Sunday, August 8, 2010

The Summer Doldrums...

Well, the JBL off season trading has been anything but interesting. Not a single trade. Plenty of offers, but nothing that was seemingly close to being a deal. Again, I have made offers and I have received plenty of offers - but nothing is happening (for now).

I approached Yuma. Let's just say he's not moving David Lee for anything I have.
I approached Seoul. Bogut and Nene aren't moving apparently.
Bangkok and I have gone back and forth - but neither of us want to part with certain pieces.
Chilliwack and I discussed a few options early on but it never materialized.
Arctic and I discussed Kevin Love - but nothing materialized.

So, where does that leave the Golden Showers?? Well, I will have likely the maximum 4 keepers (barring summer injuries). Darren Collison appears to be the odd man out as long as Chris Paul remains in New Orleans. I don't think $15 bucks is a good price for Chris Paul's backup. Sure, Collison will likely get 20-25 minutes per game easy - but I know he can be had for less.

So...let's discuss my 4 keepers...

Derrick Rose $29 (year 3) - Rose is the leader of the new look Chicago Bulls. Rose, in his 2nd NBA season, averaged 20ppg and 6ast per game last season. Not too shabby at all. What would he be worth if he was in the auction?? I'm guessing in the $35-$40 dollar range based on where he fits in with the other top flight PG's. You look at guys like Billups and Nash who both went in the $30's last season and Rose would probably fit in right around there. He does have a couple of things to work on this summer - one of them is improving his 3PT shot. Rose made only 16 3-pointers all last season. However, apparently the Bulls wanted him to work on his range this summer. Based on this video, he appears he has followed their direction.

http://www.docksquadsports.com/2010/08/derrick-roses-new-jump-shot.html

The other thing that he could do better is get some steals. He only had 57 in 78 games last year. Well, with new defensive minded coach Tom Thibodeau on board - I'm betting he improves on this number. And finally, with secondary weapons like Boozer, Deng, and Korver hopefully knocking down open shots, Rose's assists could see a bump into the 8/game range.

Josh Smith $48 (year 2) - Josh is one of those players who is almost at his peak value. I would bet that in the auction this year he would go in the $55 dollar range. So keeping him at this price is still a slight bargain. Besides, what Josh brings to the table (especially since he stopped shooting 3's) is a true 6 category player. Yes, there are better Fantasy Stars out there but Josh is one of the best as well. For argument's sake, let's compare Josh Smith and Kevin Durant. Now, Timmy, before you go shaking your head thinking of how I am going to compare these 2 guys...here me out...I am in no way suggesting that Josh is more valuable than KD. Durant is the new king of Fantasy. Now, that being said, Josh has some positives as well...let's compare numbers.

POINTS - OK, no comparison here. KD averaged over 30PPG last year. No one is in his league here. Now, that being said, Josh averaged 15.7 PPG last year and if every player on your JBL team averaged that number - you'd have one of the best scoring teams in the league. Josh certainly doesn't hurt your Fantasy team in scoring.

REBOUNDS - Durant had 7.6 and Josh had 8.7 rebounds per game last year. Both help your team with those numbers. Josh just had a few more boards.

FG% - Durant was 47.6% and Josh was 50.5%. Yes, KD took almost 700 more shots than Josh - but bottom line is that both guys help your team in this category.

3PT% - Josh doesn't shoot the 3's anymore (thank God). A year ago, this was Josh's biggest drawback because he took way too many 3's. Hopefully, new coach Larry Drew will remind Josh to not attempt any more. Durant shot 36.5% from downtown. Again, a solid number from the #1 Fantasy player.

ATO - This is one area where KD needs to improve. He had 231 assists and 271 turnovers. He's a negative player in this category. I guess when you average 30PPG and 7REB we won't hold this against him. This category has actually become a strength for Josh over the last couple of years. He had 343 assists and 198 TO's last season. That equates to 1.732 ATO. Pretty damn good for a power forward.

STLS - Durant had 112 and Josh had 130. Both exceptional numbers from these players. Again, slight edge to Josh.

BLKS - Durant had 84 and Josh had 173 blocks last season. Just like KD doubled Josh in scoring - Josh doubles KD in blocks. That being said, KD's total is very, very good. And, like KD is one of the premier scorers in the league - Josh is a premier shot blocker!

Again, I'm not arguing that Smith is a better Fantasy player than Kevin Durant. He's not. (Even though he trumps KD in 5 categories straight up). I'm arguing that Josh Smith is worth every bit of his $48 dollar salary. Would I rather have KD for $43 bucks - absolutely. Am I happy for have Josh Smith for $48 bucks - absolutely.

Luol Deng $17 (year 2) - I am big Luol Deng fan. Maybe it's because he's one of the blackest men in the league (maybe the blackest man since Manute Bol?). There is just something about the way he plays - I love it. He's a typical Golden player that does it all and is a stat stuffer. He was almost a 7 category player last season.

Check out the numbers...

PPG - 17.6 (solid)
REB - 7.6 (good)
ATO - 1.067 (could be better)
FG% - 46.6% (could be a bit better)
3PT% - 38.6% (nice)
STL - 66 steals in 70 games (just below the required 1 per game)
BLK - 62 blocks in 70 games (so close again)

Check out the action up close of Deng taking it to the hoop....

Deng isn't a star (although he gets paid like one)...but he's a nice guy to have on your Fantasy team. I don't think I'm saving a huge amount of money by keeping him at $17 bucks. I think he would likely top out around $20 bucks (depending on when he came up in the auction). But, something can be said for keeping players that you like watching - which is another reason why I am keeping Luol.

Aaron Brooks $16 (year 2) - Brooks is coming off of a MIP season where he averaged almost 20ppg and 5ast per game. Yes, he put up these numbers with Yao Ming out of commission. Yao is scheduled to be back this season and I can argue both ways as to how his presence will affect Brooks' numbers. I think his scoring will likely drop a bit this season...but his assists should rise as he lobs into the big man. Brooks made the most 3-pointers in the Association last season and made them at almost a 40% clip. With Yao back, could Brooks actually be open for more 3's?? Sure, Brooks could improve his FG% (43%) and his steals (69 in 82 games) but he's only $16 bucks.

So, with those 4 players on the Golden roster there will only be $15o bucks left for 11 players. Safe to say its unlikely that Golden will be going after a D-Wade or Lebron type player. Instead, I would think it will be another typical Golden draft - where balance and depth are the key issues addressed. But the best part - we'll be in Vegas!!

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