Sunday, January 15, 2012

Week 3 Closing Comments...

Well, the rookie lottery choices are up...so far, leading the way with 3 votes each is "Balls Match Standings" and "Balls Match Keepers". Two very different schools of thought as to how the rookie lottery should work. And I respect both choices and I could live with either of these choices. Let me explain.

Balls Match Standings - this is more like the NBA model in that the higher you finish in the JBL standings the less chance you have of getting the 1st pick. The JBL Champ would have just 1 ball in the mix while the last place team would have 13 balls. To me, this makes the actual lottery more exciting because if the JBL champ's ball came out first - that's a true lottery miracle (a 1 in 91 shot). The other advantage to this choice is trying to balance the powers of the JBL or another way of looking at it - challenging those JBL owners who have constant success. Look at the current JBL standings - Phil Woo is leading the way AGAIN! Do we really need him having the chance of getting the best rookies too?? I get the side that says - "why are we rewarding the teams that finish lower in the standings?" I understand that - but one of the facts of the matter is that those JBL owners who consistently do well in the JBL- put more time into the league. Those teams that finish lower would greatly benefit from getting a good rookie to help their JBL cause. And of course, just because you get a top 5 rookie pick - doesn't mean that JBL owner will pick the right guy. And remember - we are talking about just 1 rookie player who has never played an NBA game in his life.

Balls Match Keepers - This is a motivation-based system that rewards success. Just like our keeper system. The better you do - the more keepers you get. The better you do - the more chances you'll get a higher rookie pick. While the chances aren't as staggered in this model as the 1st place team will have 4 balls and the 13th place team will have 1 ball - so the odds aren't quite as exciting. Is there enough motivation in this model for a late season charge from to get from 9th to 8th so the JBL team can get 1 extra rookie ball and 1 extra keeper? Perhaps. Either way - however, the vote goes - I'd be happy with either of these choices.

Week 3 is winding down and I've noticed a few things...
  • My Showers squad did just fine without Dwyane Wade. Looks like it's time to move him for a stud shot blocker.
  • Kyle Lowry has become a top notch fantasy PG
  • The Wizards are bad and John Wall has not been a good fantasy player
  • JaVale McGee is a block machine....Mutombo like
  • Scoring this season is way down and reminds me of college scores.
  • Injuries continue to mount - part of the JBL success is definitely going to be tied to how many many games are lost due to injury
  • Kobe just ripped off 4 straight games of 40+ points - that sure helps Yuma when the league scoring average per JBL team is around 13ppg
  • Looks like the Rookie of the Year race will be a two man show - Kyrie Irving and Ricky Rubio are heads and tails above the rest so far. And on top of that - Rubio is waaaaaay better than I thought he would be.
  • And kudos to Idaho and Maui for finding rookie gems late in the lottery. Markieff Morris and Iman Shumpert were both very good picks
  • Indy and Philly are both winning and are doing it with balance. It doesn't make for very exciting fantasy players however. Both teams have 6-7 guys averaging double digits in scoring
Team Needs

Brussels is last in 3PT% (27%) and last in scoring. They are 2nd in steals and 2nd in rebounds. He will also be getting Zach back in a few weeks. Sounds like he could move a big body for some scoring and 3PT help.

Maui is last in ATO - which I actually find a bit surprising considering he has Chris Paul, Monta, Odom and others. Maui is slowly gaining in categories as guys like Dalembert, Odom, and others wake up. Losing a 15-18ppg scorer like Beasley has also hurt.

Golden is 12th in blocks and 2nd in scoring and steals. This has been accomplished without much from D-Wade so if Wade and can leveraged for a big time shot blocker that would give Golden much more balance.

Montreal is last in rebounds and FG% while he's 3rd in blocks. How is this possible? Big men block shots. Usually they also rebound and make easy buckets. I just don't get this correlation. Montreal is really missing the production of Manu Ginobili but has to be very please with Kyrie and my new favorite big man Marc Gasol.

Arctic is last in steals and 12th in FG% while they are 1st in scoring. Sounds like they could use a thief that shoots 3's.

Seoul is 11th in scoring but is solid everywhere else. No wonder there's lots of interest in D-Wade.

TOP KEEPERS (1st Edition)

I know it's early in the season but all this talk about Rookie Lotteries and thinking about next season has got me in the mood to identify some of those guys I like as potential keepers. The list is loaded with Centers and Guards...

Here are my current favorites - in no particular order...

Marc Gasol $28 - look at his all around numbers - if only he could score 15+
Andrew Bynum $20 - dominant big man - will he change postal codes and be the #1 option?
Ty Lawson $10 - scoring, FG% and steals are very impressive for this little guy
JaVale McGee $16 - leads the league in blocks and adds 12ppg and 10reb.
Spencer Hawes $2 - so far he's been very good - big pay day in his future
DeAndre Jordan $6 - needs more scoring and boards - but blocks are sure nice
Jeff Teague $6 - 12ppg and 6ast and 2 steals per game. Great start to season
Ricky Rubio $10 - can't believe his numbers - 11pg and 8ast and 2 steals a game
Ryan Anderson $2 - 17ppg and 7reb and wicked 3PT%
James Harden $8 - 17ppg and all round numbers - breakout season underway

Others I like include - Gerald Henderson $1, Lou Williams $1, Paul George $8, Evan Turner $3, Markieff Morris $2, Brandon Knight $4, Kris Humphries $15, Mike Conley $14, Kyrie Irving $15, and Marcus Thornton $15.

I'm sure throughout the season these players will come and go from the list....

Enjoy football Sunday!

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