Post Christmas Hangover

Well, the 2010 portion of the JBL season is almost here. We are just finishing up week 9 and things are really starting to tighten up in the JBL standings. We have 2 distinct tiers now. A top 7 teams and a bottom 5 teams. 700 points appears to be the cut-off for contenders at the moment. That certainly doesn't mean that the current bottom 5 teams don't have a shot at the JBL title, but it does mean that they are going to have to start thinking about how they are going to change their teams in order to start the climb in the JBL standings.

With slim-pickins being available on the FA wire the only way you can change your teams fortunes is to make a trade. I have scanned the rosters and see plenty of potential trading partners out there. For example, Boston is 1st in ATO and last in rebounds. Juan de Fuca is last in ATO and 1st in rebounds. Maybe they should figure something out?

Another key factor that is going to start to come into play in the coming weeks is the 'keeper deadline'. This is the NBA's All-Star break weekend and the deadline is the Sunday of that week. It's an easy date to remember this year but a horrible one in JBL terms. Our keeper trade deadline is February 14th! Valentine's Day. So if you want to protect a player for next season he must be on your roster by midnight PST on Feb 14th. How on earth will we be having the big trade-fest when we will be taking our wives or girlfriends or left palms out for a special evening? This could be a horrible year for last minute blockbusters in the JBL. But I have faith in this crew...faith that there will be trades on Sunday night at the deadline and faith that a could see a subpoena to be a witness at divorce court in the following weeks.

The most likely scenario around the trade deadline will be the top 7 teams pawning off their super keepers for studs from the bottom 5 teams (assuming a bottom 5 teams doesn't make the climb into contender status).

I had a quick look to see what 'chips' the top teams had to play and what 'studs' the bottom teams had to use as leverage.

Golden - he will pawn Jennings for sure...what could he bring in return? What about a young gunner like Eric Gordon? If only he played up to his potential.

French Lick - no shortage of options here...how about Jonny Flynn? But does his value drop because of the potential arrival of Rubio? What about Blake Griffin? How will he be playing by then? Is $37 bucks a worthy keeper value? And how about Dejuan Blair?

Bangkok - This team actually has the biggest decisions to make because they have the most studs to deal with. Rick has no shortage of potential keepers and should be cashing in some of them to make a run for his 1st ever JBL title. He has Kaman, Tykere, Stephen Curry, Westbrook, and David Lee. He has to consider dealing one, two, or a couple of them if it can improve your chances of winning the elusive JBL title.

Arctic - He has Steve Nash and Kevin Love to use as bait. Both appear to be under-valued for what they bring to the table.

Juan de Fuca - Again, some great keepers here in Durant, Lopez, Speights, and Camby. He has to address his ATO and 3PT% at some point if he is going to make a run.

Chilliwack - Benny can offer up Marc Gasol, Andrea Bargnani, Terrence Williams or others as bait. If Benny is still in the hunt you can bet your nuggets that Benny will do what it takes to take his shot at the title.

Seoul - Philly Woo has made it clear that he is trying to position himself to keep up with Golden (who he thinks has the best team). Does he have what it takes? Is the Seoul team deep enough? He will have the Nene card to play when it comes time to make a move. He may be in 7th but the defending champ (and 3-time champion) has what it takes to make the right deal - despite being called a snake-oil salesman by Brussels.

On that note, what is a snake-oil salesman? The definition is below...

A product that has been proven to not live up to the vendor's marketing hype. The term comes from the 1800s in which elixirs and potions of all kinds, even ones that supposedly included the oils from snakes, were sold as a cure for everything that ailed a person.

So there...the key message that the product may not live up to the vendor's marketing hype. I guess if Philly Woo was trying to sell that Corey Brewer is gonna average 20ppg for the season...then yes, let the snake-oil flow.

But come to think of it...isn't Idaho the king of snake-oil then???

OK, back to my keeper deadline rant...

The top teams have the 'keepers' to get the bottom teams interested...so which studs do the bottom 5 teams have top pony up??

Belgrade - Marko's in a bit of pickle because his best chips to offer actually appear to be pretty good keepers in their own right. Carmelo $40, Boozer $36, and Channing Frye $1 could all be pretty valuable to a contending team. But can he get in "better" and cheaper keepers? Time will tell...

Yuma - Pat has Jefferson, Iguodala, Mo Williams, and Michael Redd all waiting to be moved to a contender.

Brussels - Tim has maybe the biggest trading chip of them all in Chris Paul. If the Brussels squad doesn't move up in the standings soon Timbo has to think about cashing in this asset. You can't tell me that teams struggling in 3PT% and ATO like Golden (7th and 10th), Juan de Fuca (9th and 12th), Seoul (8th and 8th) and Bangkok (11th and 6th) wouldn't like to get their hands on this guy. And what about Kevin Martin??? Even Antawn Jamison could be a movable asset (although he's probably a good keeper at his current salary as well).

Idaho - how long before Tuna throws in the towel? Despite Bangkok's 'scoreboard' post this morning that Idaho has no talent, I do believe there are some players of value on this team (just not that many). The 2 big names are Amare and Monta - both could help out in Seoul for example - a team that is suddenly lacking scorers. Even guys like Parker, J-Rich, and Chris Duhon have value but will Idaho be willing to part with them?? And if Tuna thinks that Duhon for Brandon Jennings is going to happen - he's dreaming.

Boston - 2 big chips to play here as well...Dirk and Wade. What super-keeper could they bring back?

Of course, in all of this, we have to remember that the team that finishes 12th will not be able to protect anyone so they need to make sure that when they sell off their assets that they don't destine themselves for 12th. At the moment, Trevor has some work to do to make the climb out of the basement.

Well, that's all for now...I think next post I'll chat a little bit about how terrible the 3PT%'s are this season. There are only 3 current JBL teams shooting over 36%. Unreal. In 2008/09 there were 9 teams above 36%!!!!