Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Comeback Hopes Dashed...

Well, with today's news that Eric Gordon is going to be out of action for 3-4 weeks, this essentially means that any chance of the Golden squad moving up in the standings is essentially dead. Losing the #8 scorer in the NBA and having to replace him with a guy like Rudy Fernandez is devastating news. The Golden squad is currently 200 points out of 5th place and will surely drop in PTS now that I lose EG's 24ppg.

The news essentially puts an end to a miserable season that saw the Showers open the year with a 190 point week. Over the next 13 weeks the Showers have risen to a high of 6th place and on one night I cracked the 800 point barrier. Since then, I've battled injuries, poor roster management, and made some questionable trades that ultimately didn't pan out.

So, what's next for the Showers squad?? Well, it's time to evaluate what talent I have that could be protected for next season. If I can manage to hold on to a 6th to 8th place in the standings this would allow me to protect 3 players for next season. So, who are the candidates?

Eric Gordon for $28 bucks. Despite his big injury that killed my 10/11 hopes, I am high on EG. He's the #8 scorer in the NBA. Look at the other names in the top 10 in NBA scoring and then look at their JBL salaries. Scorers typically do not come cheap. And relatively speaking, EG is a bargain. He scores, shoots a decent FG% for a SG, can shoot the 3 (despite his poor start to the season - check out his last 20 games), he has decent ATO (1.600 range) and he gets over 1 steal per game. He's essentially a 5 category fantasy player and he's only going to get better with Blake Griffin along side of him. So, he's on my keeper radar for sure.

Carlos Boozer for $35 bucks. Another injury prone player that I am fond of. He's averaging 20 and 10 on the nose so far this season while shooting a very impressive 55%. He doesn't help in many other categories but it's very difficult to find a comparison to Boozer in the 20/10 range with that kind of FG%. I think a healthy Boozer would have gone for $40-$45 in the Auction this year and would likely find himself in that range again next season. So, if that's the case, Boozer is a slight bargain at $35 dollars.

LaMarcus Aldridge for $40 bucks. Firstly, remember, I am a big Blazers fan. Secondly, I have had LA on my team for 3 of his 4 NBA seasons. In his rookie year, Bangkok drafted LA for $33 bucks. Then I grabbed him for $37. Then $40. And this past season for $35. So, his auction price has been very steady over the years. What changed this season in PDX was the injury to Brandon Roy. Since Roy went down, LA has stepped up his game big time and is now being talked about for the All-Star game. Is LA a big bargain at $40 bucks? Probably not. However, he is becoming very consistent as the leader of the Blazers. Just look at his numbers this season. 21ppg, 9reb, 48% FG, 49 steals and 54 blocks in 46 games so far. He's a 5 category player and could challenge the elusive 100/100 club for steals and blocks. That is a pretty exclusive club (hello Josh Smith). Anyways, LA is a possible keeper in my books.

Dorell Wright for $15 bucks. This guy wasn't even drafted on Auction night this year. He should have been, but wasn't. Bangkok grabbed him off the waiver wire and rode his hot streak. And then his hot streak never ended and I had to have him. I gave up a lot to get this guy and he hasn't disappointed. He's a leading contender for MIP and he's averaging 16ppg and 6reb per game. He shoots over 40% from downtown. His ATO is 1.743. He has 63 steals and 36 blocks in 44 games. His only weakness is a 43% FG%. Dorell is a 6 category fantasy player and he's only 15 bucks. Could this season be a fluke? Absolutely it could. Is it worth the $15 bucks to keep him and find out if he can do it again next season - you bet it is. Here are some other notable draftees from the auction that went in the $15 dollar range - Robin Lopez, Jarrett Jack, Corey Brewer, and Linas Kleiza. So, some guys in this price range could be complete busts. You just don't know. The other thing that Dorell has going for him is that he plays for the Warriors. A team that, despite canning Don Nelson, still plays a run and gun style and still plays their starters way too many minutes. I think Dorell will be back in Golden next season.

Those are the 4 main contenders for the possible 3 keeper spots right now. There could be some others on the current Golden roster that could be considered.

Kendrick Perkins for $7. He needs to play 20 games to be eligible because he was a FA signed during the season but that looks to be a safe bet since he returned from ACL surgery tonight. Perk is a big guy on an aging Celtics team. He can be a 10 and 6 guy with some blocks and would be a nice role player piece on any JBL fantasy team.

Roddy Beaubois for $6 bucks. I drafted the kid in Vegas and he's been on the roster ever since. During the pre-season I fell for the dude when I heard Mark Cuban and Dirty Dirk talk about Roddy and his game. I had to have him. And I'm still waiting for him. He's lightning fast and is primed to take over for an aging Jason Kidd. Is he a sure thing? Far from it. He's a huge question mark. His upside is HUGE while his downside is that he could be released. Strange I know, but that's how big of a swing this kid could be. He could be an absolute steal for $6 bucks as a keeper or I could see myself flat out dropping the kid if he can't handle the pressure.

There isn't much else on the Golden roster that is worth consideration in terms of keepers. I do have some talent that could potentially land me another potential keeper or two. Lamar Odom and Monta Ellis would be the big names I could offer while an under-rated guy like Luke Ridnour and his 3.000+ ATO could help a number of JBL teams in search of ATO.

So, who are some guys that I could target as potential keepers in Golden?
  • Serge Ibaka $4 - I still love this kid's potential. Yes, I traded him away but that was when I still had dreams of climbing the JBL ladder. Now, I'd take him back in a heartbeat.
  • Luis Scola $18 - He's underrated in my books. 19 and 8 with some steals and some blocks while shooting 50% and positive ATO. He can play for Golden any day.
  • Stephen Curry $15. One more keeper year left. The #2 keeper in my books is very good value for the price. Bangkok's asking price likely to be very steep.
  • Rudy Gay $24 - I thought he would regress once he got his big contract. Boy, was I wrong. He's a 6 category player in a big way!
  • Greg Monroe $2 - I drafted him and saw the potential - I just couldn't wait for him to develop. In his last 10 games he's averaged 11ppg and 9reb with 19 steals. The aging Pistons will have to play him sooner or later.
  • Wilson Chandler $12 - 17ppg and 6reb with over 60 blocks so far this season. He plays in an uptempo NY system that is fantasy friendly. The concern is that he could be part of a rebuilding project in Denver when it's all said and done.
  • Paul Pierce $22 - the leader of the aging Celtics is having an awesome year. Sure, he's not going to score 30 on many nights anymore but he's turned into an all around fantasy player. He is almost a 7 category player.
  • Kevin Martin $17 - again, scoring is at a premium in the JBL and this guy puts up 23ppg for just $17 bucks currently. Even at $22 he's a bargain because of the volume of points he scores. His BIG negative is that he's injury prone and if he makes it through 10/11 without an injury what are the chances he could do it 2 years in a row? Major health risk here.
  • Joakim Noah $22 - Benny loves him. And really, why wouldn't you love him? He's got crazy hair, shoots one of the weirdest looking shots ever, and has a tendex of 22. Stud.
  • DeAndre Jordan $1 - the man who made Kaman expendable. DJ has really developed alongside Blake and EG. He's extremely athletic and is a shot blocking fiend. But Brussels has him locked in and I think it would be very difficult to pry him away.
  • Kevin Love $17 - I'll put his name here - but why would Belgrade trade him? He would be crazy to do that.
  • Michael Beasley $12 - I'm not a fan of his character but his game has improved big time this season. He's a 20 and 6 guy with good %'s. Again, with the premium placed on Scoring in the JBL he's an asset to any JBL team.

There you have it...the Golden summary and a look at some keepers I will look at over the coming weeks. Those of you who read the Chronicles will know who I'm interested in and know who I am likely to move (or not move). The top 5 JBL teams will probably have some interest in guys like Monta, Odom and Ridnour and I think using those 3 guys I may be able to land one (or two) more potential keepers to the Golden stable. We'll see how it plays out over the coming weeks.

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