Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Holy Crapola

OK, seriously, I go away for one day and all hell breaks loose. My day started today with a 4:30am wake up call to catch a 7am ferry to Victoria. A group of 8 of us execute a warrant on a Rehab provider and spend 6 hours searching and seizing documents. 15 hours, 2 Pacific Buffets, 2 ferry rides, and 8 cups of coffee later I'm at home and I see 2 more trades (1 of the monster variety) in my email inbox.

I was warned about this monster trade via Timbo in the afternoon...when he said that Juan de Fuca just won the JBL. Once he texted me the details of the trade - I'm probably going to have to agree. But I do have some comments...

Juan CLEARLY got the better of this deal. He gets Okafor/Parker AND Monta Ellis. He gives up Brook Lopez, Jose Calderon AND Earl Watson. OK, seriously, was Earl Watson the key to this deal? Would it have gone down without him included in the package?? This is almost a 3 for 1 deal as Calderon is a shell of his former self. Anyways, on the surface we think HOLY COW this is sooo one-sided - and it is. However, the obvious category wins for Juan de Fuca really have no bearing on the current standings. We say wow, look at all the scoring and rebounds Juan gains. Well, actually, they're already 1st in both categories so he gains 0 points. Yes, Juan gains in steals and could move up 3-4 cspots adding Monta to his mix. Juan didn't gain any blocks as Brook has 85 and Okafor has 75. What about ATO? Did he really gain enough to move up? I haven't crunched the numbers so I don't really know. FG%? I'm assuming so. 3PT%? I don't think so as Monta jacks them up for 30%. So what did Juan really gain in here? We know for sure he has PTS and REBs wrapped up - but he did anyways. Let me say that Juan de Fuca is the clear favorite (at this point) to win the JBL title but this trade doesn't help them as much as it may appear. As for Idaho, with that bunch of players he's putting out there now he will be lucky to remain in 9th place. His goal is clear - he wants Lopez and Jennings for 10/11. Can he avoid falling in the standings though? We'll see.

And I see French and Brussels hooked up on a 3 for 1 deal. French is taking the chance on Kevin Martin and gave up Salmons, JR Smith, and Jonny Flynn. I can see this from both sides. French is hoping KMart can find his 20+ scoring form again while Brussels desperately needed depth and potential keeper(Flynn). Immediate help on its way for Brussels while French has to hope Martin turns it around.

Last night, after the Woo trade debacle, I spent about 30 minutes on the phone with Tricky Dick. We discussed the Woo blunder by hitting accept instead of reject. This has happened before in the JBL and Woo called me within 20 seconds of me reading the email that Lebron had been traded for David Lee and Richard Hamilton. When I read it, I knew it had to be a mistake. And it was. Even Rick had a chuckle over it - for a second or two anyways.

Rick and I discussed the JBL, the state of his team, the value of players, the value of keepers, life, Woo, trade offers, and other random things over the half hour. Awesome chat. Really enjoyed it. Unfortunately (for Rick), I wasn't willing to part with my guys and he wasn't willing to part with his. I think right now Rick is going through the classic phase when you over-value your own players. We all do it. I do it. You do it. The guys on your team, because they are on your team, are worth more than the what the rest of the league think their worth. Rick has a little bit of this right now (in my opinion). If he can get past it, then the trades will come.

Rick has the envious position of having 5 quality keepers to choose from. What he has to realize is that even if he wins the JBL title he can only keep 4 of them at most. So, he may as well move one of them anyways. In my books, Curry and Evans wouldn't go anywhere, they both appear to be studs in the making. Kaman, Lee, and Westbrook should be up for grabs though for the best offers. Lee seems like a good keeper but he does have his drawbacks. Namely, someone please tell me what Lee will average in NY next year (if he's even there still)? What if he stays a Knick and they sign Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson and one more guy? Now what will Lee average? What if the Knicks get Lebron? Now what does Lee average? It's an unknown for sure. A little bit of the same logic can be used on Kaman....what effect does Blake Griffin have on Kaman's numbers? Does Camby return? How do the 3 co-exist? Can they co-exist? And Westbrook's 2 biggest drawbacks are FG% and 3PT%. The kid is a stud and the #2 option in OKC right now. He has good ATO, can steal, rebounds well for a PG and can score. But he can't shoot a lick and this is the 2nd year with that trend. So, can he learn to shoot? What does OKC do this off season? So Rick has the keepers - but the ones he should move all come with question marks. I made an offer for Westbrook. Rick doesn't think it's enough. My question to him is - has he had a better offer for Westbrook? I don't know the answer to that. Does the offer I made him improve his team? That's up to him to decide - but I know it does address one of his weaknesses. Anyways, Rick has 2 weeks to decide the direction of his team for this season and next. With Juan's recent trade can anyone catch them? Should Rick be holding on to all his keepers?

Man, what a day....

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