The Top Keepers – December Version
So here is my first attempt at identifying the best potential keepers for the 2016/17 JBL season. These will change as the year goes on and other players will emerge as better value keepers. I’m approaching this with a couple of things in mind:
1) Based on the player’s current salary and adding $5 bucks to that for a keeper price – is the player undervalued as to what I think his Auction price would be?
2) Based on my expectations of how much better I think the player will be next season compared to his keeper price and potential Auction value
Let’s go team by team and look at who I think the best 4-5 keepers are on each team. I will list the current year’s salary and hope that you guys can all add $5 bucks to that number to figure out his Keeper price. Tuna, take your shoes and socks off if needed.
Arctic
· Rondo $18 – he’s back! How long can he keep it up? Will he implode? If he continues like this, he’s a monster PG in Fantasyland.
· The Alphabet, The Greek Freak, Giannis $17 – only going to get better. A roto-monster potentially
· Zaza Pachulia $1 – the anti-DeAndre. Most teams are probably looking for some rebound help. Why not keep a guy who is underpriced? Of course, Dallas could bring in someone else.
· Bradley Beal $21 – does a lot of things well. Unfortunately, staying healthy isn’t one of them
· Mudiay $9 – I’m a sucker for the rookies that have 5 year keeper potential
Bangkok
· Zach Lavine $1 – at some point Minny has to decide what to do with him. Is he a PG or a SG? Will they trade K-Mart? If yes, does Lavine play SG? Cheap option for sure with potentially expanded role in 2016/17
· Cauley-Stein $8 – another rookie with 5 year potential. Looks like he could be a defensive gem. Challenge will be getting on the floor. I would have more faith in him if he wasn’t in Sactown
· Nicholas Batum $23 – often dubbed a Johnny favourite. He’s become primary weapon in Charlotte with Kemba and having a renaissance year. He would go for more at Auction.
· Justise Winslow $10 – If this was $1 instead of $10 I would love it. He has potential and he has the aging, often-injured Luol Deng blocking him. He’s getting a lot of minutes already.
· The other guys I considered for 5th and final spot was DeRozan $25 and Kaminsky $3. You know what you’re going to get with DeMar and that’s an OK price. Frank the Tank is based on potential and what you think Charlotte will do with Marvin Williams and Big Al. I wonder if Boston is thankful that MJ turned down their offer of 6 draft picks for Frank?
Brussels
· Jusuf Nurkic $3 – big man with lots of upside. Can he stay healthy? A lot of big body options in Denver. Can he emerge as the best of the bunch?
· Motiejunas $1 – another bargain basement price. Terrence Jones cannot stay healthy and Capela is more of a defensive stopper. Motie could get more and more time.
· Capela $10 – Dwight’s replacement? Loads of potential. I would love it if he had a lower salary.
· Millsap $45 – I still think he is under-valued at this price.
· Super Mario Hezonja $3 – this is just based on potential and my affinity for 5 year keeper potential. Will Orlando give him minutes? Only time will tell.
Chilliwack
· Avery Bradley $3 – I’m not sure he can keep up his current pace but he’s more like a $20 dollar player. Boston has a lot of guards. Where does he fit in the long term plan?
· Deron Williams $4 – do you trust those ankles? I think he’s worth about $25 bucks but his Auction price this year indicates how much we trust his ability to stay healthy.
· Jae Crowder $10 – the do-it-all forward is putting up some nice numbers. Just wish Boston had more of a set rotation. His shooting has improved and you gotta love those steals
· Jonas Valanciunas $17 – Before his injury, he was having a really good year. I think he’s undervalued at this price.
· Myles Turner $7 – the most hyped rookie in recent memory almost has to be protected after all of the deals he’s been a part of this year. I wonder if someone makes a play for him yet again?
· Paul George $24 – what a comeback from a gruesome injury. He’s WAY undervalued at this price. 27ppg, 8reb, 4ast. 44/43 %’s. 37 steals. All that means big bucks at Auction.
· I’ve already listed 6 guys and didn’t mention KD or Draymond in this space. Are they good keepers potentially? Absolutely. But I don’t want this to become some sort of love affair with the Wack and how many great keepers he has. And I don’t want other keeper-challenged teams to feel jealous about how inadequate their lists look up against the Offs. It’s like peeing next to a black guy – you’re going to be disappointed if you do a comparison. Benny has the most keeper options out of all the JBL rosters right now. We just have to face that fact and move one.
French Lick
· Danilo Gallinari $6 – His FG% is down but he’s contributing in a lot of other categories. Good price for 18 and 6 guy.
· Jimmy Butler $13 – He is the new face of the Bulls franchise. Forget D-Rose. 21-5-3 with steals. He’s a stud.
· Khris Middleton $6 – Shoots better from downtown than he does in FG%. Good solid contributions in several categories. These cheap keepers allow teams to then add the high priced studs at Auction.
· CJ McCollum $21 – too soon? What if he actually gets better? 20-4-3 with 43/39 shooting and 1+ steals. Big time potential. Could you imagine the Blazers if they had a stud PF? Someone like LaMarcus Aldridge? They would be a 50+ win team. Oh wait. Nevermind.
· Isaiah Thomas $21 – He’s averaging 21ppg and 7ast with 35 steals and an ATO of 161/61. If other PG’s (Dragic, Conley, etc) are all going for $25-$35 at Auction – why isn’t this guy worth keeping?
Golden
· Andre Drummond $18 – 18ppg, 16reb, 51 steals, 39 blocks, 52% FG. Nuff said.
· Karl-Anthony Towns $15 – potential 5 year keeper is just scratching the surface.
· Kawhi Leonard $35 – 21ppg, 8reb, 51/49 shooting with 48 steals and 25 blocks. Oh, and his ATO is 63/32.
· Eric Bledsoe $28 – Golden is filled with this middle-priced keepers. EB is averaging 22-6-4 with 52 steals and decent percentages. The challenge with keeping all of these guys is not having any money left for the Auction.
· Shane Larkin $2 – putting him here based on potential opportunity. At some point, you have to think Brooklyn will move Jarrett Jack along and see if Larkin can run the show the full time. His stats in limited time is appealing.
Idaho
· Nerlens Noel $12 – once considered a top flight long-term keeper, Noel has struggled mightily in 2015. His numbers (10/8 with 30 steals and 20 blocks) are nowhere near where they should be after a very promising rookie campaign.
· Damian Lillard $27 – superstar. 25-7-5. One more year left on his rookie deal.
· Cody Zeller $2 – he’s here because of the potential opportunity. He’s shown glimpses of being a serviceable player. What Charlotte does with Marvin, Big Al, and Frank the Tank will directly impact Cody’s long term keeper potential. He’s cheap and could be a good source of rebounds. I can’t believe what I’ve just done by putting his name here. Can you imagine the number of trade offers we’re all going to receive now stating that Zeller has keeper potential. OMG – what have I done???
· There aren’t a lot of other great keeper options on this roster right now. I like Marc Gasol and Mike Conley but those prices are about right for them. Would I carry them forward? Maybe, but I’m not sure if you would be saving any money on them off of their Auction prices. Sorry Tuna, your cupboard is quite bare when it comes to top flight keepers. You have two (Noel, Lillard) but after that…..eeeesh.
Juan de Fuca
· Kyle Lowry $41 – He’s playing skinny and he’s loving it. Monster year from Kyle. If he plays like this all year then he'd be undervalued.
· Brandon Knight $21 – Putting up 20-5-4 with good %’s. Enjoying the sun in PHX. Still undervalued at this price.
· Jordan Clarkson $1 – with Kobe’s retirement news his stock just went up even higher. How did he go for just $1 bucks at Auction. The rest of us must have been fanning the stench of Maui’s arse away. We all messed up on this kid.
· Andre Iguodala $4 – Hey, I thought he was done. Completely done. But he’s having a really good year off the bench. He’s a 5 category player (low scoring and no blocks anymore). His ATO is 3.518. He shoots 3’s. He does a little bit of everything. Love how he’s adapted his game. Absolutely undervalued at this price. Can he do it again next year though?
· Lord Covington $2 – you knew I would be putting him on here. My favourite 76er. OK, he doesn’t shoot the greatest (38/32) and his ATO is pretty bad for a non-center (30/53) but my goodness, I just like this guy. He’s 14 and 6 with 39 steals and 17 blocks. And he plays a LOT of minutes. I like him. You guys know that.
Manhattan Beach
· Currently our 13th place team. Unless he picks up his socks, Bobby is in danger of bringing nobody back to this roster. Let’s assume he’ll move up and have some keepers….for now.
· Andrew Wiggins $17 – hasn’t progressed like I thought he would but still has great potential. Lacking the stocks (14stls & 15 blks) and still has a poor ATO (36/48) but is dropping 21ppg.
· Blake Griffin $54 – He’s averaging 24-9-5. He’s probably approaching his Auction price but it can sometimes be nice to start with a stud keeper so you don’t have to worry about the Auction prices.
· Will Barton $10 – another Johnny favourite. Former Blazer. Breakout star in Denver. He’s averaging 15ppg with 6 rebounds. Shooting good percentages with good steals and even chips in some blocks. I like this guy. The true question is whether he can sustain it.
· After those 3, slim pickings in MBB-land right now. His main focus needs to be getting out of the basement so he can at least keep one of these guys.
Maui
· Anthony Davis $30 – one more year on the rookie deal. Does the Title window for Maui close once AD goes back in the pool?
· Kristaps Porzingis $1 – could he be the #1 keeper overall? With his 5 year potential and $1 dollar price tag – I think he might be. How good can he be??
· Dirty Dirk $20 – I think we all thought this would be the year that Dirk finally slowed down. It hasn’t happened. And to top it off, he’s actually under-priced at $20 bucks. The risk is can he do it again next year?
· Rudy Gobert $12 – Based on pre-season expectations, who has been a bigger disappointment – Noel or Gobert? He’s been hurt a lot but is averaging 9ppg, 11reb, and 2.5 blocks. I expected so much more though.
· CJ Miles $1 – he’s here because he’s $1 dollar. No one saw 15ppg coming with 43% from downtown. If you did, you would have said $2. Again, same question, can he do it again next year? But if anyone needs a big time 3PT threat to help them out then this could be a target. I wonder if Seoul read this far along?
Norfolk
· Jahlil Okafor $12 – 5 year potential. 18 and 8 with 35 blocks. Best player on a bad team. I would expect him to be in Norfolk for a long time.
· Kemba Walker $25 – If I asked you to guess what Kemba’s shooting percentages were you would probably say 40 and 33. Well, SURPRISE, he’s shooting 45/40 right now and putting 18-5-4. He’s having a really good year. Can he sustain those %’s? If he can, he’s undervalued.
· Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $1 – it’s really more about the price. His percentages are not good but there is potential. He gets a lot of steals. OK, I’m stretching anything beyond that.
· Aaron Gordon $1 – was supposed to breakout and claim the PF job. Hasn’t happened. Could still happen. Stay tuned.
· Kent Bazemore $10 – wish it was $1 instead of $10. Can he sustain these numbers? I like him but would he really go for $15 bucks at Auction?
Seoul
· D’Angelo Russell $10 – Phil loves the fact that Kobe is retiring. Despite Woo’s constant barking about Russell’s unathletic body and pipe-cleaner legs – the kid has potential.
· Marcus Morris $2 – I think Woo would probably want Middleton’s name here on his list but Morris is still producing decent numbers. 14ppg and 6reb are good numbers. Will these improve once Detroit unloads Ersan for his twin-brother Markieff? Yes, I am starting this rumour. Reunite the wonder Morris twins and Ersan would love the sunshine in Arizona.
· Tony Parker $9 – I think Phil dreaded this pick on Draft night but now he’s seeing the positives of Tony’s game. Do you know what TP is shooting this season? 57%!! You didn’t guess that. Do you know that TP’s ATO is currently 3.000? No, you didn’t. Tony is getting older and doesn’t steal – but he can still help your Fantasy team with his 13 and 5.
· Gary Harris $5 – the kid has potential. The catch is whether Denver will allow him to grow as their SG.
· Mason Plumlee $25 – or is it Miles? Whichever one plays in Portland. 10ppg. 8reb, 24 steals. 26 blocks. 54% shooting. He’s valuable. Is he worth $30 bucks? I guess that all depends…
South Surrey
· Hassan Whiteside $6 – averaging over 4 blocks per game. 12ppg and 11reb. Oh, and did I mention the 93 blocks.
o I just want to put this into better perspective.
§ Bangkok – Fantasy man games this year = 271 games
§ Bangkok – total blocks in those 271 man games = 135 blocks (last place in JBL)
§ Hassan Whiteside – 23 games played = 93 blocks
§ If Hassan Whiteside played 271 man games he would have 1,095 blocks
· Stephen Curry $80 – If the Auction was right now, would you spend more than $80 bucks on Steph Curry?? Of course you would.
· Dennis Schoder $1 – another $1 gem that could be in line for more minutes next season
· DeMarre Carroll $7 – off to a slow start in TO but I have faith that he can be worth a lot more than this salary
· Jared Sullinger $10 – from the waiver wire to the keeper list. My advice to Jared would be to keep losing weight and stop shooting 3’s. This Boston frontcourt rotation needs to get sorted out too.
OK, I’m pooped…
Enough about keepers…