Week 16 - Expansion and Free Agents

This week I thought I would look at JBL expansion opportunities. I know, I know, it’s hard to improve on perfection after 31 years but it’s always good to discuss new ideas or thoughts on how we can make it even better (if that’s even possible).

A recent JBL survey around expansion showed that 8 teams (57%) were in favour of expanding to 15 teams while 6 teams (43%) were not in favour of expanding. And, as we’ve discussed many times, the biggest drawback to expansion, for some teams, is the belief that the Free Agent pool is already pretty slim and adding another team would only further dilute the FA pool.

For me, I love that I have to work the wire and look for FA gems. Sometimes you hit and sometimes you miss. I found Brunson, Caruso, Pat Bev, Otto Porter, Grayson Allen, Garry Harris, Ayo Dosunmo, and now Isaiah Jackson all on the wire this year. Of course, I’ve also had Saben Lee, Isaiah Roby, Xavier Tillman and Gary Payton rostered a few weeks here and there. So I fully appreciate the crapshoot that is JBL free agent signings. But to say you can’t find any free agent gems is simply not true. And in most cases, you aren’t looking at a free agent as someone you need to get 50 games out of – you just need them for 1-2 weeks typically while so-and-so gets healthy.

So how could we get to adding a 15^th team? I’m not saying we MUST add a 15^th team but how could we make it work? Let me throw some ideas out.

Current structure: 14 teams, 16 players, 224 players total

Option 1:  15 teams, 15 players per team – 225 total players

I know this probably isn’t the best idea as it would essentially remove the IR slot from our current roster and with all the injuries and Covid cases it’s been tough to field 12 healthy bodies each week.

I have been a supporter of this notion because it prevents hoarding of players. Guys like Jamal Murray, James Wiseman, Jonathan Isaac, TJ Warren, and even Kyrie Irving – if you didn’t have this extra IR slot would you be as inclined to hold onto them? This puts 14 players back into the free agent pool right away. 

Option 2: 15 teams, 15 players per team – 225 total players – but you start 10 players each week (instead of the current 12)

Now this fundamentally changes the JBL active rosters as we’ve always started 12 players. Historical JBL records would likely never be matched. Do we care?

We could go with 3-5 guards, 3-5 forwards, and 1-3 centers to get to your 10 starters each week. You could have 5 bench players regardless of injured status.

It would be 225 total players so pretty much the same number as today but we get one more team into the mix.

Personally, while it works, it’s not for me as I am a traditionalist when it comes to the 12 starters and comparing the current season to our historical JBL records. I throw it out here but I am not a fan. 

 

Option 3: 15 teams, 17 players per team – 255 players total. (12 active, 5 bench)

With back to back years of covid and a lot of injuries and resting, what if we extended our benches 1 extra player? Yes, we have to go deeper at the draft but it also means that you can hang on and wait for injured guys to return. Or take a flier on Moses Moody in case GSW trades him at the deadline or snag an extra rookie and see if he pans out or whatever the case may be. 

The focus shifts more to the draft and maybe less on the week to week search for free agents. Draft well (like Maui) and you don’t need to sign Free Agents. This option could also see more teams hoarding injured players for cheap dollars. I’m sure Benny will love that aspect. But I guess the question is really how impactful this has been over the years? This year guys like Wall, TJ Warren, Jon Isaac, Kawhi, Wiseman, Jamal Murray and some others have all been stashed away on people’s IR slots. But how many will be impactful for next season (if they even get protected at all)? Obviously Kawhi and Murray appear to be massive bargains but will it play out that way?

This option, which would be 5 bench spots, regardless of injury status, also provides more flexibility for those who want to hang onto injured guys or for those who want 5 healthy bench options (instead of the 3 currently) to rotate into their lineups.

 

Option 4: 15 teams, 16 players per team – 240 players.

Wait, what? Isn’t this just pure expansion with the same roster limits we have today? Why yes, yes it is.

And I’m discussing it because I think the notion that that free agent pool is shallow, while maybe true on the surface and at first glance, isn’t actually true at all. Maybe it’s our perceptions that these waiver wire guys aren’t that good. I think the reality is that if you took each JBL’s team worst player (or one of many options in some cases) and created a team (14 players) and put that team up against 14 free agents – who would be the better squad??

Well, you know me….I’m all in for that analysis.

So here’s what I did. Here’s the JBL scrap heap squad. Don’t be offended on the player I picked as many teams could had multiple choices for the ‘Scrap Heap’ team. . This is for fun. And it’s on a per game basis.

JBL Scraps:   Rondo, K.Edwards, Beasley, Stephenson, T.Davis, Bagley, Klay, I.Jackson, Quickley, Ross, Gay, NAW, Goga, Vincent

 

JBL Free Agents:  Payton, Otto, Tyus Jones, JaVale McGee, Grayson Allen, Kyle Anderson, Max Strus, Crowder, Dedmon, Howard, Caruso, Jeff Green, Danny Green, Cory Joseph.

 

So how did those 14 players’ totals on each team stack up against each other on a per game basis?

 

Points:             9.0 to 8.1 for the Scrap Heap

Rebounds:      4.1 to 3.4 for the FA’s

Steals:              0.8 to 0.6 for the FA’s

Blocks:             0.4 to 0.4 - even

ATO:                1.920 to 1.610 for the FA’s

FG%:                48.5% to 41.6% for the FA’s

3PT%:              38.3% to 33.1% for the FA’s

 

So what does that really prove? That the team of FA’s is better than the JBL scraps? Does it show that there are some valuable players in the Free Agent pool if you look real close? We’re never going to find a 20ppg guy or someone who blocks 2 shots a game on the waiver wire this late in the season. But, throughout the year, there were some fantastic free agent finds.

I was thinking about expansion and maybe we need to add more money to the $130 Free Agent budget? If the pool was ‘shallow’ would adding more dollars allow teams to rotate players more often? I don’t think adding any money accomplishes anything as most teams still have money remaining and the best free agents seem to be acquired for less than $10 bucks. Adding more money means larger bids and therefore more $10 dollar FA’s. Currently, the best FA’s have all been found with under $10 dollar bids. You don't need more FA dollars to find good FA's.

And looking at some of those Free Agent stars I’m amazed at how many of them were snagged off the wire for just a couple of bucks. A quick journey how each team has spent their $130 Free Agent budget this year.

 

Arctic - $18 dollars remaining – spent $40 and then another $50 to acquire John Wall twice. And he still isn’t playing.

Bangkok - $38 remaining – uncovered gems like Herb Jones $2, Luke Kennard $4, Isaiah Hartenstein $2 and others. Successful FA finds have contributed greatly to the Kok’s title aspirations.

Bellingham - $14 remaining – big bids on Huerter $28, THT $23, Hunter $28 and Coffey $21 but the star acquisition was surprisingly Malik Monk for $2

Brussels - $0 remaining – he’s spent all of it and his best pick ups were cheap signings like Brandon Clarke $1, Okungwu $1 and Yurtseven $4. Maxey for $52 ended up in Arctic to complete the trade for Alperen Sengun.

Cali - $84 remaining – the most FA dollars remaining of any team. Best pickup was Lu Dort for $17.

Chilliwack - $68 remaining – Carmelo for $20 and Patty Mills for $1 have been prudent pickups.

French - $9 remaining – that $110 on Jonathan Isaac hasn’t exactly panned out yet. The real star was Vanderbilt for $3 bucks!!!

Golden - $41 remaining – Brunson for $16 was very good while I’ve also had some good numbers from Caruso, Pat Bev, Allen, Otto, and Dosunmu. Golden’s FA plans are always dollar here, dollar there.

Idaho - $0 remaining – 33 Free Agent signings and the money is all gone. Idaho did his best to try and find the hot hand.

Juan - $9 remaining – some quality signings but the gem is Anfernee Simons for $1

Maui - $57 remaining – only 4 free agent signings (and no trades) all season reinforces the notion that he had one of the best JBL drafts ever

Norfolk - $23 remaining– 23 FA signings so far so the Doctor is trying. Cedi Osman $4 has certainly been serviceable.

Seoul - $15 remaining – Coby White $30 was a solid acquisition. Little $4 was useful until he got hurt. The good FA’s Seoul has used are always productive while on his bench

Vancouver - $51 remaining – many guys (Vincent, Morris, Mann) have been able to chip in while waiting for regulars to get back from injury

 

So there you have it, my discussion points on potential expansion and free agents.  Is adding one more team and eliminating 15-17 players from the Free Agent pool really that big a deal? I honestly don’t think so. Between weekly projections or the past 7/14/21 day stats on CBS alone can provide insight into who’s hot and maybe worthy of a pickup. Doug’s Stats is there for others and I’m sure many others have their favourite websites to help them with stats and numbers.

From the 4 options above I prefer Option 4 (just add another team with current rules) as it’s what we know and it’s just one more team. I really think there are impactful free agents on our wire right now – but that’s just my opinion. Failing that (which is already did 8-6) I really like option 3 (17 players per roster) as it just adds that roster spot at Auction which means 1 extra player to take a chance on at the draft. Having 5 bench players, regardless of injury status or not, would allow more week to week roster flexibility if there are any injuries. We’ve all had weeks this season where we have only 6-7 healthy bodies. With 5 bench spots (instead of 3 bench and 1 IR) – teams could fill those 5 spots with injured players if they wanted or have 5 healthy reserves for rotational options. The more I write about it, the more I like it.

 

Anyways, that’s all for now…maybe it’s worth another poll and discussion…