As my JBL 2012/13 preparation continues I've come to the realization that I've really over-estimated the quality of the 4 keepers I plan on bringing back for next season. You know when you see those girls in the night clubs that look really hot?? Then, at the end of the night, they turn on the 'regular' lights and the girl is a dog. They looked much better than they really are...that's what I could be dealing with my squad. Let me explain....
My plan is to bring Gortat, Ilyasova, Pekovic and Thomas all back for another run in Golden. I was thinking these 4 guys are great keepers and all would go for more in the JBL Auction. While I still believe that to be true (they would go for more than their keeper price at Auction) - I'm not as certain that these 4 guys will 'star' producers like they were in 2011/12.
Let's start with Marcin Gortat. He averaged 15ppg and 10reb with 1.5 blocks and shot 55%. But what if Nash leaves?? Can Gortat put up those numbers without Nash? I'm not so sure. He must have got a lot of easy buckets due to magical passes from Capt. Canada. So, while I still like Gortat and what he brings to the table for $20 bucks...I'm not sure he's going to improve on those numbers.
And Ersan Ilyasova had a breakout season in Milwaukee. On the year he averaged 13ppg and 9reb while shooting 49/45. And in the 2nd half of the season he averaged 16 and 9 while shooting 55/51. Crazy numbers. He's coming back to Golden for just $6 bucks. The trouble is that I don't know where he'll be playing in 2012. He's an unrestricted Free Agent and could land anywhere. What if he doesn't fit in with his new team? What if he's the 4th or 5th option? Can he perform at the same level on a new team? Before last season he really hadn't been a fantasy factor - so is he a breakout player or a one hit wonder?
Then I have Nikola Pekovic. The big man became the starting Center in Minny last season and had a good year before succumbing to ankle injuries. In the 2nd half of last season he put up 15ppg and 7reb while shooting 53%. Again, one hit wonder or breakout player? What other pieces will Minny add this off season and how will they affect the big man? Will he still be the main man down low? Will he be the #2, #3, or #4 option on offense? Will he be recovered from off season ankle surgery? Many, many questions about the Monster.
And finally there is little Isaiah Thomas. The man who essentially won the championship for Golden in the final NBA game of last season will be back. But what will his role be in Sac-town? Will the Kings bring in another PG? His 2nd half stats show 14ppg and 5ast with 47/40 as percentages. Again, he was a rookie last year and there is no history behind the kind of season he managed. Will he be a one hit wonder? Will he be able to do it again? Will the Kings be able build around such a small PG? It would be nice if the Kings would draft Andre Drummond with the 5th pick and start a lineup of Thomas, Thornton, Evans, Cousins, and Drummond. I think that lineup would allow Thomas to play more because he would have the defensive monster in Drummond behind him protecting the rim. We'll see what happens...
So, there you have it. I like my 4 proposed keepers but I'm not 100% confident they'll all be able to build on the seasons they had last year. I do have a couple of other keeper options still on the roster (Dudley) if something happens during the summer.
I actually think there are some teams with better keeper options than Golden. I like the Idaho squad of 3 players. Bynum, Rubio, and Harden. That's a wicked trio. Best keeper group in my mind. I know he has DeAndre Jordan as well as an option, but come on, let's be serious, how can Jordan get into the top 3?
I really like French's keepers as well. Lawson, Teague, Ryan Anderson and Drew Gooden. French can keep those 4 guys for just $39 bucks. Wowzers. I've put Gooden into his top 4 because of the pending Free Agency of Ilyasova. The Bucks are gonna need big men and Gooden is one of the best they have left. He averaged 15 and 7 in the 2nd half of last year. He's a veteran big man and would only be $6 bucks.
And I'm still a huge fan of Arctic's group as well. Ibaka, Faried, and Sessions. Those 3 players could be protected for just $31 bucks. Ibaka is the best shot-blocker in the NBA by far and actually averaged over 4 blocks per game in the 2nd half of last season. The Manimal should have a stranglehold on the Nuggets PF positions for the next 10 years. He averaged 12 and 8, shot 60%, and had a block and steal per game in the 2nd half of last season. Oh, and he did all of that in just 25 minutes a game. The guy should be a monster. And Sessions, despite his playoff performance, actually played very well for the Lakers down the stretch. Will he back in LA? Only time will tell...
Only 5 more sleeps until the 2012 NBA Draft....I'm excited.
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