Sunday, January 31, 2010
Sunday musings...
Gasol continues to be the #1 keeper out there in my books. In his last 10 games he's averaging 17 and 10 with 19 steals and 21 blocks while shooting 58% from the field. He's a stud. If I was Boston, I'd be taking Gasol over Nene.
I wonder if Seoul would be interested in a Nene for Chris Bosh deal? I wonder if I really would? I'm still in the hunt but I'm going to need a lot of things to go right if I want to catch Juan or Chilliwack. The downside for my Golden squad at the moment is a real lack of keepers for next season. I really only have Luol Deng (keeper value $17 bucks) that makes sense. On the year, he's 18 and 7 with 43 steals and 47 blocks while shooting 46 and 43 and he has a positive ATO. And with a tendex over 18 (more than his salary) he has to be considered. However, after Deng, the cupboard is pretty bare. I could consider Casspi but things need to get sorted out in Sac-town. Omar would have to be a starter for me to consider keeping him. Which brings me back to Nene. If I can't win the title this year - why shouldn't I try to acquire Nene? Do I really care if I finish 3rd, 4th or 7th? I've always been an all or nothing type of Fantasy owner. No one cares who finished 2nd or 3rd (unless of course you've never won a title and cling to the old "Well, I have finished 3rd two times you know"). It really doesn't matter does it? So, if you can't win this year - why not focus on next year...and Nene (or Gasol) would certainly do that. The biggest hurdle I see - the salary cap issues in Seoul. Chilliwack could handle a big salary player - but does it make him any better?
As I quickly check the JBL live scoreboard this morning I see Chilliwack is now the JBL leader!
There were a couple of late trades this week as well...
1. Brussels traded Granger to Bangkok for Chris Kaman. Makes sense for both teams and Tim gathers cheap talent for next season. And Rick hopes that Granger's "off" season can be saved in beautiful Bangkok. Moving Kaman's horrendous ATO is a big bonus for Rick but the %'s than Danny brings are equally bad. I mean he's shooting 40 FG% and 35% from downtown. He could improve on those though. Big drop in rebounding for Bangkok as well.
2. Brussels then traded Jeff Green to Bangkok for Jason Thompson. This trade was within an hour of Brussels email the league commish advising he was aware he was under the $200 salary cap floor and would make the necessary moves to get over the cap floor. Jason Thompson has struggled as of late but his inflated $24 dollar salary made him very attractive. Plus, it's not like he's horrible. But he is in a bit of a funk. He's 13 and 9 with 44 blocks. Not too shabby. Bangkok acquires another versatile forward who is also having an 'off' season in Jeff Green. He's the 3rd option in OKC and is averaging 14 and 6. He has also chipped in 47 steals and 39 blocks. His downside, 29% from behind the arc and he takes a lot of them.
3. Brussels traded John Salmons to Idaho for Roy Hibbert --- for 9 minutes. Then an email was sent to the league office requesting the trade be reversed as Brussels hit the wrong button. OK, I'll buy it. But how long should the JBL owners have to declare, "I hit the wrong button"? I'm not saying that either of these deals (Lebron) that that didn't happen...I'm just wondering what the limit should be. If I "accept" a deal at 11pm on Saturday night I should know right away because of the email confirmation that the deal went through. Correct? So what if I don't check my email and then Sunday morning I realize, holy cow, I hit the wrong button. So, now 10 hours later is it (A) I hit the wrong button or (B) I slept on it and I don't like the deal for me. I think, it the latter case, it will take an email from both owners to reverse that deal. In the first case, I think 10-15 minutes is adequate and the owner requesting the reversal must advise the other owner. And again, in both these cases, there was NO argument from Bangkok or Idaho.
So, what direction does Golden take in the next 14 days? And think about this JBL owners -- the current 3rd place team is actually considering making moves towards next season...
If I am going to challenge Chilliwack and Juan I will need to improve in 3PT%, ATO, and steals. How do I do it? I was hoping Chris Duhon would be a possibility. Turns out he's worse than I thought. Yes, his ATO in week 15 has been good (28:2) but his shooting has been equally brutal (3/14). So, do I play him? Drop him? Bench him? I don't know. His 3PT% has been ugly too (2/9) so he only helps me in ATO but hurts me everywhere else. I've tried moving a forward who is 16 and 5, shoots 55%, and has 39 blocks - but there is no interest. On paper he sounds pretty good. But then you tell people he's Carl Landry and no one wants the guy. Oh well.
I could consider a big shake up and try to improve for this season while looking at next year as well. That type of move would be a Bosh for Nene or Bosh for Gasol type of trade. But I haven't looked at the numbers so I don't know if it's even worth my while let alone those teams. I can see why Seoul would want Bosh as Philly Woo is currently 9th in scoring and could move up 60-80 points with Bosh's big scoring numbers. But I would also lose close to 500 points in total scoring as Bosh is 24ppg and Nene is 14ppg. But then again, do I care if I finish 2nd or 7th? The biggest problem I have making a deal with Seoul - salary cap issues.
And what about Bosh for Marc Gasol? Why would Benny do this? He would gain in PTS and REBS - that's it. Is it worth it for him? He would probably gain 40 pts in scoring as he would catch Idaho and Arctic. But he would lose in steals and blocks and ATO...so this deal would never happen...unless I added something to it. Anyways...something to think about.
Our big keeper deadline is Feb 14th and I will be in Orlando at that time. So, I'm not sure how much I will be online during that day for last minute deals. With the midnight PST deadline I have a feeling I will be up a little later than usual....good times ahead.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Holy Crapola
I was warned about this monster trade via Timbo in the afternoon...when he said that Juan de Fuca just won the JBL. Once he texted me the details of the trade - I'm probably going to have to agree. But I do have some comments...
Juan CLEARLY got the better of this deal. He gets Okafor/Parker AND Monta Ellis. He gives up Brook Lopez, Jose Calderon AND Earl Watson. OK, seriously, was Earl Watson the key to this deal? Would it have gone down without him included in the package?? This is almost a 3 for 1 deal as Calderon is a shell of his former self. Anyways, on the surface we think HOLY COW this is sooo one-sided - and it is. However, the obvious category wins for Juan de Fuca really have no bearing on the current standings. We say wow, look at all the scoring and rebounds Juan gains. Well, actually, they're already 1st in both categories so he gains 0 points. Yes, Juan gains in steals and could move up 3-4 cspots adding Monta to his mix. Juan didn't gain any blocks as Brook has 85 and Okafor has 75. What about ATO? Did he really gain enough to move up? I haven't crunched the numbers so I don't really know. FG%? I'm assuming so. 3PT%? I don't think so as Monta jacks them up for 30%. So what did Juan really gain in here? We know for sure he has PTS and REBs wrapped up - but he did anyways. Let me say that Juan de Fuca is the clear favorite (at this point) to win the JBL title but this trade doesn't help them as much as it may appear. As for Idaho, with that bunch of players he's putting out there now he will be lucky to remain in 9th place. His goal is clear - he wants Lopez and Jennings for 10/11. Can he avoid falling in the standings though? We'll see.
And I see French and Brussels hooked up on a 3 for 1 deal. French is taking the chance on Kevin Martin and gave up Salmons, JR Smith, and Jonny Flynn. I can see this from both sides. French is hoping KMart can find his 20+ scoring form again while Brussels desperately needed depth and potential keeper(Flynn). Immediate help on its way for Brussels while French has to hope Martin turns it around.
Last night, after the Woo trade debacle, I spent about 30 minutes on the phone with Tricky Dick. We discussed the Woo blunder by hitting accept instead of reject. This has happened before in the JBL and Woo called me within 20 seconds of me reading the email that Lebron had been traded for David Lee and Richard Hamilton. When I read it, I knew it had to be a mistake. And it was. Even Rick had a chuckle over it - for a second or two anyways.
Rick and I discussed the JBL, the state of his team, the value of players, the value of keepers, life, Woo, trade offers, and other random things over the half hour. Awesome chat. Really enjoyed it. Unfortunately (for Rick), I wasn't willing to part with my guys and he wasn't willing to part with his. I think right now Rick is going through the classic phase when you over-value your own players. We all do it. I do it. You do it. The guys on your team, because they are on your team, are worth more than the what the rest of the league think their worth. Rick has a little bit of this right now (in my opinion). If he can get past it, then the trades will come.
Rick has the envious position of having 5 quality keepers to choose from. What he has to realize is that even if he wins the JBL title he can only keep 4 of them at most. So, he may as well move one of them anyways. In my books, Curry and Evans wouldn't go anywhere, they both appear to be studs in the making. Kaman, Lee, and Westbrook should be up for grabs though for the best offers. Lee seems like a good keeper but he does have his drawbacks. Namely, someone please tell me what Lee will average in NY next year (if he's even there still)? What if he stays a Knick and they sign Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson and one more guy? Now what will Lee average? What if the Knicks get Lebron? Now what does Lee average? It's an unknown for sure. A little bit of the same logic can be used on Kaman....what effect does Blake Griffin have on Kaman's numbers? Does Camby return? How do the 3 co-exist? Can they co-exist? And Westbrook's 2 biggest drawbacks are FG% and 3PT%. The kid is a stud and the #2 option in OKC right now. He has good ATO, can steal, rebounds well for a PG and can score. But he can't shoot a lick and this is the 2nd year with that trend. So, can he learn to shoot? What does OKC do this off season? So Rick has the keepers - but the ones he should move all come with question marks. I made an offer for Westbrook. Rick doesn't think it's enough. My question to him is - has he had a better offer for Westbrook? I don't know the answer to that. Does the offer I made him improve his team? That's up to him to decide - but I know it does address one of his weaknesses. Anyways, Rick has 2 weeks to decide the direction of his team for this season and next. With Juan's recent trade can anyone catch them? Should Rick be holding on to all his keepers?
Man, what a day....
Monday, January 25, 2010
More Thoughts
- We saw a couple of big trades over the weekend. Let me tell you my thoughts on those. Golden trades Amare and Channing Frye to Boston for Dirk Nowitzki. If there was ever a case to be made that an NBA player knows where he plays in the JBL - Frye is the case. He was very much average (at best) for his short stay in Golden. The moment he gets moved out of town and into Pancake-land he erupts for 21pts and shoots 5/10 from downtown. There, point proven, NBA players know exactly where they stand in the JBL world. So, why did Golden do this deal? Well, I needed a 2 for 1 to get under the roster limits for starters. I also see Dirty Dirk as a slight upgrade on Amare (especially in ATO). Why did Boston do this deal? Well, I can think of a couple of reasons. Boston really doesn't have anyone as a potential keeper so there is the value in Frye. Amare and Dirk are similar but there are a couple of categories that Boston could push in with Amare on board - FG% and REBS - both of which Amare is stronger than Dirk in. And really, when you're in 12th and you can get Amare and another player with value for 1 player - why not - nothing else has really worked in Boston this year (and I'll bet Trevor never forgets his laptop cord ever again).
- Then we saw Brussels and Chilliwack hook up on a 5 player deal. Chilliwack gets Jamison and David West. I get this move for the Offs. Benny gets 2 top-quality forwards and there are rumors another deal is coming. As for why Brussels made this move - this is a little harder to figure out. Timmy gets Granger, Green, and McGrady. How on earth does Brussels move Jamison and West and not get a keeper in the deal? And come on, no one honestly thinks T-Mac for $6 bucks is an option for next season do they? Granger is $50 bucks and likely the best player in this deal but he certainly isn't a bargain at that price. Jeff Green, in my books, is having a disappointing season and is destined to be back in the JBL draft next season. Maybe Brussels is hoping he can move up so he can protect Durant and Rudy Gay (who I think is a bargain at $24 bucks keeper value by the way).
- We also got to see one half of a Tuna trade message posted to the entire league. It read a lot like jibberish, which I understand because I've been to Jibber and it's lovely there this time of year. So, who was that post supposed to be for?? He was offering Okafor, Parker and Richardson. Was it Arctic perhaps? Unknown....
- Looks like there is quite a group of potential waiver wire pickups this week. Yes, I'm gonna post them right here and let the cat out of the bag. But come on, you guys are sharp, I'm not revealing any super secrets here - we all watch the box scores. So, who's out there this week? How about Marcus Thornton becoming the starting SG in New Orleans? How about Udonis Haslem? What about Aaron Afflalo? Goran Dragic? Boobie Gibson? (Yes I know his name is Daniel - but you honestly didn't think I was going to pass up the chance to type 'boobie' did you?). Lots of choices out there this week. I expect all of them to go before the weekend. And let me throw one more out there...Anthony Tolliver in Golden State. He had back-to-back double doubles for an injury depleted Warriors team. Now, remember the last part of that...Warriors team. We, the normal thinking public, think that Tolliver's performances are fluke because he got those with all the injuries in GS...but then, think again, this is a team coached by Don Nelson who loves to play weird line-ups and seems to get boners off of the odd NBDL guy. So, watch what Tolliver does this week and see if he's worth a flyer.
- So we've seen some of the top teams make some significant moves over the last couple of weeks. Juan, Golden, and the Wack have made some drastic changes. Will French, Bangkok, and Arctic respond? What about the 7th place team - Seoul? Which way will he go? He either has to cash in his chips and make a big move to get back in the race or he throws in the towel and trades Lebron and focuses on 2010/11.
- Speaking of 2010/11 - my #1 ranked keeper, Marc Gasol, had one of those nights that can give a grown man a big chubby. 19pts, 8rebs, 4stl, 3blks, 5/8FG....oh yeah, that's it baby, just like that...
- With the JBL keeper deadline 3 Sunday's away (Feb 14th) - what kind of last minute activity will we see? There are a couple of factors at play here. The first is that this is Valentine's Day and I'm thinking that some of the guys won't be online all night making those last minute deals. Secondly, I think that some of the teams have already blown their wads and might make a run with what they have (ie. Golden). Juan de Fuca still has a nice shiny Mercedes (Brook Lopez) just waiting for a rich SOB to come in and not even look at the sticker price and just say "I'll take it" without even worrying about what it costs him. The big question remains will Arctic, French, and especially Bangkok make a big move. Bangkok, I think, has the most chips to play. He has 5 legit top keepers for next season and has to make a move...doesn't he? And finally, the team with maybe the biggest chip to play is still Seoul. He has Lebron and Lebron may just have the keys to the storage locker where the JBL keeps its championship trophy. What Philly Woo decides to do with Lebron could ultimately decide the fate of the JBL title. Who will step up with the best offer? I know I don't have the chips for the King so I look forward to hearing about all the offers. It should be exciting. The worst part (or best part) for me is that I will be in Orlando from Feb 11th to Feb 26th enjoying some well-deserved R&R and I won't be privy to that last weekend prior to the keeper deadline. But I know Philly Woo will make it exciting. I know it...
Well, that's all for now...other than I am very pleased with the Golden squad tonight. I had a good night with my 9 guys and that was without my big 2 studs (Dirk and Bosh) playing tonight. As predicted, my ATO took a tumble...but everything else was just fine. Cheers.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Updated Keepers List
#10 - Danilo Gallinari ($7 keeper value)
#9 - Brandon Jennings ($11)
#8 - Chris Kaman ($14)
#7 - Tyreke Evans ($18)
#6 - Kevin Love ($17)
#5 - Monta Ellis ($24)
#4 - Kevin Durant ($43)
#3 - Nene ($12)
#2 - Brook Lopez ($11)
#1 - Marc Gasol ($13)
Moving In - Durant, Ellis, and Love. Seriously, check out their numbers...amazing
Moving Out - Frye, Westbrook, and Bargnani. Frye was demoted to 2nd string, Westbrook cannot shoot, and Bargnani just can't measure up to the Love-man.
Pull the Trigger
But Johnny, you were only 13.5 points behind Juan de Fuca when Saturday night wrapped up???
Yes, but Juan is still improving in many categories and I have to try and do something with my own team to keep up. (by noon on Sunday the lead was up to 33 points).
So...I went back to a deal that I really didn't want to begin with. Surprisingly, there were many other options...Idaho proposed another offer I was interested in...Andre Miller and Emeka Okafor for Jennings. This was pretty good because I would be able to replace Jennings ATO in this deal. However, it didn't have the 'star' power I wanted.
I tried Brussels on to see if he wanted to grab Jennings. No dice. I was looking for maybe Gay and one other. I tried Gay and Webster. Nope. I tried Gay and Alston. Nope. Why was it difficult for Tim to pull the trigger? I can think of two main reasons....
1) If he doesn't improve on his 11th place in the standings he will only be able to keep 1 player anyways (that will be Durant) so he wouldn't be able to keep Jennings.
2) He only has $1 free agent dollar left so if he traded away 2 players he would have to play guys like Boykins or Brockman. (poor team FA$ management?)
OK, I buy those theories...but shouldn't there be other factors involved??
How about pulling the trigger and then making a secondary trade??? You're telling me he couldn't make a 2 for 1 deal the other way where he could've moved Kevin Martin or Jamison or Gay?
So, with Brussels out of the equation, I had to resort back to Idaho. Over comes Amare and Duhon. Why Chris Duhon?? Because I have to try and replace Jennings' ATO somehow. Yes, Duhon currently sucks. However, the Knicks could shake their roster up by the trade deadline and Duhon could have Fantasy relevance again in the future.
So, with this deal I am now left with 1 too many players and will have to make a secondary move. I'm OK with trying to pull a 2 for 1 the other way. Personally, I would think Channing Frye (despite his recent demotion to the 2nd unit in Phoenix) still has some keeper value/potential. What if Phoenix moves Amare? What if Amare doesn't re-sign? Frye has shown he can play. I know he's not an All-Star or anything - but he is Fantasy relevant. Shouldn't some other JBL teams have interest in him? And if I paired him with say....Carl Landry or Shaq...shouldn't a Frye/Landry or Frye/Shaq combo be intriguing?
Take Brussels for example - he's trotting out Andray Blatche and Tyson Chandler as his centres currently. His bench options include Jon Brockman and Earl Boykins. Wouldn't Frye and Landry be better options? Who would you rather have - Frye/Landry or Jamison/Chandler? Keeping in mind of course that Chandler was/is injured and his potential replacement is Jon Brockman. (so really it's 2 for 1 because Chandler and Brockman give you nothing!) Oh vey.
Anyways, I have less than 24 hours to make a 2 for 1 deal and I may have found 3 potential partners. These would be much larger deals however. Without much detail, I will say I have approached Belgrade, Idaho, and Boston with multiple deal offers. Some of those deals include Amare Stoudamire - who may end up not playing a single game in Golden.
So what is the best keeper approach? Can't say I've had to employ mine very often over the years...but I know what I would be trying to do...
1) Get as many good potential keepers as I could while trying to maintain my position in the standings.
2) If I can't move up anymore, then I would be trying to get those good keepers away from the other teams so they can't be protected. In this case, do we really want to see Bangkok get to keep all of the guys he wants?? For example, I'd rather see Boston make a trade with Bangkok to get Tyreke Evans out of there...so even if Boston finishes last and can't protect a single player - at least Bangkok can't protect Evans now. (This is the old dating theory of "If I can't have her, then no one else can either" - Then you tell all your male friends she's got a cock so they stay away). And if you're Bangkok - wouldn't you be willing to sacrifice Evans if you could make a run at the JBL title? So, even if your 10th, 11th, or 12th in the JBL standings - I think you can still have a major impact on the JBL rosters. And if you are Boston, isn't it worth a shot to get at least 1 protectable player on your roster just in case you do move up??
Anyways, there will be plenty of more deals...I know it. I feel it in my bones.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Playing for 2nd?
Have I made a worse deal than Frye for Aldridge??? Frye obviously hates Golden and has since been benched in Phoenix. The numbers are frikkin' unreal. Check it out his numbers...
In Golden - 4ppg, 4reb, 20 FG%, 23% from downtown
In Belgrade - 12ppg, 6reb, 45 FG%, 40% 3PT%, 1 blk per game
I was thinking I had a potential keeper in Frye for $1 buck. But clearly he is crapola now and has lost his job to Robin Lopez - who, by the way - must be signed for big bucks tonight. He posted 20 and 7 against his brother tonight. Robin can also block some shots. I expect him to go for BIG dollars in tonight's waiver wire frenzy.
I have had some offers for Jennings this past week...some damn good ones too. And surprisingly they were from Idaho. In most cases too, I would have made the deal as his 2 offers were both quite good. In fact, I will say that he offered Amare Stoudamire for Jennings straight up. So why didn't I do it??? Numerous reasons...
1. My weakest cats are 3PT%, ATO, and steals. Amare does not help me in any of those. If I made the deal I would be worse off in ATO and lose on steals as well. But Johnny - he scores so much more! Um, no, he doesn't. Amare is 20ppg and Jennings is 18ppg. That's 2 points per game over the next 40 games. That's 80 points only. Not enough.
2. What categories does Amare significantly help me in then? Rebounds? Yes, but there is no guarantee I would catch Seoul or Bangkok in rebounds. FG% - would I really be able to move up here? Unknown.
3. Why am I trading a great keeper if I honestly don't think I can catch Juan de Fuca? I'm not loaded with cheap talent as it is so why would I move one of the top keepers? My current keeper crop is thin with Jennings, maybe Deng, maybe Casspi, unlikely Frye now, and who else??? There isn't much there for next season at all.
So, unless someone really wows me with a great offer I may just hold on to Jennings. He's been a bit better since Redd's been out with injury anyways (other than FG% - note his 5/21 tonight). So, we'll see.
My center situation in Golden is desperate. Basically they all suck at the moment. The most serviceable guy is Shaq. Gulp. How hard was that to say?
Can Boston actually catch Brussels?? They were only separated by 2 points for a minute there the other night. I believe Tim's plan is to protect Durant (no brainer). Can he move up in the standings? I think he still could if his guys get hot and stay HEALTHY.
So what other top 7 team has a chance of making a run???
Can Bangkok pull the trigger on a major move??
Can Chilliwack pull off a big deal - maybe involving Lebron for Marc Gasol??? (Rumors)
Can French Lick get healthy?
Can Arctic get some steals and blocks?
So Juan de Fuca has made their big move...who will be next?
I think the teams with the most potential to make that move are Bangkok and Chilliwack. Why? Because they have the best cheap talent. Bangkok is loaded with youngsters that could be protected...he has to make a move to sacrifice some of it to make a run. He needs 3PT% and steals!!! And Chilliwack has Marc Gasol. Could Gasol and pieces be enough to get Lebron if Woo throws in the towel? Will Woo throw in the towel? Is it in his fibre to do that?
Here's a question for you...is Lebron worth keeping for $83 bucks or whatever it is? I honestly think he is. We used to have 5-6 guys every year go for $100+ bucks. And he is clearly the #1 Fantasy player in any format. Seriously, look at his numbers...
30ppg, 8AST, 7REB, 67 STL, 42 BLK, 2.168 ATO, 51% FG, 36% 3PT
There is no one better. Last year you could argue Wade, Paul, or Howard were maybe close...this year, no one is better. Absolutely no one. Think about this...Lebron has scored more points than Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined!!!!
There is just over 4 weeks until the keeper deadline...something has to happen. Who will make the next big move? Can Juan be caught? Seriously, can he? Who are the best keepers??? Remember a couple weeks ago when I had Channing Frye in my top 10??? Well, that certainly wouldn't be the case anymore now would it?? So, if you can't win and you can't get into the money - shouldn't you be doing everything you can do to prepare for the 20th season of JBL Fantasy basketball? Now, that being said, what if you sell the farm and slip into the nether regions of the standings and you can't protect anyone at all? For example, is Boston really in a position to sell off Dirk or Wade? If he gets worse in the trade and he can't get out of 12th then he won't be able to keep anyone anyways....soooooo, what does he do?
Oh the questions...
Oh the fun ahead...
The JBL is in a bit of a lull right now because of what Juan de Fuca has done over the last week. I know he's taken the wind out of my sails with his strong performance. But, that being said, injuries can happen...NBA trades can happen....and the JBL keeper deadline can happen. There hasn't been much in terms of trade action over the past week or so...but that should change. Stay tuned boys, things will heat up again very soon...
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Randoms...
Have you ever looked at your JBL team and thought.....what on earth can I do? Where do I go from here? That's how I feel right now with this Golden bunch. Yes, I'm in the thick of things but it just looks like things are slipping away sometimes.
Have you ever noticed that a JBL trade actually does affect a players performance sometimes?? Seriously. I acquire Channing Frye, who was healthy and happy in Belgrade, and he comes in puts up 0 FG's in his Golden debut. Hasn't had one of those all season long, he gets traded in the JBL and pulls that??? Come on, these NBA guys have to know they've been moved in the JBL - how else can it be explained?
Rumors out there indicate that a JBL Podcast will soon be posted to the site. The Belgrade Zombies owner, Marko, will be chiming in soon enough. And, I am scheduled for a mid-season review next week. Oh yeah.
Hmmm, big games from big men tonight in the Association.
Al Jefferson with 22 and 26
Dejuan Blair with 28 and 21
Jamison with 25 and 19
Dalembert with 12 and 21
Dirty Dirk with 30 and 16
How many of those guys are in Golden - not a one!
We are now just 5 Sunday's away from the keeper deadline. Who will be moved? Who has the balls to blow it up and grab those best keepers for next season? Does Chris Kaman's keeper value go up because he won't see a reduction in his performance this season now that Griffin is done for the year?
Houston and Minny going to triple-overtime right now and Luis Scola is planted on the bench. He's played 28 minutes (out of a possible 58 minutes). Why is he on the bench? Is he not a better offensive option than Chuck Hayes. I don't think you can make the argument that Hayes is a better defender or a better rebounder to go up against Big Al because Jefferson has 22pts and 26rebs. So why is Scola not playing?? I don't get it.
Has anyone had more bad luck this year than Brussels (I know French would argue)....but Brussels is the team that just moved Stephen Jackson for Michael Redd. S-Jax is another guy who suddenly lights it up once he's moved to Yuma (coincidence? I think not) and Redd blows out a knee in Brussels. Hmmmm.
Hey, look at that. Rudy Fernandez is back for PDX. That should help them. And how is Juwan Howard doing it?? He's 56 years old.
On paper, are the Milwaukee Bucks the least talented team in the league? Seriously, they start a rookie PG that 9 teams didn't want and who shoots under 40%. They have an Aussie center with a history of back troubles and whose peak numbers are likely 16 and 10. Then they start Charlie Bell, and 2 others named Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. How many other teams do those 2 players start on?? Their bench is stacked with Jodie Meeks, Kurt Thomas, Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, and others. Really? How has this team won 15 games and the NJ Nets only won 3?
Hey, a Scola sighting...good to see it took Chuck Hayes to foul out before he could get back in. Ugh. Aaron Brooks has 40 pts in that game. Wow, talk about under-rated PG's this season. Big Al has 26 and 26. When is the last time a player went 30 and 30?? Has Howard done it? I don't think so...I think this could be one of those things that hasn't happened since the days of Bill Russell. Maybe I'm wrong. Bill Simmons would know. Plus, I don't think Big Al will get there. Great game nonetheless.
Portland up by 30 on the Bucks in the 3rd quarter. Proves my earlier point I think.
So if you're the Raptors - what do you do with Chris Bosh at the trade deadline. This could go a couple of different ways....
1) Bosh tells you he will re-sign and you do nothing with him at the deadline
2) Bosh says he wants to test free agency but is willing to re-sign...this means they will have to look for a good trade or else look for a sign and trade in the off season.
3) Bosh says he wants to test free agency and makes no indication he wants to re-sign...this means you must trade him.
I believe there could be some truth to those Bosh to Houston rumors. The guy is from Texas and they could use another big man to play with Yao. And think, they could trade Scola to Toronto so the Raptors have the all-Euro team they want so badly and they can then become the worst defensive squad in the NBA. It all makes sense....so, start the rumor, Bosh to Houston for Scola and change.
I have 6 man games tonight and I scored 62 points...Aaron Brooks has 43 (and counting) all by himself. And that's why the Golden squad is in trouble.
That's all for tonight...I have been sooo busy at work that I just haven't had the time to devote to the JBL that I usually would like. It's like a mid-season crisis....where you don't have time, you hate your team, you have feelings like you just don't care, where you think 'fuck it, I'm gonna blow it up', I'm rambling...I'll go now.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
The Top 5 Keepers...
Without further ado...
#5 - Brandon Jennings - Golden - $11 keeper value. The 55-kid has taken the NBA by storm. No one expected him to be this good. And if anything, people are now disappointed in his play since he nearly dropped a triple-double in his first NBA game and then went for 55 points shortly thereafter. Look, the kid has his flaws, but he also has his upside. Remember, he's 20 years old. He's averaging close to 20ppg, with 6AST, and 4rebs. His ATO is over 2.000 and he has been getting over a STL per game. On top of that he is shooting over 40% from downtown. The bad news, he's only a slightly better shooter than Westbrook and he plays for a shitty Bucks team. However, they are in a rebuild mode and BJ and Bogut should be the cornerstones for years to come.
#4 - Tyreke Evans - Bangkok - $18 keeper value. Another kid who has been way better than experts predicted. Maybe his development was accelerated when K-Mart went down in game 5 of the season. No matter, pretty sure his talent would have had him on the court anyways. He is averaging 20-5-5 and not many rookies have accomplished that over a full season. He is the future of the Kings (along with a kid named Casspi). He has 44 steals in 30 games and shoots a respectable 45%. OK, he hasn't mastered the 3PT'er yet but come on, give the kid a break. He's a stud. He's one of many keeper-studs in Bangkok. The question is - which one will he have the balls to deal????
#3 - Nene - Seoul - $12 keeper value. The forgotten man in Seoul. He has been every bit as valuable to that team as the big name boys this season. Nene does it all with 14ppg, 9reb, 58 STL, 38 BLK, 1.673 ATO, and he shoots 57.5%. All for $7 dollars this season!! Unreal production. When you get a guy this good for that cheap it allows you to do so much more with the rest of your lineup. The bonus with Nene is the ATO too as most Centers don't come anywhere close to his numbers. But if you want him - you will have to pay a steep price as Seoul is well aware of his value.
#2 - Brook Lopez - Juan de Fuca - $11 keeper value. Lopez has improved in his 2nd season and can already be considered an elite Center in the league. He's averaging 18 and 10 and he's shooting 48%. Add in 68 blocks and you can't ask for anything more from your Center (well, maybe a little higher FG%). His ATO is almost 1.000 but he still turns the ball over a bit too much. His STLS are good for a big man too. Look, he could be the #1 keeper in my books...it's that close in my mind. And don't forget, it depends on how you're building a team. Let's consider him 1B in this case.
#1 - Marc Gasol - Chilliwack - $13 keeper value. My 1A choice this season based on how the Grizzlies play. They have no bench to speak of and Hasheem Thabeet has turned out to a bust so the younger Gasol can play all night long. The strong points for Gasol is the 15ppg, 10reb and 62% shooting. Think about that - 62% - wow. Add in the positive ATO (just), 29 STLS, and 46 blocks. Why does he get the nod over Lopez - I'm giving it to him for the 62 FG%. Every other category between Gasol and Lopez is pretty close - except for that one. Think about this...Gasol shoots 14% better than Lopez. Unreal...
So, there you have it...the top 10 keepers for the 2010/11 season. I know, I know, there are lots of other guys who are good values. Kevin Durant is probably one of the better studs for a bigger dollar value (also Boozer, Carmelo, Josh) What about CDR, Yi, Love, Curry, Ellis, etc. Heck, I still think Lebron is a bargain at his price...look at what he does. For my squad, I like the potential of Casspi, Deng, and Eric Gordon as well...but we'll see. Don't like my top 10 - comment right here on the blog.
So, what about the big 6 player deal???
Juan gets Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, and CDR
Brussels gets Durant, West, and Webster.
Who wins??? You tell me.
Oh right, my blog, I gotta write something. Bottom line on this trade, Juan is now the clear cut favorite for the JBL title if every other team remained the same. He has the ultimate luxury of being so far in front in PTS and REBS that he could afford to give up a bit in these 2 categories. Ultimately, he didn't really give up much - the guys they bring back average 16.5 and 4.58. So, he does lose rebounds. Juan's 2 biggest weaknesses - ATO and 3PT% - are certainly addressed in this deal. He also gains big time in steals (1.39). So, I like it a lot from Juan's point of view.
As for Brussels...this deal, to me, is not the typical "I give up" trade. He's actually still trying to make a move up the ladder. Did he do it? Only time will tell. He definitely gained in REBS (5.97) and in scoring (18.4). His ATO is doomed now and his 3PT% should slowly drop as well. So, why did Brussels do the deal? I'm assuming to get his hands on super stud Kevin Durant to protect for next season. Durant averages 28 and 7 and shoots 47%. His TO's are horrible this year and his 3PT% has plummeted but it appears now that Brussels could make a run in scoring as he will have Kevin Martin returning from injury soon as well. He will be able to start four 20+ PPG guys. The problem in Brussels - too many role players. Can he really compete with Boykins, Blatche, Harden, CJ Watson, TJ Ford and others having to start every week? I'm all for a couple of stat stuffers, but I'm not sure this team has what it takes to climb back into contention. But hey, I've been wrong before. I give Tim credit for pulling the trigger and I'm thankful for 2 things out of this deal.
1) He didn't just sell off Chris Paul for 1 player...he made the massive fairly even deal. If he had moved Paul for Brook Lopez - I'd really be doomed.
2) The moves Brussels has made should help my Golden squad a bit as I will be able to pass Tim in 3PT% and stay in front of him in ATO. I also might be able to catch Juan in FG% now. I will get passed by Juan in steals now though - so it's not all good.
Tim texted me just minutes before this deal went down. He was trying to pry an offer out of me for Paul. I couldn't do anything as I was driving home and didn't want to risk the $167 dollar fine for texting while driving. In my head, I was going to offer Jennings and Eric Gordon for Chris Paul. Oh well.
Anyways, great trade for the JBL. Congrats boys on shaking things up and now it makes the other contending teams make a move to counter this strong move from Juan de Fuca. Let the games begin.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Keepers, Keepers, Everywhere
So, with that in mind...who are the top keepers out there?? There are loads of good ones in mind and they will change over the coming months for sure. And then, this summer, they will change again as FA's change homes after July 1st. You may think your Knick keepers are good until Lebron comes to town (just a possible example - I have no inside knowledge he's leaving for NYC).
And of course, my keeper list would change depending on who else is already on your team.
Let me go through who my top 10 keepers are at this point for next season. Let's see if you agree.
#10 - Danilo Gallinari - Brussels - could be protected for $7 bucks. When Coach D'Antoni says he's the best shooter he's ever coached...that has to mean something. Now, that being said, Danilo is only shooting 43 and 41 but he has loads of potential. Of course, the uncertainty of who else will be in New York next season is a bit worrisome if you are keeping Gallinari. That being said, he's averaging around 15ppg and makes a LOT of 3 pointers (which a lot of JBL teams could use this season). He has also chipped in with 28 STLS and 27 BLKS so far this season. He has a positive ATO and is around 5 reb per game. You could do a lot worse than this guy for $7 bucks.
#9 - Andrea Bargnani - Chilliwack - $15 keeper value. Again, a lot depends on what happens in TO over the summer. What if Bosh leaves and they don't replace him with another star? Does that make Bargnani the go-to guy? Can he average 20 and 10? He is at 17 and 6 this season. Is there room for more? He's blocked 45 shots so that's a bonus too. His ATO isn't great and he won't get you many steals...but for $15 bucks...you can do a lot worse at center. I paid $15 bucks for Shaq in the draft this year - who would you rather have?? That's right, Bargnani. So, he could have even more upside depending on what happens in Toronto.
#8 - Russell Westbrook - Bangkok - $15 keeper value. If only he could shoot. I'm a big fan of Westbrook. Bangkok can attest to that, I tried a lot to obtain him. Now, that being said, he does have some negatives that hold him a little further down my keeper list. It's those darn %'s. He shoots 39 and 27 and that isn't good. But you know what - pair him with Dwight Howard and that FG% doesn't seem so bad after all. The guy brings a lot to the table with 16ppg, 7ast, and 5reb plus over a steal a game. As well, he has really improved his ATO from his rookie season so he's a top notch keeper at PG in my books. Plus, he's on an improving team that is only going to get better. I like this kid a lot.
#7 - Chris Kaman - Bangkok - $14 keeper value. Another Fighter on the list. He's having a career season with averages of 20 and 9 and 44 blocks so far. He also shoots it at a really high percentage (51%). He's having an amazing season. So, why does he come in at #7? Do you really trust this guy to have this season again? He's putting up stellar numbers without the #1 pick Blake Griffin in the lineup. If you look at his career numbers you would seem to think this could be a career season and wonder if it's just a mirage. And you also have to think that the Clips at some point want Gordon and Griffin to be the focal points on offense. Now, that being said, even if Kaman was a 15 and 9 guy - wouldn't that still be worth keeping at $14 bucks. I say hell yes. Plus, look at him, the hair, his face, just awesome.
#6 - Channing Frye - Belgrade - $6 keeper value. The $1 dollar 2009 draft night gem. And to think I could have had him instead of Julian Wright. Whoops. His value is easy. All JBL teams have star players. But very few good JBL teams have these cheap gems. Frye is a 7 category Fantasy player. 12ppg, 6reb, 1.558 ATO, 26 steals, 30 blocks, 45FG%, 43 3PT%. I don't care how you build your JBL team - this guy is valuable to whatever strategy you use. I can't say enough about him. I love his game in Phoenix. That's the key for his future Fantasy value - that he remains in PHX and that PG of theirs keeps playing.
I'm gonna save the TOP 5 KEEPERS for later in the week...
But how about those JBL Standings?? We have Juan de Fuca into the 800's tonight. They look like they are ready to rumble. And what if Calderon comes back and returns to his 08/09 form? Would his ATO be enough for Juan to gain 2-3 spots? Perhaps.
I spoke with Philly Woo on the phone today. God I miss his work phone calls. The good news is he's feeling better and could be back to work at the end of the month. We talked hoops for half an hour at the end of my work day. Awesome.
And my obsession with the Kings continues. Maybe it's because Omar Casspi reminds me of a young Peja. I don't know..but I'm obsessed with their team. Weird.
Oh well, that's all for now...
Sunday, January 3, 2010
The Cold Arctic Cometh!
There are plenty of trade offers flying around the JBL right now...
The JBL League office has heard rumors of a number of potential players being sought after. Apparently, Belgrade is being asked about Carmelo; Golden is being asked about Jennings and Josh Smith; Seoul is being asked about Caron Butler; and the lists go on. We'll see if anything materializes from any of these "rumored" talks. Again, as I mentioned before, it's gonna be very difficult for contending teams to make trades with each other at this point in the season.
Some random thoughts as we approach the halfway point of the 19th JBL season:
- 4 owners advised they are prepared to head to Vegas for the 2010 draft. Pretty easy to guess who those 4 are at this point.
- My Golden team is really starting to struggle in ATO, 3PT%, and STLS...but I really want to see what happens in week 11 when I put out a super-small lineup and go for STLS and 3PT%. What will likely happen is that I will be caught in FG% and REBS and the plan will backfire in my face
- French Lick has been absolutely devastated by injury. Billups, Rondo, Garnett, Murphy, Pierce, and Griffin are all missing time right now. No wonder he's dropped to 725. Remember last year when the Pancakes squad was hit hard with injuries like this? Sometimes it takes awhile to recover.
- Bangkok, one of my favorite teams has yet to address his 3PT%. He could be one of the teams after Josh Smith for his steals...but why wouldn't he be more interested in guys like Eric Gordon or Brandon Jennings - guys who could get him both categories.
- Juan de Fuca and Golden have very similar teams. In fact, they share the same 3 weak categories (3PT%, ATO, STLS).
- I'm still wondering which of the bottom 5 teams will come forward with the best offer for guys like Jennings, Tyreke, Brook Lopez, or Nene. All of these young studs would be great to build around in 2010 but it will obviously take quite the offer to land one of them.
- On that topic...wouldn't a Steve Nash for Brook Lopez trade be interesting? Juan is desperate for 3PT% and ATO and Arctic needs blocks. Seems like a match made in heaven. What about Brook Lopez for Brandon Jennings?
- What will Idaho do with his team? Will Boston try and get a cheap stud for Wade or Nowitzki? What about Belgrade and Yuma? Will our rookie owners attempt a big shake-up?
There has been a lot of scoreboard chat surrounding the Sacramento Kings. This young team is VERY entertaining to watch. I have to admit I thought it was a mistake bringing in Paul Westphal to run the show. He hadn't coached in the NBA in years and I thought he'd be one of those guys who just couldn't handle the pro game again (ie. Tim Floyd, Eric Musselman). But he has proved me wrong. He has this team playing very competitive basketball (and that's without their best player Kevin Martin)...and for a few games last week that was without their 2nd place player in Tyreke Evans. Who would have thought that a team with Beno Udrih, Donta Greene, Spencer Hawes, Omar Casspi, and Jason Thompson could play with the big boys???? Plus, after seeing their games on TV again and seeing the spirit their fans have when they are in games, it makes the ARCO arena one of those places that I have to see a NBA game at some point. Roadie!
Who are your favorite teams to watch?? I am obviously a big Blazers fan and love to watch Brandon Roy take over games in the 4th quarter. So they are my favorite. After visiting Chicago and seeing the Bulls banners hanging from the rafters and seeing the vintage Michael Jordan DVD collection (featuring 5 of his greatest games in their entirety) I am a born-again Bulls fans. I was a big Bulls fan in the mid-90's when they were winning their championships. Plus, seeing Bill Cartwright do his thing on DVD was amazing. Even my 6 year old Ryan said, "Dad, why does that guy shoot it so high?" Classic moment. So, put the Bulls done as #2 for me right now. I have also enjoyed seeing the Warriors on TV as they play so fast and unpredictable. I also am diggin' the Kings this year as well as the Hawks. That starting 5 in ATL is pretty darn good. Imagine if they didn't Marvin Williams at #2 that year!!! And I of course like watching the Cavs and Suns as they do their thing too.
Are their teams you don't like to watch?? I know for me its the Spurs. Don't get me wrong, they play a brand of basketball that wins championships...but their style is soooo boring. I've seen the Wizards and Bobcats play on TV this year too and they really don't play an entertaining game at all either.
I am checking into games for Ryan and I to see while we are in Orlando in February. We can either see the Mavs vs. Magic or the Cavs vs. Magic. Center court seats for the game against the Mavs are about $150 each and the same seats for the game against the Cavs are $450 each. So, I think we'll go see Dirk and Jason Kidd. But then again, this is a chance to see Lebron and Shaq. Shouldn't I go see them?
Thought about it...and I've talked myself into it. We're seeing the Cavs! I've seen the Mavericks before and I really think Ryan should see Shaq and Lebron. Just maybe not from center court.
Lots of NBA trade rumors out there right now...I wonder if any will happen. Apparently Nate Robinson rejected a deal to go to the Grizzlies. Just shows you that even sitting 14 games in a row on the Knicks bench (the KNICKS bench!!) is better than playing in Memphis for half a season!
Rumored deal of Caron Butler to the Bulls for Kirk Hinrich. Bulls could play Caron at the 2 and be a very big team. Wizards would be dumping salary and would have a PG to start once Gilbert goes to jail.
And finally...I think it's time for a top 10 list...I have it prepared but I will save it for mid-week. I am going to tell you who my top 10 keepers are for 2010/11 as of right now...stay tuned.
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