So, here we go. The final month of the season. The final 3 weeks. We have one of the closest races ever in the history of the JBL. Let's break down the JBL standings. Here are some of the things I've noticed.
First of all, it certainly appears that teams 6th through 8th are locked in. Yuma, Bangkok and Idaho seem destined to finish here (barring miracles above and below). The Yuma vs. Bangkok rivalry will certainly heat up if Yuma finishes ahead of the Kok. Idaho, he of the great many keepers for next season, looks like he will finish in the top 8 and get his precious 3 keepers (Bynum, Rubio, Harden, Jordan?).
9th and 10th appears to be Arctic and Montreal. I don't see anyone falling or climbing around them. So, they will each get 2 keepers for next season. Tough one for Arctic as I think he has more than 2 value guys for next year. I can pretty much guarantee you one of those spots will be Serge Ibaka's. Montreal's dynamic duo will have to decide who gets their 2 spots. And will we see an expansion application from David Boucher to become the JBL's 14th team next season? We'll find out...
11th and 12th will go Manhattan Beach and Maui. Pretty sure in that order. 1 keeper each. Sounds like MBB will bring back Lebron while Maui can choose from his collection of cheap talent (Shumpert, Lou Williams, Gerald Henderson).
And our 13th place team will be Brussels. If Tim ever wanted to know what rock bottom was like - this is it. As he mentioned in a text to me - everyone loves a comeback. And that's what he's hoping for in 2012/13. He's hit the bottom and can only go up from here. He'll have no keepers and will have to start from scratch. Maybe that's the best thing for him. Not only has he hit 13th in the JBL standings- he's hit #4 in the Pershick Family Standings. That 2nd stat is probably the worse of the 2 options. Will Benny start subbing in the 'Brussels' name where he once used 'Idaho'??
And then we have our top 5 teams. Let's start with the Wack. Benny's squad has been devastated by injury. Losing Derrick Rose and Kyle Lowry to injury crushed his title hopes. He's currently at 895 points tonight and appears to be fading into the background of the title race. Benny does have some room to move in 3PT%, STL's and FG%. Looks like he could gain around 80 points. He could get back up to the 980 range. Would that be enough? Personally, I think it's gonna take at least 1000 points to win it.
The best category to watch over the next 3 weeks is going to be 3PT%. It's so tight and it changes so much every night. Juan appears to have 1st in this category locked up but Seoul, Wack, French and Golden all have HUGE points available to grab with some hot shooting. Some teams could gain 60+ points in this one category alone. It's such a key category that I played Wesley Mathews over Luis Scola this week just because of his 3PT potential. I believe this category will ultimate decide who wins the title.
ATO - French and Seoul are 1-2 in this category. That's a big 13 point swing for those teams if Seoul could catch French. And actually it's a 26 point swing. And Juan de Fuca is barely holding off Maui in this category right now (1.474 to 1.473). That's 13 points that Juan doesn't want to lose. The Wack and Golden appear to be treading water in this category and are unlikely to gain or lose any ground.
Blocks are another huge category. The Wack has been 1st all year but Seoul has slowly closed the gap. Can Seoul gain 13 points here?? But Seoul also has to be mindful of Serge Ibaka and those Arctic Circle Jerks. Arctic is now only 4 blocks behind Seoul!! Losing 13 points here would not sit well with Woo. And Golden, French and Juan are only separated by 19 blocks total. So, more points available here potentially.
As I type this - French, Golden and Juan are all shooting 45.8% on the year. Just fractions away from gaining or losing 13 points (or more). One missed or made shot can move us up or down in this category. It's insane. And above us, in 1st and 2nd, are Seoul and Chilliwack. Again, separated by 0.1%. The Wack could sure use those 13 points.
Juan, Golden and French are 1st, 2nd and 3rd in scoring now. Juan appears to have a comfortable lead but the way French has been scoring I'm thinking he could catch Golden and Juan and gain a big 40 points here and take the lead. Yuma and the Wack are very close in scoring and maybe, just maybe, Yuma could keep the pressure on in this category.
Again, the top 4 teams in the JBL standings are actually the top 4 teams in the steal category. It appears Seoul is the favorite to win this category as he's 8 steals ahead of Golden now. Golden is 5 steals ahead of Juan and Juan is 5 steals ahead of French. Overall, Seoul (1st) is only 18 steals ahead of French (4th). So, yes, that's a difference of 39 points for finishing 1st instead of 4th in this one category. French has been on fire in this category as of late and could challenge Seoul.
The rebounds category has been dominated by the Wack all year long. Juan is still a distant 2nd and I don't think they will catch him. On the bright side for Juan, I don't think any team will challenge their grasp on 2nd place in this category. Golden is 3rd in rebounds with Seoul, French and the surprising Arctic close behind. It was the surge from these 3 teams that made me go out and acquire Scola at the trade deadline. It was Nene's injury in Seoul that convinced me that I could play Mathews this week (4 games) over Scola (3 games). Had Nene been healthy - Scola would be in my lineup.
What does it all mean? It means I really don't know who is going to win this thing. Many of the categories are still close and many of them are close between contending teams. So, it's not just one contending team moving up 13 points - it's another contender is likely losing 13 points at the same time. 26, 30, or 40 point swings depending on the category. This JBL title will come down to the final night. I feel it.
I see that Seoul has decided to play Nene and Ray Allen this week. Nene missed tonight's game but Seoul really didn't have any other options. Will Allen play? And news from the late game is that Luke Ridnour sprained his ankle and did not return. His status for the rest of the week is not yet known. If he misses time that would be another big blow for the Seoul squad.
Juan, yet again, got All-Star-like performances from Mike Dunleavy and Gordon Hayward. What FA signings these guys turned out to be! Dunleavy is shooting 65% and 66% from FG% and 3PT% over his last 10 games. Holy shit Batman.
Golden saw the return of Nikola Pekovic to the floor tonight. He played sparingly but put up 17pts in 19 minutes. He shot 7/8 from the floor and I could use his FG% and rebounds. The bad news is now I have 4 bench guys and will have to drop someone since the trade deadline has passed. I have until Sunday to make that decision and it won't be easy because of the quality guys I have to choose from right now. The mostly likely candidates to be jettisoned will be Shannon Brown and Bismack Biyombo.
French didn't have Mike Conley tonight as he's nursing an ankle injury. Memphis plays 5 games this week and next so I'm sure Hildy is hoping for a speedy recovery. And the promising play of JJ Hickson came to a halt to tonight (4pts 5ebs). This is JBL law. If you have a guy on your bench and he's lighting it up - the moment you activate him - he stinks. And vice versa. If you are starting a guy and you've had enough of his shitty performances and you bench him - then he'll light it up immediately. Simple stuff really. JBL law.
As much as I wanted to plan for 4 foreign keepers for next season (Gortat, Ilyasova, Pekovic, and Biyombo) - I have developed a love for little Isaiah Thomas. He had another nice game tonight for the Kings (17pts, 5/0 ATO, 1 stl, 3/7 downtown). And he's $1 buck. His last 10 games? Tendex over 20. So, maybe it's big foreigners and 1 small PG next season?
Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. We've all heard that saying before. Well, I'm really thankful for that expression because I offered Brussels Jarrett Jack and Brandon Bass for Zach Randolph. Tubby Zach had 10 points and 3 rebounds tonight while shooting 2/9. Because Tim turned that trade down I had to focus on getting another big man and acquired Scola. Funny how these things work out sometimes.
Anyone on Facebook who follows Bill Simmons likely saw the hotel room he and his buddies had for their baseball draft. It was the Hardwood Suite at The Palms Hotel. Check it out.
How about we all gather here on October 27th, 2012 for the 22nd Annual JBL Auction??? Who's with me??
Anyways, that's all I've got for tonight. It's gonna be an awesome 3 weeks of hoops because of this JBL Title race. Looking forward to seeing how much it changes every night.
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