March(ing) On...

Well, week 19 is almost finished and the JBL standings couldn't be much tighter. Remember the race last season at this time? The Seoul Brothers had a 400 point lead and there were 4 other teams battling for the remaining 3 money spots. This year? 7 teams still fighting for the JBL title. Four of those seven teams have won the top prize while the other 3 teams would be popping their JBL cherry with the title.

We saw one of those classic JBL trades the other day when Brussels moved Elton Brand to Bangkok for Al Thornton. From Tim's post on the Live Scoreboard it appears he offered this deal weeks ago (when Brand was in the shitter and Little Al was getting hot as a Wizard). Well, Timbo left this trade up for weeks and ultimately Bangkok decided to jump on it. Lesson to be learned? Either the CBS website should allow us to set expiry times on our trade offers (ie. if you don't get an accept or reject within 48 hours the offer is automatically withdrawn) or you should always check what offers you have out there.

Thought I would have quick look at each of the contending teams and where they could move up in the standings. I won't look at where they could fall in the standings or apply my JBL matrix to predict the final standings...I'll save that for a later date. And again, I'm looking at categories where the teams are really close to moving up in during the next 1-2 weeks.

Currently in 7th place - Arctic Circle Jerks - 753 points. He could possibly move up 13 or 26 in 3PT% but the trend hasn't been there to support such a move, but it's possible. Scoring - I don't think he's catching Juan. ATO - he could catch Benny, but I doubt it. Steals - I think he will remain 11th. Blocks - he should catch Idaho and gain 13 points. But I think that's it there. Rebounds - there is some potential to maybe catch French and Golden and that would be a big 30 points in this favor. FG% - he could catch Juan and Golden for an additional 26 points. So, if all went perfect in the Arctic world there could be around +100 points for him to gain and that would move him up to the 850's.

Currently in 6th place - Bangkok Fighters - 760 points. 3PT% - he could move up 13 points by passing Seoul. I guess he could also catch Juan and Yuma but the guys he has certainly doesn't suggest this will happen. Scoring - he could catch Golden for a big +20 points. The problem is that Golden has been scoring right with Bangkok for the last 2 weeks and Golden has been without Chris Bosh. So, this +20 is possible but it's not a guarantee. ATO - Bangkok is right on the tail of the French and could pass him for +13. Steals - Bangkok should pass Golden and Juan for +26 points.Longer term he could catch Yuma and Seoul but lets stick with the quick wins for now. Blocks - I think Bangkok will remain where he is for now. Rebounds - no upward movement coming. FG% - Bangkok is now .5 behind Seoul and doesn't appear to have any immediate upward movement in this category. So, with the short term view and with everything going right that makes +72 points for this squad which gets him into the 830's. Of course, if he increases his steals there could be another 26 points there (at least).

Currently in 5th place - French Lick Celtics @ 798 points. 3PT% - +13 points if he can pass the Pancakes. Scoring - Idaho and Yuma are only about 100 points ahead in this category and if French can get hot that would be a big +40 points. ATO - for now, it appears there is no quick upward movement. Steals - only 22 steals back of the Wack but the way Benny has been stealing this could be hard to catch. No immediate upward movement. Blocks - no upward movement at this time. Rebounds - French is right on Golden's tail so its possible for a +15 here. FG% - slowing moving up but nothing immediate. With some great games there is potential for +68 points here in the short term. The key for French is his scoring as he could have the most room for improvement in this category.

Currently in 4th place - Seoul Brothers @ 819 points. 3PT% - nothing immediate at this time. Scoring - just under 200 pts behind the Arctic but that won't happen in 1-2 weeks (I don't think). ATO - 3 teams ahead of him by .033 and that would be +39 points. But I'm not sure that's do-able right now with the team Woo is putting out there. Steals - only 10 behind Belgrade so it's possible for a +13 here. Blocks - you are the king of blocks by a mile so no points to gain here. In fact, what is the record for most blocks ever in a JBL season? Rebounds - closing in on Juan de Fuca and now less than 100 boards behind. So, it's possible and that would be a big +15 points. FG% - getting really close to catching Arctic and Juan who are just 0.1% ahead and Golden is only 0.3% ahead. So, in the short term, it could be a +26 points if he catches the 2 teams just in front of him. So, quick wins could produce +54 points in the next couple of weeks and that would get the Seoul squad up to the mid 870's.

Currently in 3rd place - Juan de Fuca Yo Mamas @ 835 points. 3PT% - will need to get hot to catch Golden who is 0.4% in front of him. Trends would say this isn't happening right away. Scoring - the Juan team appears stuck in 3rd in this category. ATO - appears Juan will remain 12th for now but a return of Chris Paul in the next couple of weeks could change things in this category. So, for now, I will say no immediate gains. Steals - some work to do to catch Yuma and Seoul. A possible 26 points for sure, but I'm not sure it will happen. Blocks - just 2 behind the Wack so there is +13 there. Rebounds - Juan has been 1st place in this category all season. No more points to gain. FG% - just 0.2 behind Golden so there is a definite chance to gain +13 points by shooting the ball well. In the short term, maybe 13-26 points could be gained getting him into the 850 point range. The good news - in the long term the return of a healthy Chris Paul could help gain him another 26 points in steals and maybe +13 in ATO. The bad news - he is still being crippled by the injury bug and has missed games from Monta Ellis, Marcus Camby, Chris Paul, and now Tony Parker appears to be done for 4-6 weeks. Ugh.

Currently in 2nd place - Chilliwack Offs @ 841 points. 3PT% - just 0.2% behind the Muscles so that could be a +13 points. Scoring - only 33 points behind the Seoul Brothers so that could be a monsterous +20 points here. ATO - 1st place already. Steals - 1st place already. Hmmm, getting the sense this Wack team is a real contender. Blocks - 2nd place and no way he's catching Seoul who is 50 blocks ahead of him. Rebounds - 70 rebounds behind the Arctic. For now, let's assume he doesn't get there in the short term. FG% - finally a flaw for this team. However, there is +13 available by passing Yuma. So, there is 46 points that could easily be gained in the next week even. That would get the Offs to 887 total points. Holy Dinah.

Currently in 1st place - Golden Showers @ 882 points. 3PT% - just 0.2% behind the Offs. However, it's been a long time since the Showers have gone above 35.0% from downtown so I just don't think this will happen. Scoring - already in 1st place. ATO - just 0.10 behind Idaho and Yuma. Is it possible, maybe, but I think Idaho is built more for ATO than Golden and therefore I'm not sure the Showers catch either team. However, it's possible for a +13 or +26 in this category. Steals - just 2 steals back of Juan de Fuca so that could be a +13. Blocks - just 12 and 14 blocks behind Juan and Wack but I don't think it will happen. For now, I'm saying no upward movement. Rebounds - not going anywhere. FG% - already in 1st place. I think the Showers team is almost maxed out with points but if the stars aligned I guess I could see maybe +26 points upward movement. 

There really isn't much upward movement left for the Showers squad. I could argue some upward moves but those are ultimately negated by some downward moved in other categories (ie. I could gain 13 points by passing Juan in steals but I will lose 13 points because Bangkok will pass me - net result - 0 points gained). Of course, this could be said for all of the teams above. They will gain some points in some categories and they could lose some points in the others. It's almost impossible to tell who will win it at this time - it's just too early to tell. Plus, with all the injuries yet to happen (ie. Tony Parker) the Fantasy landscapes will still change. Plus, the ultimate wrench in the equation is the fact that teams will start to rest their stars down the stretch once a playoff spot has been clinched. How many minutes/games will Tim Duncan play down the stretch? What if the Cavaliers clinch the top record and home court throughout the playoffs? How much rest will Mike Brown give to Lebron? And for the teams out of it - will they start to sit their star players? Will New Orleans keep playing Chris Paul if they are eliminated from the playoff race? All things to consider down the stretch.

Our JBL trade deadline is fast approaching. Just 2 weeks away. After that, you'll have to rely on Free Agents only. That being said, 2 teams have $0 Free Agent bucks left and 5 others have under $10 bucks available to use.

Here we go...the stretch run begins when we get to Week 20...and that's tomorrow boys. The race is on. Next time I have a chance, I'll have a look at those 4 teams at the bottom of the pile fighting to avoid the basement. I'll tell you who I think will be our 12th place team.