Sunday, January 8, 2012

Rookie Lottery Ideas...

Well, after not receiving one single idea from the JBL masses, I thought I would throw some of mine out there for the 2012 Rookie Lottery. I'm sitting here watching the Denver Tebow's or God's Team beat up on the Steelers. Come on, who didn't see this one coming? Bill Simmons got it right - you always take God and the points.

So, some rookie lottery ideas...

#1 - Status Quo - exactly how we did it this year. 1 ball for each team. Reverse order draw. 1st ball out gets 13th pick, then 12th, then 11th and so on. So, in this format, it doesn't matter where you finish in the JBL standings the year before - everyone has the same chance of getting that #1 pick.

#2 Reverse order draft picks based on JBL standings. You finish 13th - you get the 1st pick. 12th place gets you 2nd pick, etc... No lottery required. I'm not a fan - this wouldn't be any fun at all - but, it's an option. Would JBL teams try to finish lower in the standings to get a higher draft pick? Maybe - but at least we have the keeper system in place that would mean you wouldn't be able to keep as many players the lower you finished in the standings. Again, not a fan of this option at all.

#3 - Fully weighted option. The lower you finish in the JBL standings - the more chance you have to get the 1st rookie pick. We would need to figure out how to do this with ping pong balls so that we don't need 91 ping pong balls. Or, you know what, maybe we do just get 91 ping pong balls. If we labelled the balls with numbers ('13') then they could be used in future years. If In this fully weighted option - even the JBL winning team would be in the lottery and could get the #1 rookie pick. The 1st ball out would get the 1st pick. 2nd ball out gets 2nd pick and so on. So, the JBL champion (1 ball) would have a 1 in 91 (o.o1%) chance of getting the 1st pick. The last place team (13 balls) would have a 13/91 (14.3%) chance of getting the 1st pick.

#4 - Fully weighted and Tiered option. Similar to #3 option in that every team has a chance to win the lottery. In this scenario I would propose that there would be tiers where teams would have the same number of balls. Total number of balls in play =108 (9 dozen - makes it easy for purchase)
1st - 1 ball (less than 1% chance of winning lottery)
2nd - 2 balls (just under 2% chance)
3rd - 3 balls (just under 3% chance)
4th - 4 balls (just under 4% chance)
5th to 8th - 8 balls each (7.4% chance)
9th to 12th - 12 balls each (11.1% chance)
13th - 18 balls (16.6% chance)

#5 - Partially weighted option. In this scenario - let's say the top 4 JBL teams (money winners) would not be in the lottery. The other 9 teams go into the weighted lottery to determine picks 1-9. Then, the remaining teams would be placed in reverse order of standings. How many balls per lottery team would need to be determined. Then, once the lottery is determined for picks 1 to 9, the 4th place finisher would get 10th pick; 3rd gets 11th; 2nd gets 12th and the JBL champion would get the 13th pick. This is similar to the NBA model where the lower teams get the chance to add the better rookies.

There you have it....5 ideas for consideration. If anyone else has any ideas - I'm listening....

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