Week 15 - The Targets

In this week 15 post I'm going to look at some of the potential trade targets each JBL team has that could be leveraged to improve their teams for this year or next. With the NBA trade deadline on Feb 10th and the JBL trade deadline on Feb 20th - we are approaching decision time for many JBL squads. I would imagine a few top teams would potentially want to trade their star keepers if it helps them in their title push. Middling teams should want to ensure they finish as high as possible so they can protect their studs for next season. And those teams lower in the JBL standings want to try and climb the ladder but also ensure they have a stud keeper or two for next season. 

So, let's check out what each team might have to offer and whether the team will be a seller or buyer.

Arctic has a number of potential keepers. Kyrie. Jalen Green. Tyler Herro. Jalen Suggs. Kuzma. Love. So many potential options. The goal should be top 8 so he can keep 3 of those guys. As far as trade options, Arctic does have big names that could be sold off if needed. KAT and AD are the big ticket items that a contender may come calling for. The Arctic could be a seller at the deadline

Bangkok has some studly keeper options still with Edwards topping the list. Guys like Herb Jones, Terry Rozier, and Josh Hart are other potential options. The Kok should be buying but will he be willing to sell off Edwards for a bigger fish? 

Bellingham needs to try and get into the 9-12 range so he can keep 2 guys. Currently only Kawhi would be the likely keeper for next season. While there aren't many other obvious stud keepers would the Ham be willing to sell Sabonis or Allen if it meant landing another stud keeper?

Brussels, meet rock and hard place. Until we know what's happening with Ben Simmons we don't know whether they should be buying or selling. There are number of keeper options already on this roster and this squad looks solid to be a 5th to 8th place team at worst. Brussels can decide which way to go by Feb 10th when the 76ers decide what they are doing with Big Ben.

Cali has 2 major chips to play if they choose. Joker and Giannis would be massive additions to any contending team. But if they are moved does that risk Cali falling into the depths where they won't be able to keep any players? Timelord is a stud so you can't risk losing him. And maybe Jokic is worth keeping at $84? Decisions ahead for Cali. 

The Wack injury woes continue. We know Luka will be back in the Wack next season but who will be joining him. Will the Wack go all in or stay the course and hope for a late season title run and 4 keepers?

French is the silent assassin waiting in the wings. No one is talking about this team but he continues to lurk in the shadows. Does he try and move Klay for some help? French's Celtic core of Brown and Tatum will both be heading back into the auction this summer so it will be interesting to see who the next generation of French keepers will be.

Golden is hanging with Brussels in the rock and hard place crowd. Maybe good to enough to push for 4th and likely not bad enough to drop below 8th. So it's 3 keepers for Golden most likely. That said, with SGA, Garland, Giddey, Bridges, and Holmes as likely undervalued options for next season - Golden has too many keeper options and could try consolidating those into better keepers or try and land a big name. Worst case for Golden or Brussels or anyone in this range in the standings - is 5th place. 

Idaho has Zion, Trae and Jamal Murray. Currently, 3 keepers for 2 spots. Now, if Idaho can catch the slumping Seoul squad for 8th then he's off to the races. Idaho also has a number of big ticket items in Harden, Fox, and Booker if he wants to try and improve the squad and add another keeper. 

Juan de Fuca has been in 7th for a few weeks now. Another team that could push for top 4 but likely won't drop below 8th. They already have solid keeper options like Simons, Wagner and Portis so they can go either way here at the deadline.

Maui holds all the cards as the deadline approaches. The lead is hovering around 100 points (or more) on most nights and Maui has the luxury of being in reaction mode. If French or Bangkok upgrade - Maui might have to do the same. For Maui, that would likely be pretty easy as if they made LaMelo or Mobley available I would imagine they would get a kings ransom for either one of those guys. Don't forget Desmond Bane as another keeper option that could be sold for more assets if needed. 

Norfolk needs to get out of the basement or else it's not even worth discussing keeper options on this roster. That said, I don't see any super bargains for this lot if they do make it to 13th. The challenge would be to improve the squad to get out of the basement while also acquiring a stud keeper. Very difficult to do.

Seoul feels like the 8th place team this season. A couple teams could push him for that spot but so far he's clinging to #8. With Morant and Barnes and maybe GTJ as keepers they would be in good shape for next season already. If they wanted to upgrade or add another stud keeper they have the assets with Siakam, Jimmy Buckets, and Zach Lavine to use as bait.

Vancouver made a late season charge last year to get into 8th and get his 3 keepers. Can they do that this season? Maybe. Cade Cunningham is the headline keeper here and should be the franchise cornerstone. Or do they sell him to try and improve the squad and get into the top 8? But if they did that - who are the 3 keepers? Sometimes it's better to have the 1 stud keeper than 3 average ones.

There you have it. A quick look around the JBL with who could do what as the JBL trade deadline is just 3 weeks away. 

Week 14 - Who can win it...

 In this late week 14 Chronicles edition I thought I would take a moment to look at just which JBL teams can still be title contenders. And yes, it's based on projections and and what I think is going to happen. Despite views to the contrary, I do not control injuries or covid so these could be way off base in a week or two. And of course, I don't know if any of these teams are going to make any earth shattering trades to overhaul their rosters - so I've got to go with what I see as of today.

First, let's talk about those teams that aren't going to win the title. I'm going to draw the line, conservatively, at 8th and lower. We're over halfway home and if you're sitting in the sub-700 point range, I just don't see any sort of improvement or even massive trade that would push any of these teams over another 7-8 teams to win the title.

So that leaves 6 teams then I'm saying still have a chance. But let's face it, 3 of those teams are going to need some major luck and likely additional moves.

Juan de Fuca is in 7th and almost 400 points out of 1st place. They are 13th in ATO and 10th in FG% and Steals. That's probably too many flaws to make up at this stage of the game. That said, Juan is well positioned for 3 keepers for next season with Wagner, Simons, and Portis as almost locks as well as Thomas the Tank Bryant's potential if the Wizards ever clear up their Center rotation. 

Brussels was in 6th when I wrote this and his season has always hinged on the return of Ben Simmons. While it's still possible our defending champ would get less than 40 games from him and I'm thinking it might be too little too late. Brussels is 11th in scoring and 9th in 3PT% and we know Simmons won't be helping in the 3PT category. The other challenge will be the lack of FA dollars. The Brussels squad would have to rely on trades as Timmy has $0 FA dollars left to spend. 

Chilliwack is in 5th and has been burned by injuries as of late. All of the goods acquired in the Seoul trade arrived damaged and now there is real concern over Brogdon's achilles. That said, I do see room for 100+ additional points across multiple categories. So that gets the Wack into the 1030 range or so. Can they go higher? Maybe? But he needs some healthy bodies real soon. I do give Wack the edge on finishing top 4 because of his room for growth in multiple areas. 

Golden is currently in 4th but it feels like this is about the maximum points for this squad. 13th in 3PT% and 12th in blocks with little to no room for growth probably means the excitement for me will be chasing 4th and the 4 keepers that come with that finishing spot but likely finishing in the worst spot - 5th - and only getting 3 keepers and just 5 ping pong balls. 

So, that said, the realistic contenders are French, Bangkok and Maui. To no one's surprise.

French struggles with 3PT% but maybe the return of Klay can help out there. I see lots of room for French to gain points and it looks like they could get to the 1150 range if all goes well. They just need a good run of health as they sit mid-pack in man games for the season. You never count out 4 time champs. And remember, for 7 straight years, French has finished 1st or 2nd - so don't rule out that streak being extended.

Bangkok vs Maui. It's been that way for several weeks now. Which means, if that was the case, we will have another NEW JBL champion this season. Both franchises have been around forever (Maui 31 seasons and Bangkok 26 seasons). Bangkok does everything really well except for scoring (7th) and blocks (11th). That said, they have the players to go up in both categories. I think Kok can get into that 1150 range as well with this group. There is some room for growth in a couple categories. Bangkok needs Mitchell back from his concussion and Ayton to stay healthy and a continued good run for his very good role players (Strus, Jones, Hartenstein, Hart, O'Neale). Can they do it? Yes, they could. Also, Kok has the Anthony Edwards chip to play if he really wants to go all in.

Maui has been in 1st place since week 2. They've suffered from injuries and covid and yet they continue to shine. This is tough stretch for the Ribs with Lonzo out for 6-8 weeks, Lowry is out, Bane is in protocols and Draymond is still sidelined. I think Maui peaks at 1287 potentially. I also think, if things don't go well, we could see Maui in the 1160's range.  What Maui has done so far has been nothing short of remarkable. What a draft. Their worst category is FG% and he's 7th!!! And, like the Kok, Maui has 3 keeper chips to play if he wants to bolster the squad. I can only imagine the haul of players LaMelo or Mobley would get him. Or, to a lesser extent, Desmond Bane has been spectacular this season and is certainly worth a look as a keeper. 

So there you have it. A 3 horse race is on. Does anyone else try to make a move to bolster their chances? Do the big 3 sell off their keepers to try and improve their chances? I'm looking forward to watching the race over the last half of the season. 

Finally, remember the JBL keeper trade deadline is NBA All Star Sunday (February 20th) at midnight PST. If you want to keep/protect someone for next season they must be on your roster by this date. Anyone who was drafted at Auction is eligible for protection (so guys like Kawhi and Murray and others can be protected). And any Free Agent signed during the course of the season fall under Section 4.7 of the constitution...

4.7 All free agents signed during the course of the JBL/NBA season must play a minimum of 20 regular season NBA games in order to be eligible for protection the following year (unless the player was drafted at Auction. If a player was drafted at auction he is eligible to be protected)

So - make sure you are loaded up with potential keepers for next season too. 

Enjoy the title race!!!

Week 13 - Golden self reflection

Changing up the week 13 vibe a bit. Moving away from a global JBL look and just focusing in on my Showers squad – that I love – but also hate. A little self reflection this week in Golden.

What went wrong in Golden? While the season is only 50% over, this Golden team has some fatal flaws that cannot be rectified at this point in the season. Trying to recover from horrible performances in both 3PT% and BLKS is virtually impossible at this stage of the season.

So, I wanted to dive into the big issues – and let these serve as reminders for other JBL teams heading into next year’s auction. Diversification and luck.

And I will start by saying that this Golden team actually isn’t that bad. At the time I’m writing this, 1^st in scoring in the JBL.  3^rd in ATO and top 6 in 3 other categories. The issues – 12^th in blocks and 13^th in 3PT%.

So, for starters, the big men in Golden have all been disappointments.

Nurkic has been hot and cold all year. He’s averaging 13 and 10 which is decent but pre-season projections had him blocking at least 1 shot per game. Instead, he’s at 0.5 blocks/game – which is 20 blocks in 38 games. And hey, 20 blocks is OK, but here’s a list of some other players and their block totals.

Facu Campazzo – who we all know is likely under 6 feet tall – he has 19 blocks.

Mike Muscala – a big white guy who barely plays – he has 22 blocks.

De’Anthony Melton has 22 blocks

Devin Vassell, Patrick Beverley and Drew Eubanks all have more blocks thank Nurk.

The point is, Nurk is 7 feet tall and known as the Bosnian Beast.  The sad part is that there are roughly 90 NBA players, most of whom are shorter than Nurk and don’t have nearly as intimidating a nickname – all have more blocks than him. I’ve had Nurk for 3 seasons now and he’s going back to Auction next season. I love the guy because he’s a Blazer (for now) but I can’t see him being a draft day target in the future.

Then there’s Richaun Holmes. He’s coming off a season where he averaged 14 and 8 with 1.6 blocks per game. This year, he’s only averaging 1 block per game and he’s missed a lot of games. Another case where I was expecting more blocks and I’m just not getting them.

And finally, there’s Beef Stew, Isaiah Stewart. Yes, he’s averaging 1.3 blocks per game but that’s the same as he averaged last year. I was expecting the breakout year and more minutes for him and he simply hasn’t progressed in year 2.

So, my 3 Centers have all underachieved. Or at least they haven’t been as good as projections or expectations. Couple that with my duplication of resources (Hayward, Middleton, and Ingram) that all don’t block (or steal much) and I was doomed in the blocks category. And, as we all know, it’s not like you can find an impact shot-blocker on the waiver wire these days. Instead of having 3 small forwards that all do the same things – I should have gone after another shot-blocking big man.

My other glaring weakness is 3PT% and again, coming out of the auction, I thought my team would be quite strong in this category. Boy, was I wrong.

Look at the difference a year can make with some of these guys…

Miles Bridges shot 40% from downtown last year – this year he is just 32% on way more attempts. Double doozy.

SGA shot 42% last year and this year he’s an atrocious 28%. Yes, that’s a 14% drop! Fourteen percent!!!

While he only played 10 games in Golden, Lillard did his best to sabotage the 3PT% category shooting just 24% on almost 10 attempts per game.

Beverley has been 26% from downtown in his 16 Golden games.

And then you have those couple guys on the roster that take the odd 3 pointer here and there– which in turn can add up to something really bad. Stewart and Nurkic are a combined 10/57 from deep (17%). So you see the odd 0/1 here and there and before you know it - your 3PT% is destroyed. 

Oh plus, you can add in the rookie sensation Giddey’s 29% from downtown and this team is doomed from deep.

While teams can still be successful in this category with a couple bad 3PT shooters (ie. Chilliwack is 3^rd in 3PT% and they have Westbrook jacking at 28%) – you can’t have three quarters of your roster all shooting career lows from deep.  And it’s not like I can say – well, I’ll just trade away those shitty shooters – ummmm, that’s the bulk of the squad. HAHA.

Anyways, Golden is still looking like a 5^th to 8^th place finisher this season. And who knows, maybe we can push for a top 4 finish with some luck. That doesn’t appear to be in the cards – but who knows - stranger things have happened.

That's it for this week. My self reflection is over and Golden will carry on the good fight. Maybe the boys can get hot and we can make some noise and play spoiler down the stretch here.  Bye for another week. 

Week 12 - The Trades have started

Week 12 was an exciting one because Seoul decided to turn the JBL on its head. And I for one, love it. Let's review.

Seoul kicked things off by acquiring one of the best rookie keepers in Scottie Barnes. He also received the one-trick pony RJ Barrett and the soon to be free agent fodder Hamidou Diallo. Seoul parted ways with Ayton, Scary Terry and ultimate glue guy Josh Hart. This is a clear win for Bangkok here as it strengthens his squad as he attempts to chase down Maui. But, this is also a clear win for Seoul. Getting Barnes is a big win for the 22/23 Brothers squad.

Then we saw Seoul flip the always injured Zion to Idaho for Rudy Gobert. Did you know Zion's early career trajectory (games played wise) is comparable to Greg Oden? Not saying he's going to be out of the league soon but...Zion is a big man and he has foot and knee injuries. Hmmm. I get why Idaho did this deal. He got the big man and it was the right thing to do. Take the risk that Zion returns. Why not? Load up on keepers because relying on 'he'll be back soon' Victor Oladipo as a keeper was never a good idea. The last time Oladipo was good he had Darren Collison, Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson as teammates. 

Seoul acquired Gobert for one reason. To flip him to Chilliwack immediately as part of an 8 player deal. The key prize for Seoul was Ja Morant. Another clear win for a trading partner with Seoul as the Wack becomes a real threat now adding Gobert, Brogdon, and the underrated Will Barton and Finney-Smith. The Wack solidify's himself as a title contender and almost assures himself of a top 4 finish (and 4 keepers). While pairing Morant and Luka together as keepers for next season would have been nice - when you are close - you have to go for it.

The top 4 teams are very clearly Maui, French, Chilliwack and Bangkok. What order will they finish - to be determined. That said, the Brussels squad could challenge the top 4 if they get Bam back soon and IF Ben Simmons finally gets traded. So, I'm not counting out Brussels just yet. The rest of us...we won't be top 4 without MAJOR roster adjustments. 

Seoul just might be the biggest winner here. Why? Because he gets Morant and Barnes for next season. Done deal. Godfather projections still have Seoul as a strong contender for 8th place. Which would mean 3 keepers. That's a bonus. But worst case, even if Seoul finishes 9th to 12th - he still gets Ja and Scottie. WINNER. 

While it's clear Bangkok and Chilliwack were the winners of the trades - it guarantees them nothing. These trades did not assure them of a JBL title. So, while they did the right thing going all in, it could be all for naught. But again, when you are in the hunt, you have to go for it. 

Idaho did the right thing too. Despite the bravado and eternal optimism, this Idaho squad is not a title contender. They could be a top 8 contender which would mean 3 keepers. And despite his faith in Oladipo, Idaho's best keepers currently are Zion, Jamal Murray, and Trae Young. I was going to say Darius Bazley but that's just cruel. 

So, just for fun, and because it creates some discussion points...here's how I would rank the moves made this week.

1. Seoul - clear winner getting Morant and Barnes for next season

2. Bangkok - currently in 2nd, closing the gap, and acquired 3 strong pieces

3. Chilliwack - Big acquisitions to bolster the squad. KD, Luka, Gobert. The Wack has his big 3 model back in place. But this time his role players are MUCH stronger. 

4. Idaho - the great risk taker lands the biggest fish, literally, in hopes he can be a healthy monster for next season. 

But really, Seoul and Idaho did what they should have done - acquire strong keepers for next season. I've preached it here many times - if you are not winning the JBL title or finishing top 4 (and getting 4 keepers) - you should be loading up on cheap rookies and strong keepers to build for the next season. And if you have a shot at the elusive JBL title you go all in for it. Remember, it's year 31 and there have only been 8 different JBL champs. Furthermore, 24 of the 30 JBL titles (80%) have been won by Golden, Seoul, Chilliwack and French. We've seen over 30 JBL owners over the years - so it is an elusive and prestigious title. 

These 4 teams, 2 contending and 2 rebuilding, did exactly what they were supposed to do this week. Well done to all. 

For the rest of us, the keeper trade deadline is Sunday, February 20th. So if you want to protect a player for next season he must be on your roster by midnight PST on that date. What's exciting about this year's All-Star break is the NBA trade deadline actually falls BEFORE the JBL keeper trade deadline. Usually, it's the other way around. So, we should see a number of NBA trades before our deadline which should mean a number of NBA players find new homes and maybe bigger roles. I'm looking forward to see what shakes down.

OK, that's it for this week. Well done to our 4 trading teams. Love to see it.