The JBL draft could look very different in October if the NBA isn't playing any ball. No summer leagues. No rookie camps. No exhibition games. No Free Agency period. Everything will be up in the air. But that could actually be exciting. Where will David West end up? Will Nene go back to Denver? How much are they worth? Is Ricky Rubio any good? Who's the starting PF in Cleveland? Oh man, the risk-reward opportunities out there will be huge!! As exciting as the 'chance' will be in drafting - it would be very sad knowing that the season wasn't starting a couple of night later.
Timmy P texted me the other day to see if I had any changes in mind. I didn't at the time. And no one had emailed me any ideas. But that got Johnny thinking. And now I have an idea. I am very confident I have posted it here before so I thought I would revive the idea. It comes in a couple of potential phases. The main crux of my idea focuses on the NBA rookies...
Why not have our own JBL lottery? We can't do it based on last year's standings (we could in the future), but why not try out a lottery system? One of the challenges of doing this is that we use the CBS auction room to do our draft. If we continued using that (and I think everyone loves its ease and speed) then we would have to implement a rule that the lottery and draft picks were done ahead of the auction portion of the draft. Then we could load the rookies onto their JBL teams and then conduct the Auction.
So, we put all our names (or ping pong balls) in a hat...or a bowl...or a trophy...of a hollowed out ham....and we reverse draw for order. First team out of the hat gets 13th pick...next gets 12th...and so on - all the way down to #1 pick. That would be our order for our 1 round of picks for the incoming NBA rookie class. And to be clear - this would be for Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams - not for Ricky Rubio. And in future, we too, could weight the chances of winning the lottery depending on where you finished in the prior years' JBL standings.
So, we would establish our rookie draft order. My next proposal would be a salary system that is based on a scaled salary system. I have tried a number of different ones this morning as I type this. Initially, I thought a $2 decrease from #1 to #13 (so $26-24-22-20 all the way down to $2 bucks for the #13 pick.) More on potential salary scales later - but for now - let's use this idea of 26-24-22-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-2 - even though I know in my head it's too 'rich' for the idea.
My proposal is for just one round of NBA rookies being picked. All other rookies would be available via auction as in previous years.
Also, I would propose that JBL teams could "PASS" on a rookie selection if they wished. The spot would be left blank and the draft would continue on (example below)
10th - Joe Blow $8
11th - PASS
12th - Stinky Stinkerson $4
13th - PASS
So...let me go through some of the PRO's and CON's of this system...
And if I miss any please make sure to email me your thoughts...
THE GOOD:
- The JBL becomes even more NBA-like
- teams would now have the opportunity to prepare for a rookie draft
- Down the road, previous years standings could be incorporated into our own lottery system where the bottom teams had a higher chance of getting the 1st pick (just like the NBA)
- I would also propose that in future years your draft pick could be used in JBL trades (can you imagine trading say Luol Deng for a future 1st round pick). And because we would only have 1 round of rookie picks - you could only trade one year in advance. I don't think trading my 2017 pick to Chilliwack works...
- In this system - you could get some real bargains from the rookie crop based on the salary system (Blake Griffin for $26 bucks in year 1!!)
- JBL teams can make their own assessment of team needs and rookie values. Just because the T-Wolves thought Derrick Williams was the #2 pick - if your JBL team is stacked with 4 forwards - maybe you want to grab Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker with the 2nd pick.
- JBL teams could still 'PASS' on a rookie if they didn't think they were getting value from the 12th or 13th draft spot - so they are being forced to take someone.
- Also, could you imagine the potential trades that could be done in this window. Let's say Yuma won the lottery and had 1st pick and the clock was ticking (we could have our own clock in the room as well!) and then Bangkok pipes up and says (use his voice here) - "Ummm, Pat, you know, I'll give you LaMarcus Aldridge for that #1 pick".
- It adds another fun layer to the JBL auction process.
THE BAD
- The most obvious one in my books is the loss of the free-market system. In years past - everyone would have a chance to draft Kyrie Irving and his auction price is set by the JBL. This JBL rookie draft takes that equal opportunity away.
- This would probably extend our JBL draft day by maybe 30-45 minutes (like that's a bad thing really)
- We would have to manually place these players onto their JBL teams before the Auction could begin (again, big whoop)
- Would JBL teams start to tank near the end of a JBL season to try and increase their odds of getting the #1 pick in next year's rookie draft? Well, maybe, but it's still a lottery and there would be no guarantee you'd get the 1st pick. Also, we have a great system in place where the lower you go in the standings may increase your chances of the #1 rookie pick - but it also decreases the number of players you can protect. So, if we used last year's standings, Belgrade has zero players coming back but maybe wins the lottery and can pick Kyrie Irving for $26 bucks. Is that really worth 'tanking'? I think it's risky.
- There isn't enough rookie talent to warrant salaries ranging from $26 down to $2 (and I think the salary scale needs to be adjuster to a lower price point - so read on)
- We lose the ability to take those late draft rookie sleepers (last year's Greg Monroe for $2 bucks)
So, just for fun, let's look at the top 13 picks in the real NBA draft last season with the concept that they were picked in the same order in a JBL rookie draft (with JBL salary idea)...
1. John Wall $26
2. Evan Turner $24
3. Derrick Favors $22
4. Wesley Johnson $20
5. DeMarcus Cousins $18
6. Ekpe Udoh $16
7. Greg Monroe $14
8. Al Farouq Aminu $12
9. Gordon Hayward $10
10. Paul George $8
11. Cole Aldrich $6
12. Xavier Henry $4
13. Ed Davis $2
So, from that exercise, what did I learn? I would say that along the way there I could definitely see some JBL teams being very disappointed in their selections (Turner, Favors, Udoh, Aldrich)...but I could also see some JBL teams being very happy with their bargains - Wall, Cousins, Johnson, Monroe, Davis)...I also think the proposed salary levels would have to be adjusted to reflect the risk.
So, what about the argument that there isn't enough rookie talent? And I get it - it's a crap shoot - but it is for the NBA GM's as well. Remember the great debate on whether Oden or Durant should have been picked #1?? What would have happened in the JBL??? So, let's see what kind of JBL talent and salaries would have looked liked if we nailed the 2010 rookie class...and yes, it's lacking in depth, I'll admit that...
#1 - Wall $26 (less than his auction salary)
#2 - Cousins $24 (less than his auction salary)
#3 - Fields $22 (more than auction) - so this a case where we would lose the ability to find a gem in the rough. But I would also argue that no one in the JBL owner group would have taken the #39th pick in the NBA draft with the #3 pick in the JBL draft. Fields would have been up for auction anyways
#4 - Monroe $20 (more than auction)
#5 - Johnson (more than auction)
others that would get drafted - Ed Davis, Jordan Crawford, Derrick Favors, Evan Turner, Aminu?
So, just like the NBA draft - there are no guarantees - that's why I would advocate the ability for a JBL team to "PASS" on a pick. So, a team may have the 6th pick in the JBL rookie draft - and may choose to pass because $16 bucks might not be a good value there. And that would be fine with me.
I think the biggest hurdle from JBL owners would be the chance to grab those cheap rookie sleepers at the end of the auction. Well, in some way, those would still be there. The NBA has 30 first round picks - we would only have 13 rookies selected (and that's if all JBL teams used their pick). Would Landry Fields have been there last year on auction night? Absolutely.
I would predict, that many JBL owners in a rookie draft would be looking at their NBA GM's and probably try to mirror what they did if there was a doubt. Let's check out this theory and I will quickly mock the 2011 rookie class (because there are some guys - like #5 Valencious in TO who isn't coming to the NBA this year anyways - so he certainly wouldn't go #5 in our rookie draft). Let me also do this with a different salary structure in mind - how about this one - check out a quick mock draft with a new salary structure...
1 - Irving $20
2. Williams $18
3. Kanter $16
4. Thompson $14
5. Walker $12
6. Knight $10
7. Vesely $7
8. Jimmer $6
9. Shumpert $5
10. Faried $4
11. Leonard $3
12. Biyombo $2
13. Burks $1
So - there could be some rookie bargains there in my mind...and I think that type of salary structure might be better...
And of course - let's say you get the #1 pick - do you have more faith in Kyrie or Jimmer? The options are endless...yet still, if you don't like your options - you could 'pass'.
So, I think I've rambled on enough on the topic. I think you get it. But let me add one more piece to this...we are facing a NBA lockout and the real possibility that we don't get to do the JBL this season...so why not try something new...we may not even get to see if it works if the NBA doesn't come back...but it might be worth a try...
With that...I'll say Happy Canada Day and I look forward to some feedback on the idea.
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