In this late week 14 Chronicles edition I thought I would take a moment to look at just which JBL teams can still be title contenders. And yes, it's based on projections and and what I think is going to happen. Despite views to the contrary, I do not control injuries or covid so these could be way off base in a week or two. And of course, I don't know if any of these teams are going to make any earth shattering trades to overhaul their rosters - so I've got to go with what I see as of today.
First, let's talk about those teams that aren't going to win the title. I'm going to draw the line, conservatively, at 8th and lower. We're over halfway home and if you're sitting in the sub-700 point range, I just don't see any sort of improvement or even massive trade that would push any of these teams over another 7-8 teams to win the title.
So that leaves 6 teams then I'm saying still have a chance. But let's face it, 3 of those teams are going to need some major luck and likely additional moves.
Juan de Fuca is in 7th and almost 400 points out of 1st place. They are 13th in ATO and 10th in FG% and Steals. That's probably too many flaws to make up at this stage of the game. That said, Juan is well positioned for 3 keepers for next season with Wagner, Simons, and Portis as almost locks as well as Thomas the Tank Bryant's potential if the Wizards ever clear up their Center rotation.
Brussels was in 6th when I wrote this and his season has always hinged on the return of Ben Simmons. While it's still possible our defending champ would get less than 40 games from him and I'm thinking it might be too little too late. Brussels is 11th in scoring and 9th in 3PT% and we know Simmons won't be helping in the 3PT category. The other challenge will be the lack of FA dollars. The Brussels squad would have to rely on trades as Timmy has $0 FA dollars left to spend.
Chilliwack is in 5th and has been burned by injuries as of late. All of the goods acquired in the Seoul trade arrived damaged and now there is real concern over Brogdon's achilles. That said, I do see room for 100+ additional points across multiple categories. So that gets the Wack into the 1030 range or so. Can they go higher? Maybe? But he needs some healthy bodies real soon. I do give Wack the edge on finishing top 4 because of his room for growth in multiple areas.
Golden is currently in 4th but it feels like this is about the maximum points for this squad. 13th in 3PT% and 12th in blocks with little to no room for growth probably means the excitement for me will be chasing 4th and the 4 keepers that come with that finishing spot but likely finishing in the worst spot - 5th - and only getting 3 keepers and just 5 ping pong balls.
So, that said, the realistic contenders are French, Bangkok and Maui. To no one's surprise.
French struggles with 3PT% but maybe the return of Klay can help out there. I see lots of room for French to gain points and it looks like they could get to the 1150 range if all goes well. They just need a good run of health as they sit mid-pack in man games for the season. You never count out 4 time champs. And remember, for 7 straight years, French has finished 1st or 2nd - so don't rule out that streak being extended.
Bangkok vs Maui. It's been that way for several weeks now. Which means, if that was the case, we will have another NEW JBL champion this season. Both franchises have been around forever (Maui 31 seasons and Bangkok 26 seasons). Bangkok does everything really well except for scoring (7th) and blocks (11th). That said, they have the players to go up in both categories. I think Kok can get into that 1150 range as well with this group. There is some room for growth in a couple categories. Bangkok needs Mitchell back from his concussion and Ayton to stay healthy and a continued good run for his very good role players (Strus, Jones, Hartenstein, Hart, O'Neale). Can they do it? Yes, they could. Also, Kok has the Anthony Edwards chip to play if he really wants to go all in.
Maui has been in 1st place since week 2. They've suffered from injuries and covid and yet they continue to shine. This is tough stretch for the Ribs with Lonzo out for 6-8 weeks, Lowry is out, Bane is in protocols and Draymond is still sidelined. I think Maui peaks at 1287 potentially. I also think, if things don't go well, we could see Maui in the 1160's range. What Maui has done so far has been nothing short of remarkable. What a draft. Their worst category is FG% and he's 7th!!! And, like the Kok, Maui has 3 keeper chips to play if he wants to bolster the squad. I can only imagine the haul of players LaMelo or Mobley would get him. Or, to a lesser extent, Desmond Bane has been spectacular this season and is certainly worth a look as a keeper.
So there you have it. A 3 horse race is on. Does anyone else try to make a move to bolster their chances? Do the big 3 sell off their keepers to try and improve their chances? I'm looking forward to watching the race over the last half of the season.
Finally, remember the JBL keeper trade deadline is NBA All Star Sunday (February 20th) at midnight PST. If you want to keep/protect someone for next season they must be on your roster by this date. Anyone who was drafted at Auction is eligible for protection (so guys like Kawhi and Murray and others can be protected). And any Free Agent signed during the course of the season fall under Section 4.7 of the constitution...
4.7 All free agents signed during the course of the JBL/NBA season must play a minimum of 20 regular season NBA games in order to be eligible for protection the following year (unless the player was drafted at Auction. If a player was drafted at auction he is eligible to be protected)
So - make sure you are loaded up with potential keepers for next season too.
Enjoy the title race!!!
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