Week 19 - Short Week after the All Star break...

 Quick thoughts from the week that was Period 19:

 

·         Bangkok won the week at 1104; then Idaho 1035 (thanks to Harden/Booker); and then Maui at 919

·         Overall, Maui sits at 1281; French at 1105; and Bangkok at 1069

·         I think Maui tops out at 1294 while I think their floor is 1201 now. Quite impressive with just 6 weeks to go.

·         I think French can get to 1177 if everything went perfectly. I think French’s floor is around 1050.

·         And Bangkok can get to roughly 1136 in the short term. Maybe the 1160’s if all things go well. And if things go sour, Kok could fall into the 970 range.

·         If things go really poorly for Kok or French, maybe, just maybe, Brussels could cause some late season dramatics if they get hot

·         And remember, the JBL record for most points in a season is 1237. Maui can eclipse it and be anointed the ‘best team ever’ mantle for his 2021/22 season. Can they do it??

·         Any concern that Harden would negatively affect Embiid’s MVP campaign can be put to rest.

·         And we now know, again, that Harden quit on the Nets as he looks in fine form in his new uniform. The biggest impact from his arrival has been the play of Tobias Harris. He’s stunk since James arrived.

·         It feels like 4 JBL teams are locked in their spots in the Standings. Seoul in 8^th; Jizzlies in 12^th, Ham in 13^th and Norfolk in 14^th. I just don’t see them moving either way, up or down.

·         Norfolk at 217 points would represent the 3^rd worst point total in the history of the JBL. The worst ever is 191. Can Norfolk really sink that low? They are 14^th in 4 categories already and 13^th in 2 others. The only thing saving them is blocks (7^th). But there is room to drop unfortunately so Norfolk could be making the wrong sort of history. All that said, he’s still grinding every week, signing free agents, trying anything. I give the Doctor full props for his efforts.

·         The Lakers are in 9^th. The Pelicans and Blazers are 2 wins behind. The Spurs are 3 wins behind. I can see the Pels catching the Lakers which would drop them to 10^th – but I’m not sure the Blazers or Spurs will pass the Lakers for that final play-in spot. So, based on the current standings, we’d likely see a Lakers in New Orleans one and done play-in game. Oh the drama.

·         Markelle Fultz is back today. Long road for him. But where the heck is Jonathan Isaac? He’s been out 2 years now? I don’t even remember the last time he played. He was drafted at Auction for big bucks ($26?) by Norfolk and when he was dropped he was saw the biggest FA bid in JBL history (I think) at $110 bucks to acquire his services. That was November 5^th, 2021, and we still don’t have any indication if he’s going to step on the floor this season. I’m pretty sure his last game was August 2, 2020 in the bubble and he played July 31, 2020 as well. Those were cameo appearances as he had been off injured since January 1, 2020. His last ‘normal’ game was Dec 30/2019. He played 32 minutes and put up 13 points, 9 boards, 3 steals and 2 blocks. That’s 791 days ago. What on earth is going on? And when he comes up for Auction next season – how much are you going to be willing to spend on this guy? He could be the massive swing guy next year as you could completely waste a couple of bucks – or he could perform like the $20-$30 guy and provide massive value.

·         Shout out to Kyle Kuzma for the heater he is on. 22ppg, 9reb, 1stl, 1.2 blk, 47/44% over his last dozen or so games. Wow.

·         Bam Adebayo reminding us all of his potential over the last couple of weeks. 21/11/1.9/1.5/55%

·         Giannis and Jokic on the same fantasy team is insane. If only Cali had a better supporting cast.

·         Luka on fire. 34/10/1.1/0.7 on 48-42% and 2.06 ATO.

·         DeMar DeRozan last 10 games – 37ppg, 6reb, 10 steals, shooting 57% on 25 shots per game and 42% from downtown.

·         CJ McCollum certainly enjoying his time in New Orleans. 28-6-5 with 11 steals in 7 games. Shooting 53/43% with 2.600 ATO.

 

That’s it for this short week….I’ve got some ideas for next week already so we’ll see what I can come up with….

Week 18 - Random Thoughts

No real theme this week....just thoughts.

The dunk contest was really bad. Cole Anthony putting on those boots and then failing like 3-4 times before making it was a really bad way to start.

Jalen Green took 9 attempts to make his first dunk.

JTA was out of his league to begin with before even putting on the Jason Richardson jersey. He does know that just because you wear the jersey doesn't mean you can jump like him right?

Obi Toppin's tap it off the backboard dunk was good but when he's telling everyone to watch the replay to appreciate it - means you've failed in the first place. I shouldn't have to watch a replay of something to get excited about what he did.

I agree with the many Twitter folks who say that D-Wade wrecked the dunk contest a few years ago when he rigged the judging scores to ensure his guy won. No big names are gonna want to do the dunk contest - even more so now.

I liked the 3PT contest and KAT certainly backed up his brash pre-contest statements that he would win and this would confirm he's the best shooting big man of all time. While he's only mid 20's if he keeps this up he's gonna have a case.

I might be in the minority but I liked the format of the skills competition. Maybe it's because my boys, Garland and Giddey, both did really well. How come Giddey can hit 3 straight corner 3's in this competition but shoots 25% from downtown for the season?

And the Rising Stars games were pretty good once the scores got closer to 50. I don't like that you can win on a free throw though.

Today's our JBL keeper deadline. Do I expect any deals? No. I don't. Why? Mostly because I think people are happy with who they have already have as keepers and I honestly think about half the league has checked out. This happens often when it's pretty clear that there are only a couple of teams who can still win. It's a 3-horse race right now and Maui is still in the driver's seat. That said, French can get into the 1200 point range quite easily if things go well so I wouldn't say it's over.

Right now, Maui has 1255, French 1137 and Bangkok 1069. Let's see how much movement there is over the next couple of weeks.

What do I think each of the 3 title contenders should do tonight? Well, Maui should acquire a solid point guard and let Eric Bledsoe walk. He's not in the Blazers plans and Maui has +26 in ATO available with some solid ATO. Hello Raul Neto. Of course, he should get Draymond and Lonzo back in a few weeks too so that always helps the situation.

Bangkok should be looking to acquire a 3PT marksman. The blocks category is too little too late but there is +39 points in 3PT% with another stud downtown marksman. 

French is staring at +65 points with a few good category moves. That gets him to just over 1200 points. Wowzers. French is close with the group he has and there are no rumblings that he's closing in on any deals. But if he could get to the 1200 range we have a race. 

Will Bangkok try and upgrade using one of his 7 potential keepers? If he doesn't, it's win for the rest of us as that's 3 really good players back into auction. Does he keep the higher priced guys like Dejounte for $42 or Tyrese for $34? Or does he keep the cheaper talent like Hart $6, Jones, $7, Rozier $11 and Edwards $19? And will Kok favourite Keldon Johnson at $20 really be considered? I'll admit, Keldon has been WAY better than I thought he would be but he's clearly the #7 guy on this list. 

I think Maui and Kok have the best collection of keepers while I think Juan and Brussels both have the best bargain value set of keepers. No stars but cheap and valued talent to form a solid core going into Auction next year.

Golden has been poking around a couple teams trying to upgrade potential keepers but with Bridges $19, Garland $19 and Giddey $12 in place it's not too bad. My concern already though is the poor 3PT shooting that Miles and Giddey will start me off with next season. They are 2 of the worst 3PT% volume guys to roster in fantasy basketball. 

After the deadline, I'll take a stab at who I think each team's keepers will be at the end of the season. Some teams are easier than others for sure. And of course, some players could get traded this offseason and become fantasy relevant again. Look at Richaun Holmes. From 15 and 10 to being a likely drop tonight. If he was traded this offseason he could be fantasy relevant again next season. But I think I have a pretty good grasp of who each time likes for next season. 

And we really do have a distinct group of tiers already. We know the top 3 teams already and then 4th place is between Brussels and the Wack. 5th to 8th is one of those teams plus Golden, Juan and Seoul. 9th to 12th is pretty locked in with Cali, Arctic, Idaho and Jizzlies while Bellingham appears locked into 13th and Norfolk is destined for 14th I'm afraid. 

So, here we are, 12 hours from the deadline and all is quiet. How many trade offers are out there in the JBL world right now? I'm betting it's very low and very quiet. But we'll see if there is any late night activity. I doubt it. But we'll see. 

Week 17 - NBA trade deadline deals

It was a crazy busy and exciting trade deadline week in the NBA. Here are my thoughts on some trades and JBL impacts:

 ·         First off, did you know that Norfolk had 7 players traded during the deadline?

 ·         Harden for Simmons/Curry/Drummond and 2 first round picks. The Nets win this one for me. Harden appears fat and lazy. He’s having a horrible year (by his standards) and he’s shooting 41/33%. Brussels must be excited to get Big Ben back. Hope he’s mentally able to return to the court soon. It’s been 5-6 months since he played so I wonder if his mental health will improve enough so he can return to the court. Yes, heavy sarcasm here. Imagine a 76ers vs Nets playoff matchup where Kyrie couldn’t play in Brooklyn and Simmons wouldn’t want to play in Philly. Will Drummond get minutes with the Nets? He might be an interesting play for Norfolk. I think Curry takes a big hit as there are a lot of mouths to feed in Brooklyn. But Kyrie, Curry, KD, Simmons, and Alridge/Drummond/Claxton and Joe Harris and Patty Mills and Cam Thomas for more shooting off the bench. This is potentially a scary team….if they make the playoffs.

 ·         Is it just me or did the Mavs sell low on Porzingis? I know he’s hurt all the time – but Dinwiddiie and Bertans? That’s it? Dinwidde is averaging 12ppg and shooting 37/31. Bertans had a career season a couple years ago now and is bombing away at 35/32%. I’m not sure the Mavs got any better. All Norfolk wants is for the Unicorn to actually play again.

 ·         I love the Celtics acquiring Derrick White. Just not sure it helps Derrick White’s fantasy value. He goes from starting in SA to playing off the bench in BOS. He’s a really good fantasy player and has 50 steals and 42 blocks in 49 games. Does Josh Richardson play at all in SA?? Or does Devin Vassell get first crack at the SG spot there? Maybe some added value for him down the stretch.

 ·         Daniel Theis back to Boston. JBL free agent fodder. Any value Dennis Schroder had should be gone. Why would Houston play him over their young guys? I wonder how he feels about that 4/84 Laker offer now?

 ·         Bagley to the Pistons is interesting. The Wack likes that move as surely the Pistons will play him. His arrival likely means less time for Beef Stew as Bagley’s best position is Center. The question remains though – is Bagley any good? I guess we’ll find out. Ibaka to the Bucks? Could he play the Brook Lopez role and back up Portis and Giannis? I like DiVincenzo to the Kings. He should have a fantasy role there I think.

 ·         My Hornets needed a Center and while I was selfishly hoping it would be Richaun Holmes they did end up with Montrezl Harrell. While he doesn’t play any D I think he should be very fantasy-friendly playing in one of the highest scoring offenses in the NBA. With Dinwiddie gone, does Ish Smith become the starting point guard in Washington? Or is it Raul Neto? Whoever it is, shouldn’t the starting PG of any team be on a JBL roster?

 ·         The Torrey Craig to Phoenix for Jalen Smith is a minor deal. The Suns get the veteran and the Pacers take a flier on the 10^th pick from the 2020 draft. Since I have Isaiah Jackson I am a bit worried that Smith’s arrival might impact his minutes. Same could be said for Goga as well. And look at all the guys the Suns could have taken instead of Smith at pick 10. Vassell (11), Haliburton (12), Cole Anthony (15), Tyrese Maxey (21) or Desmond Bane (30). The Suns missed out.

 ·         Thad Young is a Raptor. I thought a lot of people would have interest in him. He has barely played in San Antonio so I like to think he’s well rested. With the amount of minutes Nick Nurse plays his starters maybe Thad can get in on some of those and give some of the starters a rest now and again.  In 24 minutes last season in Chicago he averaged 12ppg, 6reb, 1.1 steals and shot 56% with 2.14 ATO. Not sure he can be that good in TO but he was worth the flier in my opinion.

 ·         The Jazz lander Nickeil Alexander-Walker in a 3-team deal and he could get some minutes since Joe Ingles was traded away and was out for the season.  I just want him to be more like his big cousin but his 37/31 shooting splits and 8.9 Tendex fall way short of being fantasy relevant on most nights.

 ·         The Pacers getting Tyrese and Buddy for Sabonis/Lamb/Holidays was a shocker for me. I thought the Kings would want to move on from Fox and keep Haliburton. But as they say, you have to give up something to get something. I love the trade for the Pacers. They get younger and can decide what they want to do with this roster more over the offseason. Brogdon is already 29 and is constantly hurt so maybe they will move him this summer. Haliburton is 22, Turner is just 26, Duarte 24, Jackson 20, and Goga 22 so maybe they can rebuild in a hurry. I think Tyrese’s numbers could be even better in Indy depending on the healthy bodies they have playing. The question will be whether the Kok decides to keep him for $34 bucks. And as much as I like Tyrese in Indy, I do like that the Kings did something. Getting Sabonis is a good get. They brought in 6 new players at the deadline to shake things up. Do I think they make the playoffs? No. Are they better now after the trade? Unsure. But Sabonis is 25, Fox is 24, DiVicenzo is 25, and Davion Mitchell is just 23 so they have some young talent. The big loser was my boy Richaun Holmes. Something is up with him. He’s not the same beast anymore. Maybe they will move on from him this summer because he’s too good to be a backup.

 ·         My Blazers blew it up. Bye bye CJ McCollum. This wasn’t a deal about improving the roster so much as it was clearing out salaries. Josh Hart is a useful players but his contract for next season isn’t guaranteed so they could move on from him too. The Blazers also moved Norm Powell and Lord Covington so they were really cleaning house. Bledsoe’s 19 million dollar contract is only partially guaranteed (3.5 million) so I wouldn’t expect him back next season. But Bledsoe could soak up some minutes in PDX this season. And the Justise Winslow reclamation project continues. In the 18/19 season he averaged 12 and 5 with 1.1 steals and 1.990 ATO in Miami. Will he be able to get back to that?? Unknown. But for the final 22 games of the season, Golden was willing to take a flier on someone who has to play a lot of minutes simply because his competition is CJ Elleby, Trenton Watford and Greg Brown.  Simons and Nurkic are the big winners here as they should be the focal points of this offense.  It will be interesting to see what happens with Lillard this offseason and whether he wants to be a part of this rebuilding project. And Nurk is a FA so do they bring him back? My prediction is that the Blazers trade Dame this offseason. And I fully support that move.

 ·         The Pelicans are going for the playoffs with this move. I like CJ in NO but he does take shots away from my boy Ingram. My empty stocks Ingram. A lineup of CJ, Herb, BI, Zion, and Jonas could be scary to deal with. And yes, Herb is already a core piece for this Pelicans team. The Kok has done extremely well with that signing. I wonder who would say no to a Scottie Barnes for Herb Jones deal?

 ·         LeVert is a Cavalier. While I think it’s good for the Cavs to have another scorer, I don’t like it for my boy Garland (wow, I’ve said that a lot about Golden players).

 ·         I mentioned Powell and Covington to the Clippers. And when I think about that roster I think, man, they have too many guys. They have almost 15 guys who could play regular minutes on any given night. I don’t have any Clippers so makes no matter to me. But when you are that deep it feels like coaches will ride the hot hand so some nights your guys play and other nights they ride the pine. Not a good thing for fantasy basketball.

 ·         I think that was it for NBA trades. The JBL keeper deadline is not that far away (Feb 20^th).  I can always tell the interest level in the JBL by a couple of factors. How many votes a poll gets and how many FA bids there are. Based on both of those, interest is low right now. This is the usual time that interest fades for some. The title race is limited to a few teams. Hope is lost. Interest starts to wane. But, this is the last chance to set your team up for success next season. Do you have those keepers in place for next year to give yourself a core of cheap and talented players?

 ·         And with all the talk about expansion and the lack of appetite to do so, I always encourage owners to ask themselves about their own commitment level to the JBL. Do you still enjoy it? Of course we want teams to be active and sign FA’s and make trades – but that can’t be mandated. Heck, look at our current leader – Maui hasn’t made a single trade and has only signed a couple FA’s. But we’ve seen teams like Manila Ice (2018) and Manhattan Beach (2017) pull the plug as they just didn’t have the time or the passion to continue on. And that’s OK. But it’s the annual check in to review your own commitment for next season. And if you have doubts, let me know, as there is a lineup of willing owners to come and join the JBL next season. But if you still love the JBL and love the game, then I look forward to doing it all again next year.

 ·         And it’s also the time for the deadline reminders when it comes to keepers for next season. Anyone drafted at auction is eligible for protection. Anyone signed as a Free Agent (who was not originally drafted at Auction), needs to play 20 regular season NBA games to be eligible for protection. So, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, TJ Warren, Jon Isaac and others drafted at auction are eligible for protection (Rule 5.10).  John Wall, who wasn’t drafted at auction, if someone signed him as a free agent now would need to play 20 regular season games to be eligible for protection. Any player in the FINAL year of their contract, even if dropped to free agency, will not be eligible for protection and goes back to Auction.

 ·         So, will the JBL see any deadline deals??  I’m all for having every JBL team update their ‘On the Block’ page so we all know who you might be willing to trade. Let’s see if we can get some deals going. We know Seoul is looking to upgrade his keeper list and might be willing to part with Scottie Barnes. We know Bellingham is looking to move Jarrett Allen. We know Arctic likely has too many cheap options to protect all of them. We know Norfolk is looking for a keeper option if he can escape the basement. So, if you feel like getting some crappy Idaho offers – update your On the Block page.

 

That’s it for this week. Enjoy the SuperBowl!!

 

Week 16 - Expansion and Free Agents

This week I thought I would look at JBL expansion opportunities. I know, I know, it’s hard to improve on perfection after 31 years but it’s always good to discuss new ideas or thoughts on how we can make it even better (if that’s even possible).

A recent JBL survey around expansion showed that 8 teams (57%) were in favour of expanding to 15 teams while 6 teams (43%) were not in favour of expanding. And, as we’ve discussed many times, the biggest drawback to expansion, for some teams, is the belief that the Free Agent pool is already pretty slim and adding another team would only further dilute the FA pool.

For me, I love that I have to work the wire and look for FA gems. Sometimes you hit and sometimes you miss. I found Brunson, Caruso, Pat Bev, Otto Porter, Grayson Allen, Garry Harris, Ayo Dosunmo, and now Isaiah Jackson all on the wire this year. Of course, I’ve also had Saben Lee, Isaiah Roby, Xavier Tillman and Gary Payton rostered a few weeks here and there. So I fully appreciate the crapshoot that is JBL free agent signings. But to say you can’t find any free agent gems is simply not true. And in most cases, you aren’t looking at a free agent as someone you need to get 50 games out of – you just need them for 1-2 weeks typically while so-and-so gets healthy.

So how could we get to adding a 15^th team? I’m not saying we MUST add a 15^th team but how could we make it work? Let me throw some ideas out.

Current structure: 14 teams, 16 players, 224 players total

Option 1:  15 teams, 15 players per team – 225 total players

I know this probably isn’t the best idea as it would essentially remove the IR slot from our current roster and with all the injuries and Covid cases it’s been tough to field 12 healthy bodies each week.

I have been a supporter of this notion because it prevents hoarding of players. Guys like Jamal Murray, James Wiseman, Jonathan Isaac, TJ Warren, and even Kyrie Irving – if you didn’t have this extra IR slot would you be as inclined to hold onto them? This puts 14 players back into the free agent pool right away. 

Option 2: 15 teams, 15 players per team – 225 total players – but you start 10 players each week (instead of the current 12)

Now this fundamentally changes the JBL active rosters as we’ve always started 12 players. Historical JBL records would likely never be matched. Do we care?

We could go with 3-5 guards, 3-5 forwards, and 1-3 centers to get to your 10 starters each week. You could have 5 bench players regardless of injured status.

It would be 225 total players so pretty much the same number as today but we get one more team into the mix.

Personally, while it works, it’s not for me as I am a traditionalist when it comes to the 12 starters and comparing the current season to our historical JBL records. I throw it out here but I am not a fan. 

 

Option 3: 15 teams, 17 players per team – 255 players total. (12 active, 5 bench)

With back to back years of covid and a lot of injuries and resting, what if we extended our benches 1 extra player? Yes, we have to go deeper at the draft but it also means that you can hang on and wait for injured guys to return. Or take a flier on Moses Moody in case GSW trades him at the deadline or snag an extra rookie and see if he pans out or whatever the case may be. 

The focus shifts more to the draft and maybe less on the week to week search for free agents. Draft well (like Maui) and you don’t need to sign Free Agents. This option could also see more teams hoarding injured players for cheap dollars. I’m sure Benny will love that aspect. But I guess the question is really how impactful this has been over the years? This year guys like Wall, TJ Warren, Jon Isaac, Kawhi, Wiseman, Jamal Murray and some others have all been stashed away on people’s IR slots. But how many will be impactful for next season (if they even get protected at all)? Obviously Kawhi and Murray appear to be massive bargains but will it play out that way?

This option, which would be 5 bench spots, regardless of injury status, also provides more flexibility for those who want to hang onto injured guys or for those who want 5 healthy bench options (instead of the 3 currently) to rotate into their lineups.

 

Option 4: 15 teams, 16 players per team – 240 players.

Wait, what? Isn’t this just pure expansion with the same roster limits we have today? Why yes, yes it is.

And I’m discussing it because I think the notion that that free agent pool is shallow, while maybe true on the surface and at first glance, isn’t actually true at all. Maybe it’s our perceptions that these waiver wire guys aren’t that good. I think the reality is that if you took each JBL’s team worst player (or one of many options in some cases) and created a team (14 players) and put that team up against 14 free agents – who would be the better squad??

Well, you know me….I’m all in for that analysis.

So here’s what I did. Here’s the JBL scrap heap squad. Don’t be offended on the player I picked as many teams could had multiple choices for the ‘Scrap Heap’ team. . This is for fun. And it’s on a per game basis.

JBL Scraps:   Rondo, K.Edwards, Beasley, Stephenson, T.Davis, Bagley, Klay, I.Jackson, Quickley, Ross, Gay, NAW, Goga, Vincent

 

JBL Free Agents:  Payton, Otto, Tyus Jones, JaVale McGee, Grayson Allen, Kyle Anderson, Max Strus, Crowder, Dedmon, Howard, Caruso, Jeff Green, Danny Green, Cory Joseph.

 

So how did those 14 players’ totals on each team stack up against each other on a per game basis?

 

Points:             9.0 to 8.1 for the Scrap Heap

Rebounds:      4.1 to 3.4 for the FA’s

Steals:              0.8 to 0.6 for the FA’s

Blocks:             0.4 to 0.4 - even

ATO:                1.920 to 1.610 for the FA’s

FG%:                48.5% to 41.6% for the FA’s

3PT%:              38.3% to 33.1% for the FA’s

 

So what does that really prove? That the team of FA’s is better than the JBL scraps? Does it show that there are some valuable players in the Free Agent pool if you look real close? We’re never going to find a 20ppg guy or someone who blocks 2 shots a game on the waiver wire this late in the season. But, throughout the year, there were some fantastic free agent finds.

I was thinking about expansion and maybe we need to add more money to the $130 Free Agent budget? If the pool was ‘shallow’ would adding more dollars allow teams to rotate players more often? I don’t think adding any money accomplishes anything as most teams still have money remaining and the best free agents seem to be acquired for less than $10 bucks. Adding more money means larger bids and therefore more $10 dollar FA’s. Currently, the best FA’s have all been found with under $10 dollar bids. You don't need more FA dollars to find good FA's.

And looking at some of those Free Agent stars I’m amazed at how many of them were snagged off the wire for just a couple of bucks. A quick journey how each team has spent their $130 Free Agent budget this year.

 

Arctic - $18 dollars remaining – spent $40 and then another $50 to acquire John Wall twice. And he still isn’t playing.

Bangkok - $38 remaining – uncovered gems like Herb Jones $2, Luke Kennard $4, Isaiah Hartenstein $2 and others. Successful FA finds have contributed greatly to the Kok’s title aspirations.

Bellingham - $14 remaining – big bids on Huerter $28, THT $23, Hunter $28 and Coffey $21 but the star acquisition was surprisingly Malik Monk for $2

Brussels - $0 remaining – he’s spent all of it and his best pick ups were cheap signings like Brandon Clarke $1, Okungwu $1 and Yurtseven $4. Maxey for $52 ended up in Arctic to complete the trade for Alperen Sengun.

Cali - $84 remaining – the most FA dollars remaining of any team. Best pickup was Lu Dort for $17.

Chilliwack - $68 remaining – Carmelo for $20 and Patty Mills for $1 have been prudent pickups.

French - $9 remaining – that $110 on Jonathan Isaac hasn’t exactly panned out yet. The real star was Vanderbilt for $3 bucks!!!

Golden - $41 remaining – Brunson for $16 was very good while I’ve also had some good numbers from Caruso, Pat Bev, Allen, Otto, and Dosunmu. Golden’s FA plans are always dollar here, dollar there.

Idaho - $0 remaining – 33 Free Agent signings and the money is all gone. Idaho did his best to try and find the hot hand.

Juan - $9 remaining – some quality signings but the gem is Anfernee Simons for $1

Maui - $57 remaining – only 4 free agent signings (and no trades) all season reinforces the notion that he had one of the best JBL drafts ever

Norfolk - $23 remaining– 23 FA signings so far so the Doctor is trying. Cedi Osman $4 has certainly been serviceable.

Seoul - $15 remaining – Coby White $30 was a solid acquisition. Little $4 was useful until he got hurt. The good FA’s Seoul has used are always productive while on his bench

Vancouver - $51 remaining – many guys (Vincent, Morris, Mann) have been able to chip in while waiting for regulars to get back from injury

 

So there you have it, my discussion points on potential expansion and free agents.  Is adding one more team and eliminating 15-17 players from the Free Agent pool really that big a deal? I honestly don’t think so. Between weekly projections or the past 7/14/21 day stats on CBS alone can provide insight into who’s hot and maybe worthy of a pickup. Doug’s Stats is there for others and I’m sure many others have their favourite websites to help them with stats and numbers.

From the 4 options above I prefer Option 4 (just add another team with current rules) as it’s what we know and it’s just one more team. I really think there are impactful free agents on our wire right now – but that’s just my opinion. Failing that (which is already did 8-6) I really like option 3 (17 players per roster) as it just adds that roster spot at Auction which means 1 extra player to take a chance on at the draft. Having 5 bench players, regardless of injury status or not, would allow more week to week roster flexibility if there are any injuries. We’ve all had weeks this season where we have only 6-7 healthy bodies. With 5 bench spots (instead of 3 bench and 1 IR) – teams could fill those 5 spots with injured players if they wanted or have 5 healthy reserves for rotational options. The more I write about it, the more I like it.

 

Anyways, that’s all for now…maybe it’s worth another poll and discussion…

Week 15 - The Targets

In this week 15 post I'm going to look at some of the potential trade targets each JBL team has that could be leveraged to improve their teams for this year or next. With the NBA trade deadline on Feb 10th and the JBL trade deadline on Feb 20th - we are approaching decision time for many JBL squads. I would imagine a few top teams would potentially want to trade their star keepers if it helps them in their title push. Middling teams should want to ensure they finish as high as possible so they can protect their studs for next season. And those teams lower in the JBL standings want to try and climb the ladder but also ensure they have a stud keeper or two for next season. 

So, let's check out what each team might have to offer and whether the team will be a seller or buyer.

Arctic has a number of potential keepers. Kyrie. Jalen Green. Tyler Herro. Jalen Suggs. Kuzma. Love. So many potential options. The goal should be top 8 so he can keep 3 of those guys. As far as trade options, Arctic does have big names that could be sold off if needed. KAT and AD are the big ticket items that a contender may come calling for. The Arctic could be a seller at the deadline

Bangkok has some studly keeper options still with Edwards topping the list. Guys like Herb Jones, Terry Rozier, and Josh Hart are other potential options. The Kok should be buying but will he be willing to sell off Edwards for a bigger fish? 

Bellingham needs to try and get into the 9-12 range so he can keep 2 guys. Currently only Kawhi would be the likely keeper for next season. While there aren't many other obvious stud keepers would the Ham be willing to sell Sabonis or Allen if it meant landing another stud keeper?

Brussels, meet rock and hard place. Until we know what's happening with Ben Simmons we don't know whether they should be buying or selling. There are number of keeper options already on this roster and this squad looks solid to be a 5th to 8th place team at worst. Brussels can decide which way to go by Feb 10th when the 76ers decide what they are doing with Big Ben.

Cali has 2 major chips to play if they choose. Joker and Giannis would be massive additions to any contending team. But if they are moved does that risk Cali falling into the depths where they won't be able to keep any players? Timelord is a stud so you can't risk losing him. And maybe Jokic is worth keeping at $84? Decisions ahead for Cali. 

The Wack injury woes continue. We know Luka will be back in the Wack next season but who will be joining him. Will the Wack go all in or stay the course and hope for a late season title run and 4 keepers?

French is the silent assassin waiting in the wings. No one is talking about this team but he continues to lurk in the shadows. Does he try and move Klay for some help? French's Celtic core of Brown and Tatum will both be heading back into the auction this summer so it will be interesting to see who the next generation of French keepers will be.

Golden is hanging with Brussels in the rock and hard place crowd. Maybe good to enough to push for 4th and likely not bad enough to drop below 8th. So it's 3 keepers for Golden most likely. That said, with SGA, Garland, Giddey, Bridges, and Holmes as likely undervalued options for next season - Golden has too many keeper options and could try consolidating those into better keepers or try and land a big name. Worst case for Golden or Brussels or anyone in this range in the standings - is 5th place. 

Idaho has Zion, Trae and Jamal Murray. Currently, 3 keepers for 2 spots. Now, if Idaho can catch the slumping Seoul squad for 8th then he's off to the races. Idaho also has a number of big ticket items in Harden, Fox, and Booker if he wants to try and improve the squad and add another keeper. 

Juan de Fuca has been in 7th for a few weeks now. Another team that could push for top 4 but likely won't drop below 8th. They already have solid keeper options like Simons, Wagner and Portis so they can go either way here at the deadline.

Maui holds all the cards as the deadline approaches. The lead is hovering around 100 points (or more) on most nights and Maui has the luxury of being in reaction mode. If French or Bangkok upgrade - Maui might have to do the same. For Maui, that would likely be pretty easy as if they made LaMelo or Mobley available I would imagine they would get a kings ransom for either one of those guys. Don't forget Desmond Bane as another keeper option that could be sold for more assets if needed. 

Norfolk needs to get out of the basement or else it's not even worth discussing keeper options on this roster. That said, I don't see any super bargains for this lot if they do make it to 13th. The challenge would be to improve the squad to get out of the basement while also acquiring a stud keeper. Very difficult to do.

Seoul feels like the 8th place team this season. A couple teams could push him for that spot but so far he's clinging to #8. With Morant and Barnes and maybe GTJ as keepers they would be in good shape for next season already. If they wanted to upgrade or add another stud keeper they have the assets with Siakam, Jimmy Buckets, and Zach Lavine to use as bait.

Vancouver made a late season charge last year to get into 8th and get his 3 keepers. Can they do that this season? Maybe. Cade Cunningham is the headline keeper here and should be the franchise cornerstone. Or do they sell him to try and improve the squad and get into the top 8? But if they did that - who are the 3 keepers? Sometimes it's better to have the 1 stud keeper than 3 average ones.

There you have it. A quick look around the JBL with who could do what as the JBL trade deadline is just 3 weeks away. 

Week 14 - Who can win it...

 In this late week 14 Chronicles edition I thought I would take a moment to look at just which JBL teams can still be title contenders. And yes, it's based on projections and and what I think is going to happen. Despite views to the contrary, I do not control injuries or covid so these could be way off base in a week or two. And of course, I don't know if any of these teams are going to make any earth shattering trades to overhaul their rosters - so I've got to go with what I see as of today.

First, let's talk about those teams that aren't going to win the title. I'm going to draw the line, conservatively, at 8th and lower. We're over halfway home and if you're sitting in the sub-700 point range, I just don't see any sort of improvement or even massive trade that would push any of these teams over another 7-8 teams to win the title.

So that leaves 6 teams then I'm saying still have a chance. But let's face it, 3 of those teams are going to need some major luck and likely additional moves.

Juan de Fuca is in 7th and almost 400 points out of 1st place. They are 13th in ATO and 10th in FG% and Steals. That's probably too many flaws to make up at this stage of the game. That said, Juan is well positioned for 3 keepers for next season with Wagner, Simons, and Portis as almost locks as well as Thomas the Tank Bryant's potential if the Wizards ever clear up their Center rotation. 

Brussels was in 6th when I wrote this and his season has always hinged on the return of Ben Simmons. While it's still possible our defending champ would get less than 40 games from him and I'm thinking it might be too little too late. Brussels is 11th in scoring and 9th in 3PT% and we know Simmons won't be helping in the 3PT category. The other challenge will be the lack of FA dollars. The Brussels squad would have to rely on trades as Timmy has $0 FA dollars left to spend. 

Chilliwack is in 5th and has been burned by injuries as of late. All of the goods acquired in the Seoul trade arrived damaged and now there is real concern over Brogdon's achilles. That said, I do see room for 100+ additional points across multiple categories. So that gets the Wack into the 1030 range or so. Can they go higher? Maybe? But he needs some healthy bodies real soon. I do give Wack the edge on finishing top 4 because of his room for growth in multiple areas. 

Golden is currently in 4th but it feels like this is about the maximum points for this squad. 13th in 3PT% and 12th in blocks with little to no room for growth probably means the excitement for me will be chasing 4th and the 4 keepers that come with that finishing spot but likely finishing in the worst spot - 5th - and only getting 3 keepers and just 5 ping pong balls. 

So, that said, the realistic contenders are French, Bangkok and Maui. To no one's surprise.

French struggles with 3PT% but maybe the return of Klay can help out there. I see lots of room for French to gain points and it looks like they could get to the 1150 range if all goes well. They just need a good run of health as they sit mid-pack in man games for the season. You never count out 4 time champs. And remember, for 7 straight years, French has finished 1st or 2nd - so don't rule out that streak being extended.

Bangkok vs Maui. It's been that way for several weeks now. Which means, if that was the case, we will have another NEW JBL champion this season. Both franchises have been around forever (Maui 31 seasons and Bangkok 26 seasons). Bangkok does everything really well except for scoring (7th) and blocks (11th). That said, they have the players to go up in both categories. I think Kok can get into that 1150 range as well with this group. There is some room for growth in a couple categories. Bangkok needs Mitchell back from his concussion and Ayton to stay healthy and a continued good run for his very good role players (Strus, Jones, Hartenstein, Hart, O'Neale). Can they do it? Yes, they could. Also, Kok has the Anthony Edwards chip to play if he really wants to go all in.

Maui has been in 1st place since week 2. They've suffered from injuries and covid and yet they continue to shine. This is tough stretch for the Ribs with Lonzo out for 6-8 weeks, Lowry is out, Bane is in protocols and Draymond is still sidelined. I think Maui peaks at 1287 potentially. I also think, if things don't go well, we could see Maui in the 1160's range.  What Maui has done so far has been nothing short of remarkable. What a draft. Their worst category is FG% and he's 7th!!! And, like the Kok, Maui has 3 keeper chips to play if he wants to bolster the squad. I can only imagine the haul of players LaMelo or Mobley would get him. Or, to a lesser extent, Desmond Bane has been spectacular this season and is certainly worth a look as a keeper. 

So there you have it. A 3 horse race is on. Does anyone else try to make a move to bolster their chances? Do the big 3 sell off their keepers to try and improve their chances? I'm looking forward to watching the race over the last half of the season. 

Finally, remember the JBL keeper trade deadline is NBA All Star Sunday (February 20th) at midnight PST. If you want to keep/protect someone for next season they must be on your roster by this date. Anyone who was drafted at Auction is eligible for protection (so guys like Kawhi and Murray and others can be protected). And any Free Agent signed during the course of the season fall under Section 4.7 of the constitution...

4.7 All free agents signed during the course of the JBL/NBA season must play a minimum of 20 regular season NBA games in order to be eligible for protection the following year (unless the player was drafted at Auction. If a player was drafted at auction he is eligible to be protected)

So - make sure you are loaded up with potential keepers for next season too. 

Enjoy the title race!!!

Week 13 - Golden self reflection

Changing up the week 13 vibe a bit. Moving away from a global JBL look and just focusing in on my Showers squad – that I love – but also hate. A little self reflection this week in Golden.

What went wrong in Golden? While the season is only 50% over, this Golden team has some fatal flaws that cannot be rectified at this point in the season. Trying to recover from horrible performances in both 3PT% and BLKS is virtually impossible at this stage of the season.

So, I wanted to dive into the big issues – and let these serve as reminders for other JBL teams heading into next year’s auction. Diversification and luck.

And I will start by saying that this Golden team actually isn’t that bad. At the time I’m writing this, 1^st in scoring in the JBL.  3^rd in ATO and top 6 in 3 other categories. The issues – 12^th in blocks and 13^th in 3PT%.

So, for starters, the big men in Golden have all been disappointments.

Nurkic has been hot and cold all year. He’s averaging 13 and 10 which is decent but pre-season projections had him blocking at least 1 shot per game. Instead, he’s at 0.5 blocks/game – which is 20 blocks in 38 games. And hey, 20 blocks is OK, but here’s a list of some other players and their block totals.

Facu Campazzo – who we all know is likely under 6 feet tall – he has 19 blocks.

Mike Muscala – a big white guy who barely plays – he has 22 blocks.

De’Anthony Melton has 22 blocks

Devin Vassell, Patrick Beverley and Drew Eubanks all have more blocks thank Nurk.

The point is, Nurk is 7 feet tall and known as the Bosnian Beast.  The sad part is that there are roughly 90 NBA players, most of whom are shorter than Nurk and don’t have nearly as intimidating a nickname – all have more blocks than him. I’ve had Nurk for 3 seasons now and he’s going back to Auction next season. I love the guy because he’s a Blazer (for now) but I can’t see him being a draft day target in the future.

Then there’s Richaun Holmes. He’s coming off a season where he averaged 14 and 8 with 1.6 blocks per game. This year, he’s only averaging 1 block per game and he’s missed a lot of games. Another case where I was expecting more blocks and I’m just not getting them.

And finally, there’s Beef Stew, Isaiah Stewart. Yes, he’s averaging 1.3 blocks per game but that’s the same as he averaged last year. I was expecting the breakout year and more minutes for him and he simply hasn’t progressed in year 2.

So, my 3 Centers have all underachieved. Or at least they haven’t been as good as projections or expectations. Couple that with my duplication of resources (Hayward, Middleton, and Ingram) that all don’t block (or steal much) and I was doomed in the blocks category. And, as we all know, it’s not like you can find an impact shot-blocker on the waiver wire these days. Instead of having 3 small forwards that all do the same things – I should have gone after another shot-blocking big man.

My other glaring weakness is 3PT% and again, coming out of the auction, I thought my team would be quite strong in this category. Boy, was I wrong.

Look at the difference a year can make with some of these guys…

Miles Bridges shot 40% from downtown last year – this year he is just 32% on way more attempts. Double doozy.

SGA shot 42% last year and this year he’s an atrocious 28%. Yes, that’s a 14% drop! Fourteen percent!!!

While he only played 10 games in Golden, Lillard did his best to sabotage the 3PT% category shooting just 24% on almost 10 attempts per game.

Beverley has been 26% from downtown in his 16 Golden games.

And then you have those couple guys on the roster that take the odd 3 pointer here and there– which in turn can add up to something really bad. Stewart and Nurkic are a combined 10/57 from deep (17%). So you see the odd 0/1 here and there and before you know it - your 3PT% is destroyed. 

Oh plus, you can add in the rookie sensation Giddey’s 29% from downtown and this team is doomed from deep.

While teams can still be successful in this category with a couple bad 3PT shooters (ie. Chilliwack is 3^rd in 3PT% and they have Westbrook jacking at 28%) – you can’t have three quarters of your roster all shooting career lows from deep.  And it’s not like I can say – well, I’ll just trade away those shitty shooters – ummmm, that’s the bulk of the squad. HAHA.

Anyways, Golden is still looking like a 5^th to 8^th place finisher this season. And who knows, maybe we can push for a top 4 finish with some luck. That doesn’t appear to be in the cards – but who knows - stranger things have happened.

That's it for this week. My self reflection is over and Golden will carry on the good fight. Maybe the boys can get hot and we can make some noise and play spoiler down the stretch here.  Bye for another week.