Week 3 Musings...

 

What’s going on in week 3 in the JBL?

Trade #1

It was like a sasquatch siting when we saw the Bangkok and Arctic hook up on a trade. How many of those have we seen over the years? I’m thinking we can count those on one hand. I wish there was an easy way to find all the historical trades. It is fun to go back in the history books and look at some of the historical trades. Here’s a doozy from 5 years ago – November 5, 2016.

 

Anyways, back to the deal. Arctic acquired Tyler Herro and Bangkok acquired Tyrese Haliburton. On the surface, it appears to be pretty even. Herro obviously scores and rebounds more and should pick up better 3PT% along the way while Haliburton should be superior in steals and blocks and ATO (while also being a very good 3PT shooter). It is a little comical to see that, in 7 games, Herro has just 1 steal. That’s it for stocks. Meanwhile, Haliburton, in 7 games, has 7 steals and 9 blocks. Yes, not a type-o, 9 blocks. A definite stocks magnet.

 In hindsight, maybe Golden should have protected Haliburton for $7 bucks!! And let’s remember that Arctic’s final cut was Tyler Herro (for $15 bucks). So there is a history there and with his hot start to the season you can see why Arctic would want him back. With 35% of the roto values weighted to PTS and REB you can see why the Arctic squad would want him back. Plus, he was drafted for only $9 bucks so maybe this time around, Arctic won’t let him get away.

 Overall, if I had to pick a side, I would take Haliburton for his more rounded fantasy friendly game. You could argue that he is almost a 7 category player. He’s probably light in points and rebounds but everything else looks solid. While if you needed PTS – Herro is the guy. He has a good shot at winning 6^th MOY.

  

Trade #2

The 2^nd trade of the day saw Brussels acquire Bam Adebayo and Derrick White from Chilliwack in exchange for Luka Doncic and Cam Reddish.  It’s my understanding that the Wack coveted Luka and had inquired before about his services. Pairing Luka and Ja Morant together in 2022/23 should be quite the cornerstone. Luka is a walking triple double – just squint so you don’t see that 3PT% - but you know what you’re going to get from him each and every night. I’m sure Benny is hoping that Jason Kidd doesn’t slow down his superstar.

All that said, I think Brussels wins this deal. I think Bam > Luka for fantasy and I think White > Reddish.

 Yes, Luka out-scores Bam - but every other category, save for ATO, is likely in Bam’s favour. So if you’re looking by categories – it’s 5-2 for Bam. Now, factor in that the Wack gets Luka for this year and next (while Bam goes back to auction) you can see why the Wack likely wanted to make this deal. Again, a Ja and Luka pairing going into an auction could be lethal. How many times have I said the key to winning the JBL is great keepers?

 The secondary pieces in this deal are a bit closer in value but I still give the edge to Derrick White. His path to minutes is clearer and he has to be more involved in that San Antonio offense if they even want to have a chance to win some games. I had no idea his ATO was 44/11 this season so far (Reddish is 7:14 ATO). Reddish started hot last year and then fizzled. I know because Golden had him for about 2 weeks before injuries and time-shares kicked in. He’s off to another hot start with 16ppg (2^nd best on the Hawks) and shooting 44% from deep. Can he keep it up? Or will guys like Bogdanovic and Hunter and Huerter start to eat away at his minutes? Maybe I’m a bit more down on Reddish because of our history.

 While the Wack has clearly set himself up for success in 22/23, I don’t think he’s completely removed himself from contention this year either. He’s currently in 2^nd place, over 1,000 points, so let’s see where this goes. We know with injuries and ‘health and safety protocols’ that the best projections can easily be altered from week to week.

 Side note: in the last 24 hours we’ve seen Tobias Harris, Khris Middleton, Lauri Markannen, Jakob Poeltl all go down with ‘health and safety protocols’ and are likely to miss 10 days. Some curveballs already.

 I believe this trade elevated Brussels’ hopes to repeat as JBL champ. Gives some more balance across all the categories and gets rid of that 3PT shooting. Addition by subtraction there.

 The other interesting thing to know about this deal is that Doncic was actually in another accepted trade that was going to go down on the weekend. I guess the ‘snooze you lose’ saying applies here. And from what I know of the deal, Brussels was far better off doing the deal with Chilliwack.

 

Trade #3

Oh wow, another Arctic trade. He’s been busy. I’m not sure I’ve ever received an Arctic trade offer. The latest trade sees Ricky Rubio land in Brussels and Jalen Suggs land in the frozen tundra. Hope Suggs brought some ear-muffs because it be cold there. Arctic acquires another gem from this strong rookie class. He now has both Jalen’s and hopes that they can both improve their shooting. Jalen Green (38/33) and Jalen Suggs (31/24) both have some work to do in that department. From having zero picks in this rookie draft to now having 2 of the top 5 picks is pretty cool for Arctic. Suggs has great potential and we’ll see if Brussels gave up on him too soon.

While Arctic is gathering young potential, Brussels is acquiring a veteran PG with great ATO to see if he can go back-to-back. Based on the current numbers, Brussels wins this deal, but for the long term potential, Arctic gets the nod. Rubio’s been impressive in Cleveland and is seeing 28 minutes per night, getting good ATO, lots of steals, and even scoring 13ppg.

 And, randomly enough, Ricky Rubio was involved in a trade almost exactly 5 years ago. And guess who was involved in the deal??? That's right....ARCTIC.

 

Big Jon Isaac

 

In a somewhat surprising move, Norfolk released Jonathan Isaac. The Norfolk roster was over-flowing after the 3 for 1 deal seeing him acquire Kemba, Porzingis, and JJJ. Someone had to go, I just didn’t think it would be Isaac. Elfrid Payton, sure, good call. But Isaac? Hmmm. So how much does he go for in this week’s Free Agent frenzy? He COULD be 12 and 6 with 1.5 steals and 2 blocks per game. And those could be conservative. The issue with him, as it’s always been, is his health. How many minutes will Orlando want to play him? They are destined to be a bottom 5 team and get a really good draft pick – so you definitely don’t want him playing so much that you actually win more games. That said, the kid is a stocks monster.

I’m reminded that the highest ever FA bid was on Leandro Barbosa WAY back in the day. His winning FA bid? $101 dollars. This goes back to the 06/07 season and the Brazilian Blue averaged 18ppg and shot 48%/43% with 1.2 steals per game. Now, because Isaac was drafted at auction for $26 dollars – he will retain that salary when he gets signed this week. So he’s not exactly a cheap keeper option at $31 bucks for next year. So, whoever gets him is likely taking the one year gamble that he can be a stocks monster for them. I believe he goes for a massive amount of FA dollars.

 

 

Players Run the League

 

Lots of articles and tweets about the Ben Simmons situation these days. How he’s maybe even faking his mental health issues so he can get paid but not have to play. I have no idea whether that’s the case, but I do know that many businesses likely have similar concerns on some of their employees as well. But there is really nothing an employer can do about it.

 Will Ben Simmons ultimately get traded? Of course he will. Harden did. Westbrook did. Anthony Davis did. For the most part, if the player says I’ve had enough, they will be moved (as long as they are still good). Sorry Kevin Love, you are stuck in Cleveland. Gone are the days where someone commits to a team for the long term. The 76ers hurt Ben’s feelings after their game 7 loss and now he’s pouting and wants out. While the comment itself is maybe generic enough it’s clear Simmons took it as a shot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxjjIibEyg

You aren’t allowed to say ‘man up’ or ‘suck it up’ anymore. The world has changed.  Not every player is like this – but there definitely seems to be more and more of this in the last few years. So Ben Simmons will get moved ultimately, that’s what he wants and the Sixers want to win and can have a better chance of that by getting good pieces back. They might not get everything they want – but they can get some good pieces to help them win now. And ultimately I’m sure Brussels will be happier than Simmons’ himself when that trade occurs.

 I would say it’s the same thing for Damian Lillard and the Blazers. That whole franchise hinges on whether Lillard says he wants to stay or go. Currently, he’s saying he’s ’10 toes in Portland’ and doesn’t want to go. But if he says he wants out – guess what – they will trade him. They will maximize their return and the world will carry on. But the GM (Neil Olshey) is at the mercy of his star player. The wrinkle in the equation is this connection that Lillard has with Nurkic. Isn’t he a Godfather to Lilliard’s kids or something like that? What happens if PDX trades Lillard? Will Nurkic be the next to want out? He’s a Free Agent this summer so I could see him wanting out if Lillard goes – so that means PDX needs to trade him or risk losing him for nothing. And on the flip side, if Lillard stays, how much do you want to bet that Portland brings back Nurk? How can you let Lillard’s best buddy leave?? If Lillard says bring back Nurkic, what do we think they will do? Neil Olshey can mess around with all the peripheral pieces – but the core of the team is who Lillard wants to be there. Lillard essentially runs the Blazers.

 Milwaukee did all they could to make sure they kept Giannis. They went and traded for Jrue Holiday. They signed/acquired Bobby Portis. They tried to sign Bogdanovic before they were allowed. They bolstered the team to ensure their main guy, the one who would ultimately win them a title, was happy. In reality, Giannis could probably just be the GM and have some assistants go out and do his dirty work for him. Go sign this guy. Or trade for that guy. Giannis can have back room or even on court chats with players about coming to Milwaukee and playing with him. How do you stop that when the players chat or go out for dinner after games? Imagine getting into a beef with Giannis and he says to the GM – I don’t like this guy – I want him gone. What do we think would happen? Giannis essentially runs the Bucks.

 And look at the offseason stuff that goes on between players. Do we really believe that the players, on different teams, don’t talk to each other about coming and joining forces? You could go back summer over summer and look at the deals that are signed at 12:01am (or whatever time free agency opens). LeBron and Bosh had no idea that they were both going to Miami? Kawhi said I’ll come to the Clippers if you get me Paul George – so they did. How did Lonzo, his agent, Bulls front office, and everyone else involved agree to that 4/80 million dollar deal in less than 1 minute?  Big secret – they talked before they were officially allowed to. Sometimes the NBA does something about it – like the Bogdanovic situation the year before in Milwaukee – and sometimes they turn a blind eye. Even looking at the Bogdanovic incident – they didn’t get their man – but they STILL won the title! The reality is that there is communication going on long before the NBA rulebook says it’s allowed. Deals are made. Guys talk. Players recruit players. It’s all just part of the NBA now. The players run the league.