What was great about the lunch was that I really didn't even have to say a word to really enjoy myself. The Phil and Rick banter that the rest of the JBL experiences on the chat board was amplified by having those 2 in the same room. It was awesome. I always enjoy my Rick and Phil time. And what I learned is that this JBL title means EVERYTHING to Rick. He really wants to win this to stick to Phil for years of turmoil. To stick to Benny for constantly reminding him of the empty trophy case. And to stick to the rest of us JBL'ers who didn't believe he could really do it.
We talked JBL trades; whose team is better; whose team can win it all; and of course - whose team is better - over and over. Rick really needed to know what I thought of his Bangkok squad. And since I have been known to be a neutral party in the longtime feud between Seoul and Bangkok I went with.....Bangkok. This was of course after I assumed that both teams would be staying with their current rosters. I think Rick was relieved to hear me say it was Bangkok. Of course, less than 24 hrs later, Bangkok pulls off a massive 6 player deal where he moved out Curry, Lewis and Kaman for Chris Paul, Okafor and Blair. Now what? Who has the better team now? Oh man...
So, with today's trade - does that mean French Lick is throwing in the towel?? He gave up a LOT of rebounds in the deal but he did get Curry. Looking at this deal, it makes me believe that French is loading up for next season. His team should still be good enough to compete for a money spot (but he needs Kaman to return to prominence this season, and soon).
And is Idaho still the picture? I think he is because he's been there for several weeks now. Knocking on the door. Can he gain ground?
Let's have a quick look at realistic point totals for the top 3 squads in the coming weeks.
Bangkok - he could move up 13 pts in 3PT%; up maybe as much as 39pts in ATO; and up 13pts in FG% - that's a +65 which would move him up to 1166. Of course, Bangkok could drop as many as 65 points in ATO, BLK's, and FG%. So, that's a low point in the 1035 range.
Idaho - I believe Idaho's ceiling is 1099 as he can possibly gain 20pts in PTS; maybe 26 pts in STL's; and maybe 30pts in REBS. Of course, Idaho could lose as many as 74 points (3PT%, BLK's, PTS, and REBS) - which puts his floor total around 950 points.
Seoul - Seoul can gain points in a few categories as well. He could gain 13pts in 3PT% as he's closing the gap on French. He could gain 26pts in BLKS. He could catch Idaho in scoring and that would be another 20pts. And I believe that Seoul will catch Arctic in rebounds and that would be another big 15pts. That's a potential 74 points which puts his immediate ceiling at 1098. Seoul isn't in too much immediate danger of losing any points - other than in ATO (13pts) which leaves his floor at 1011.
Now of course, this quick little analysis is just short term gains and losses within the next 2-3 weeks. Longer term is a bit more difficult to predict. Bangkok really increased his REBS in his latest deal. Can that propel him upwards in that category as well? Only time will tell. I look forward to the Bangkok vs. Idaho vs. Seoul stretch drive.
So, who is the favorite to win it all?? It's going to be close and it's going to take some luck. And whichever team wins it all is going to need some help from the rest of us in certain categories. Unless French or Arctic have some other moves up their sleeves - I think they will be battling it out for the 4th and final money spot. I honestly believe, as of right now anyways, that this is a 3 horse race for the JBL title.
And fellas, if you ever lucky enough to get invited for lunch with Rick and Phil, take them up on it. It really is a lot of fun.
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