to learn how to stay out of foul trouble though

 

9^th place – Golden – 685 points

·   Where to begin? How about the poor play of LaMarcus Aldridge. At some point, all these ‘old’ guys have that season. The one where they just can’t play anymore. This is it for LA12. Sad. He looks fat and out of shape – just like his JBL owner.

·   Evan Fournier has had back spasms for 3 weeks? Come on dude! WTH? I’m not buying it. Something else is going on.

·   Nurkic breaks his wrist – out 8 weeks? The poor guy is cursed. He certainly did not have the bubble magic back either though.

·   Derrick White, recovering from fractured toe surgery, returns to the lineup only to find out he fractured another toe!!! You can’t make this stuff up.

·   I’ve been happy with DeRozan and SGA – despite them missing some games.

·   My keeper Brandon Clarke has been disappointing. In hindsight, I clearly should have protected VanVleet. I had a man-crush on Brandon because he’s a Canadian and on the Grizz – but I was hoping for more.

·   My rookie pick Haliburton has done very well so far. He reminds me a lot of SGA in how he appears to be playing in slow motion. I like him a lot.

·   Bam has been good but again missed time due to covid protocols. I know he’s taking some flack as his numbers don’t pop off the page. I think his value in real life might be higher than it is in fantasy. How many teams wouldn’t trade their center to get their hands on Bam? He’s just 23.

·   Seth Curry was playing amazing until he got covid. Stay home Seth and wear a mask!

·   Darius Bazley was hyped up for a breakout season and he’s been a MAJOR disappointment.

·   A pre-season title contender, I will now have to downgrade that based on the injuries and disappointing seasons some of these guys are having

 

10^th place – Cali – 659 points

·   Cali is 1^st in both FG% and 3PT% but 13^th in points and 14^th in steals

·   Durant for $52 seems like a bargain now. He’s averaging 31ppg, 7reb, and shooting 55% and 48%. Wow. Can he keep those numbers up now that the Beard is in town?

·   While Anthony Davis’s numbers aren’t eye-popping (22 and 8) the most impressive thing, to me, is that he’s playing games and not resting every other night.

·   Clint Capela got off to a slow start but is rounding into shape nicely (12ppg, 13reb, 58%)

·   It will be interesting to see what Oladipo does in Houston? More shots? Less shots? He’s been pretty good statistically so far this season.

·   Cali has some very good young talent ready to breakout. The TimeLord Robert Williams is screaming to be a stocks monster and I think everyone knows the man-crush I have on rookie Patrick Williams.

·   Cali has become a very happy place for NBA role players – Royce O’Neale, Justin Holiday, Cam Johnson, etc. Maybe they like the laid back lifestyle and access to the beach?

·   This will be a fun team to watch over the coming months as the projections show this to be a very balanced team.

 

11^th place – Vancouver – 642 points

·   This team is led by the 2 giants – Embiid and Jokic. Both MVP candidates so far this season. Both averaging 25 and 11 with Embiid getting the blocks and Joker getting the ATO. Amazing years for both so far.

·   They are getting Kemba Walker back now so he should help out in scoring, steals, and ATO

·   The other 2 high priced guys (Griffin $24 and Payton $23) would likely be disappointments based on years gone by and expectations

·   This is another team getting lots from unheralded fantasy players. Jordan Clarkson and Harrison Barnes have both been quite good.

·   Monte Morris, PJ Tucker, and Kelly Olynyk, Kyle Anderson, and others have all taken turns with prominent moments

·   Coby White looks like an All Star some nights and then at other times looks lost. He isn’t 21 yet.

·   The injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic hurts but he hadn’t really gotten on track yet. The whole ATL situation continues to be a mess.

·   Let’s see where this team can go with a healthy Kemba and Bogie and an improving Coby White

 

12^th place – Chilliwack – 620 points

·  If you thought the Golden list of injuries/excuses was long – buckle up.

·  Towns is snake bit. Injures his wrist and then gets covid?

·  Ja Morant missed time but appears ready to make that 2nd year leap. Again, I love this Grizzlies squad. 

·   James Harden wanted a trade. He was fat. Or was he? Did he fake it all to get him traded?

·   https://www.awesemo.com/sideaction/did-james-harden-somehow-fake-being-fat-to-get-traded-bjs/

·  Overall, I still like the looks of this squad. Even in 12^th – the Wack is just 120 points from 5^th. He could be there tomorrow.

·   The Wack is the Kings – with Fox, Buddy and Holmes leading the charge.

·   This team has some recognizable names just trying to contribute (Millsap, Boogie, Rubio, Rose, Favors). This is a bit of an ‘aged’ roster but again, in my view, are capable of easily climbing the rankings if they could ever get (and stay) healthy.

 

13^th place – Arctic – 618 points

·   Again, just 112 points from 5^th!!!

·   The Arctic leads the JBL in Free Agent players with now 9 on their roster.

·   The star of the show continues to be Nicola Vucevic (23-11, 51/42) – which is a bit odd to say considering this roster also has Kyrie and Rudy Gobert on it. Vooch is just as consistent as they come. Night in and night out – he gets you the numbers. Bravo.

·   Imagine if Kyrie wanted to play and put up the kind of numbers he is capable of?

·   Larry Nance Jr. remembered how to steal the ball. He has 31 steals in 13 games.

·   Wiggins and D-Lo can score but they don’t provide much else. Although Wiggins is now a blocks guy? Who knew?

·   The Tyler Herro bubble breakout, like many others, has not carried over exactly as planned. He’s still putting up 17ppg but his 3PT% has been off

·   The rest of this squad is a mixed bag of aging veterans (Carmelo/Gay) to surprising youngsters (Quickley/Reddish/Huerter) trying to provide fantasy stats for the coldest team in the JBL (at least we know how they stay warm in the Arctic)

 

14^th place – Maui – 478 points

·   Our only JBL XXX theme team finds themselves in the basement so far. Again, credit to Trevor for giving it a go but theme teams are a tough journey in a normal year yet alone during a pandemic.

·   Losing Thomas Bryant to a gruesome knee injury did not help. Missing games from your best player (Jimmy B) also doesn’t help. Rebounding and blocks was always going to be an issue with this B-build.

·   Malcolm Brogdon has been amazing and I’m impressed with Malik Beasley’s scoring.

·   LaMelo is the prize addition to the squad. Yes, he can’t shoot, but he’s already averaging 12ppg, 7reb, 1.5 steals and 2.87 ATO in just 25 minutes a game. At some point, the Hornets will have to unleash him.

·   The goal/challenge for Maui is to finish anywhere but 14^th so he gets a keeper or two and because of the limitations on his build Maui will have to ignore rebounds, blocks and FG% and see if he can improve in the other 4 categories.

·   Can this team move up? Yes, based on projections – there is that chance. And we still have a long way to go.

 

There it is gents. The 20% review. Hope you enjoyed some light reading.

 JBL XXX – Preseason Power Rankings…

Well gentlemen, here we are, just a week away from the JBL’s 30^th season. Amazing to think how long some of us (and really the majority of us) have been doing this basketball pool. Some with more success than others of course but yet we keep coming back for more. And really, the time from JBL draft night to the start of the regular NBA season might be one of the best times of the year. Why? Cause everyone is level. Everyone has 750 points in the standings. Everyone has hope. Everyone thinks they’ve drafted a team that could win the toughest Fantasy championship in all the land. And then the NBA season starts and reality kicks in….

As is tradition, I will now provide my annual Godfather preseason rankings. Last year I called French, Golden, Chilliwack, Bangkok and Maui as top 5 teams. Chilliwack and Maui were devastated by injuries and fell from contention. The Kok hung around for awhile but eventually fell victim to Seoul mind tricks. Idaho jumped into 2^nd as the team he drafted last season were all traded away in a couple of weeks and Cali exceeded all expectations and found a nice cozy home in the upper echelon of the final standings.

So, what about this year? How does it look? This will be very difficult to do as we never know about injuries and now we’ve added the dreaded Covid factor into the equation. I heard rumblings through Woj and Shams that many JBL owners were factoring in which players are most likely to get covid (ie. Lou Williams at the strip club). So, my rankings are based on the roster you have right now, using my projections, while also trying to factor in the injuries your team is dealing with to the start the season as well as your activity levels in the pool. (ie. I will call this the Idaho factor since he makes 37 trades a season).  Don't shoot the messenger essentially, we're all here for the fun of it. And if you feel different about these rankings, please post your thoughts below as it always makes for good banter. 

Without further ado….here we go. 

#1 – French Lick

What can I say about the team that has won 4 of the last 5 titles? Oh I know, the one year French didn’t win, he finished 2^nd. What more do you want to show French has figured out the secret sauce of the JBL? His 4 keepers were all very good values and that can be a real key to winning the JBL. We all know that the budget is $260 but with great keepers, French was drafting with a $325 budget. We know that Simmons, Tatum, Brown and Robinson would go for WAY more at auction so French is ahead of the game to begin with. There was also a very telling moment in the auction for those on the zoom call. At one point, as French and Golden were in a bidding war over a player the mighty Bangkok stated, “Should we be taking note that French and Golden are in a bidding war over this guy?” Interesting comment. And yes, you should take note.   

Why French can win:

French is stacked. Top to bottom. He does everything well. He knows what he’s doing and has really good players. I really don’t need to go through the list. It’s a balanced team where the highest price guy is $34 bucks. Nothing more to say. French is the team to beat. Again. 

Why French won’t win:

Injuries to Porzingis and Warren turn out to be more significant than projected. Maybe Chris Paul in PHX doesn’t work out as planned. And of course, the old injury bug finally strikes in French Lick.  Do Jordan and Green reach their projections? They are both aging and maybe don’t find their mojo again. Will Thibs hold back the blossoming Robinson? They are some cracks here that could come into play. We’ll have to wait and see how it goes but recent history shows us French will be in contention. 

#2 – Golden

I always seem to like my team coming out of most auctions – which hasn’t proved to be very good over the last couple of years. Last year I was struck down by injuries with both Kyrie and Otto flaking out while John Collins was busted for juicing. Can’t win when your best players miss games (ask the Wack). Golden is hoping to avoid any major injuries this go around and rely on a well-balanced team that should perform well in all 7 categories. Adebayo, Nurkic, and SGA again should all provide more value than what their JBL salary is. Aldridge, DeRozan, and Middleton add to a strong core. Solid but unspectacular guys like Curry, White, Fournier and Smart should provide support for this currently deep roster.

Why Golden can win:

The team stays healthy and the big names (Aldridge and DeRozan) remain in situations to put up similar stats. Breakout candidates White, Clarke, and Bazley perform well. 

Why Golden won’t win:

DeRozan, Aldridge, and Fournier are traded to teams where their performance drops. Breakout candidate Bazley underperforms and the Golden ‘special water pond’ that contaminated John Collins last year strikes again.

#3 – Brussels

Despite the chat room being down on this squad, this is a very deep and talented roster. The only slight weakness, in terms of categories, I see on the surface could be in 3PT%. This team is very deep with Doncic, PG13, Kawhi, Sabonis, FVV, Wood, Bridges, and Horford as the backbone. This team has requisite late round guys like Bridges, Thybulle and Garland who could have breakout years for this squad. I like what Brussels has done here. He appears to be trying to model his ways after his good buddy French. I think we can safely say the days of Brussels and French hooking up on 10 player deals are over and done with. 

Why Brussels can win:

The three-headed (P-cubed) monster of big men (Plumlee, Poeltl, and Powell) all reach their lofty projections. Adding quality production from these big men only solidifies the core.

Why Brussels won’t win:

The 3 headed monster of big men don’t hit. And what if the Clippers duo of Kawhi and PG13 don't work out? Another possibility could be Timmy getting in the way of himself. Trader Tim loves to trade. But can he resist the temptation? Can he hold back where/when necessary? 

#4 - Chilliwack

Another team I really like coming out of the auction. Benny is clearly working a 3PT% punt right now as his only deep marksmen appear to be KAT and Powell. This is another deep team that has a lot of quality from 1 to 15 on the roster. The wildcard in the Wack’s success is actually his former MVP – Mr. Harden. Where does James play this season? Does he remain in Houston? Or does he go elsewhere? What kind of numbers does the Beard put up on another team? I would imagine whether he’s in Philly or Brooklyn he will still be putting up huge numbers. That’s why I’m calling Harden the steal of the draft (for big names) at his $48 dollar price tag.  Considering guys like Vucevic, Butler, and Beal all went around the same price, Harden feels like a bargain. And yes, his 3PT jacking doesn’t help – but when you’re scoring 30ppg and getting 125 steals and 60 blocks from a guard position – you’ve got a good deal. 

Why Chilliwack can win:

The Wack finally stays healthy and now has some depth to work with. He’s got a lot of ‘middling’ big men and if they work out he will get the big man stats he needed. The Wack could/should have at least four 20ppg guys and is very strong in all the categories. If the Wack can even get to be a middling 3PT% team then this could be his year.

Why Chilliwack wont’ win:

His middling bigs (Boogie, Theis, Holmes, Zubac, Favors) don’t pan out. There are injury, age, and timeshare concerns with those guys that could factor in here. 

#5 - Seoul

Another strong draft from Seoul in my eyes. We battled on a number of players (Adams, Tobias, Lavine, Collins) so this squad has a lot of guys that were on Golden’s radar. We know Seoul is good for a couple of trades with the Kok to get his better players so I would imagine this Seoul squad does change quite a bit over the year.

Why Seoul can win:

Zion and his band of merry men stay healthy and match projections. This team boasts potentially six 20ppg guys. They can rebound and shoot so there is lots to like with this team.

Why Seoul won’t win:

The ATO on this squad projects to be dead last. That’s not good. Also, does this squad have enough blocks? Will Zion stay healthy and how does that pairing work with Adams? How does Collins fit in with the suddenly deep ATL roster? Does Kyle stay in TO and can he stay healthy? Can the role players (Rozier, Jones Jr, Zeller, Hernangomez) make enough of an impact when called upon?

#6 - Idaho

Again, as mentioned above, the roster Idaho drafted will be vastly different in a few weeks time. He’s already moved on from Westbrook and Nunn (which was a good deal for Idaho). And we know Idaho works the waiver wire and makes countless trades so this team has a load of potential to move up in the rankings. This is a deep team with a lot of depth but there are some injury concerns already with JJJ to start the season. 

Why Idaho can win:

It’s finally his year. He’s been saying it’s his year for many years, so why not this year? Idaho will turn over the roster where needed. He seems to win trades when he makes them (maybe he wears us down so much that we just give in?). Idaho could win it if he turns the weaknesses of this squad into strengths.  Plus, as mentioned, this is a deep roster and it should be able to manage through a couple injuries if needed. 

Why Idaho won’t win:

The JBL Gods are listening. I don’t love the percentages of this team right now and I think the ATO is weak as well. What does Idaho do with the 3PT jackers like Markkanen, Gordon, and now Carter Jr? Outside of Ayton, is there a player on this roster that will shoot over 50%?  I honestly wouldn’t want Idaho to draft a team that he loved from the get-go – cause that would leave our Inbox empty.  That said, imagine the chat room if Idaho ever wins this thing. 

#7 – Bangkok

Anytime the Kok gets pegged in the 7-hole I’m sure the Wack will pipe in with some witty comments about the Kok’s average finish in the JBL over the years. But I’ll leave that to the Wack to chime in on. I’m here to talk about this Kok team that is top heavy. They can shoot FG%, rebound and block. All strong in my opinion. He’s got the big boys, Giannis, Jrue, the Headmaster Jamal Murray, Pascal and OG and Mr. Whiteside. All good picks if they perform up to potential. The concern for me is the depth of this team. Do we know what Luke Kennard, Josh Hart, Cedi Osman, Jaxson Hayes, Hunter and others are going to provide week in and week out? Not yet anyways. I like Donte and Troy Brown as upside guys but I’m still left with some questions about the guys in the 9-15 spots on this roster. My favourite youngster on this roster is definitely Malachi Flynn. 

Why Bangkok could win:

The big boys are awesome and these depth guys have big, breakout seasons. Wiseman wins ROY and others step up in big ways and Mr. Whiteside carries over the success he had last year in PDX. 

Why Bangkok won’t win:

The team’s depth doesn’t pan out. The team doesn’t look to be strong in 3PT% or ATO at this point. 

#8 – Cali

Cali is coming off a 5^th place finish from last season when I didn’t like the looks of the team at all coming out of last year’s auction. This year, it’s much better, but I still have questions. To me, this is looking at the all comeback roster. Cali is counting on big years from Durant, Oladipo, Otto Porter, Capela and others to have big years after missing time due to injuries last season. I like the 3-headed monster potential of AD, KD, and Clint Capela. Much like last year’s team that didn’t care about scoring, I’m wondering if this current version has enough PTS as well. And the ATO in this group appears concerning as well. Cali’s 2 rookie selections are both having decent preseasons and could factor into this roster on a weekly basis. 

Why Cali could win:

Passion and dedication. Who doesn’t love the Marko post in the chat room? He’s all in and I love it. Plus, he’s backed by NASA scientists working in some secret war room in California so anything is possible. If things are working, Cali will be willing to make the necessary adjustments to the roster. The JBL is just better with Marko in the pool. 

Why Cali won’t win:

Winning the JBL without valuable keepers is very difficult to do. While Cali brought back Johnson and Oladipo I’m not sure they are providing as much value as some of the other teams. A lot of things need to go really well for this current roster to win it all.

#9 – Norfolk

This team can score. Flat out put it in the basket. Led by downtown dynamos Lillard, Trae, and Booker this team should score a lot of points and be very strong in 3PT%.  This is another team though, like Bangkok, that I wonder about their depth guys. Will Kanter earn enough minutes in Portland or be pushed to 3^rd string by hard charging Harry Giles? Will Dinwiddie and Prince get to touch the ball in Brooklyn? Will JJ Redick and Cole Anthony carve out roles in NO and ORL to be fantasy relevant? And outside of Drummond, who grabs the rebounds on this team? I like the scoring of this squad but wonder about the other categories.

Why Norfolk could win:

The back end of this roster turns into gold. Dinwiddie is traded and lights it up somewhere else; Cole Anthony becomes a star in ORL; and the “big boys” of this roster continue to excel in everything they do. Norfolk will have some roster adjustments to make but at least he’s got the scoring part sorted out.

Why Norfolk won’t win:

The Drummond factor could play a role here. Does he get traded? Does he still put up monster numbers? Does Trae get impacted by ATL’s new found depth? Can Booker expand his fantasy game beyond just PTS?  A lot of questions still to answer as the season gets underway with this squad. 

#10 – Juan de Fuca

This is a pretty decent Juan roster. As I review and type this I’m wondering if this slot is too low already? I’m concerned about this teams’ ability to shoot 3PT% and get ATO though. I see those 2 categories as massive drawbacks. This team will need some big seasons from guys like Noel, Michael Porter Jr and PJ Washington in order to climb the rankings. Lebron and Westy are leading the way but we’ve already heard that Westy will be rested in back-to-back games so there go some man games already. What about LeBron? Does he get rested too? I really feel like this team go up or down quite easily as I review the projections. It’s a deep team but I’m really not sure about the depth. Is Nunn still good? Is Edwards good? Is Graham going to be able to do it again now that LeMelo is in town? I have so many questions about this team…..

Why Juan could win:

What if everything played out the way Juan is hoping? Edwards is ROY. Devonte has a big year. Porter Jr breaks out. Thibs plays Noel 40 minutes a night. LeVert becomes a star after he’s traded. Rui improves in WASH. Baynes is a hit in TO. Anything is possible at this time of the year. 

Why Juan won’t win:

Just too many unknowns about this roster. 

#11 – Maui

The best theme team in a long time gets a bit of love here. First of all, we draft 210 players in our JBL pool and Trev decided to focus on just those players with the last name starting with B. How many guys does that narrow the field down to? By rough count it appears there are roughly 60 guys that would qualify for this B team. So, Trevor was behind the 8-ball sort of to begin with but he did pretty well considering his parameters. I’m not sure if the B team model holds for the season? Will Trev only sign B-named FA’s? Or will the team transition to a more normal looking roster over the year?  As it stands now, this team will struggle in Blocks and FG% - but that was going to be the case anyways when you have the Ball brothers on the roster. This team looks to be OK in steals, ATO and 3PT% and even in scoring so this will be interesting to watch. A core of Butler, Bryant, Brogdon, Bledsoe, Ball, Bagley, Bertans, and RJ Barrett is pretty darn good considering the parameters of what he tried to do. For the only other 30 year member, I say congrats to Trevor for creating this theme team.

Why Maui could win:

He gets Beal and Booker (and some Blocks) in trades….and guys like LaMelo, Barrett and Bagley all have monster years.

Why Maui won’t win:

A limited field of players available if there are injuries to this roster (unless of course the B theme was just for the auction).

#12 – Arctic

Arctic started strong with high scoring keepers of Wiggins and Russell and added Kyrie and Gobert to the roster very quickly at auction. I feel Vucevic was a tad high in terms of price but he is a very good fantasy player. I love the Hayes pick for his rookie. I think this roster will look very different in the next few weeks as the last 6 players on this roster were all auto-pilot picks for $1 late in the draft. If Arctic can turn those over into more productive players I think this team has the potential to move up the rankings a few spots. But as currently constructed, this is where the Arctic lands.

Why Arctic could win:

Some shrewd FA signings and big years from Hayes, Herro and his big boys could lead this bunch up the standings.

Why Arctic won’t win:

The depth guys just don’t come through. Lots of work to do with this roster but let’s reserve judgment until we see some changes.

#13 – Bellingham

This is a much better roster than Bellingham’s first crack at the JBL. That said, this team is coming off a 13^th place finish and needs to continue to move up the standings and get good keepers in order to solidify the base of the roster. There are some really good options on this squad with Curry, Beal, and Hayward leading the way. Add in secondary guys like Wall, Allen, Ibaka, and Love and we’re getting there. Some of the depth guys will need to have solid seasons and this team does have the potential to move up the standings/rankings this year. 

Why Bellingham could win:

His big boys are great and the roles guys have bigger years than expected (ie. Jerami Grant, Boucher, Kevin Porter).  The potential is there with this squad so let’s see how he manages the roster over the coming weeks. The JBL isn’t easy and started as an expansion team is hard. But there is a path….

Why Bellingham won’t win:

Again, it’s hard to win without great keepers to set up your core. The Ham N Eggers should be focused on getting into that top 8 and getting 3 keeper spots to set themselves up for a big 21/22 season. 

#14 – Vancouver

Toughest act in the JBL is trying to compete when you don’t have any keepers to start your season. Vancouver was working under those constraints and is trying to build a roster to move up and get some keepers for next season. I like the Jokic and Embiid pairing but outside of Joel – who is going to block shots on this team? I think this team will struggle with percentages as well. I think the realistic expectations for this squad would be again, shoot for top 8 and try to get 3 keepers for next season. 

Why Vancouver could win:

The Jizzlies stay covid-free while the rest of the JBL is ravaged by the virus. Blake Griffin turns back the clock. Coby White becomes a star. Jokic learns to block. Obi Toppin averages 20/10. I could go on….

Why Vancouver won’t win:

For the umpteenth time, you need a good couple of keepers, undervalued, to start as the base of your JBL roster. One step at a time. Get some good keepers and then build from there. 

OK, that’s it for me and my Godfather preseason rankings. Just the fact that the chat room is going crazy over my opinions on fantasy basketball makes the JBL a pretty fun place. I hope you enjoyed the read. I think the best thing about my rankings is that they are usually wrong so everyone can still feel safe and secure that they really do have a chance at this year’s JBL title.

Best of luck to everyone this season.