Sunday, January 31, 2010

Sunday musings...

Well, Juan and the Wack after established themselves as the front runners with Golden, Arctic, French, and Bangkok still in the hunt. The Seoul Brothers are still hanging around but without a major move they don't appear to have the horses to get back in the thick of things. Now, that being said, I saw an online offer last night of Nene for Dwayne Wade. I then saw Chilliwack jump in with a Marc Gasol for Dwyane Wade offer shortly after that. It's that type of move that could help Seoul get back in the race and win it all for the Wack. I don't know if 'official' offers were made but both of those would have huge impact on the JBL standings. As for Boston, both of those offers have to be intriguing at least. The Pancakes aren't winning the title this year but they also have been trending upwards, are finally out of the basement, and actually can think about who he will protect for next season. Adding Nene or Gasol to Channing Frye could be a good move.

Gasol continues to be the #1 keeper out there in my books. In his last 10 games he's averaging 17 and 10 with 19 steals and 21 blocks while shooting 58% from the field. He's a stud. If I was Boston, I'd be taking Gasol over Nene.

I wonder if Seoul would be interested in a Nene for Chris Bosh deal? I wonder if I really would? I'm still in the hunt but I'm going to need a lot of things to go right if I want to catch Juan or Chilliwack. The downside for my Golden squad at the moment is a real lack of keepers for next season. I really only have Luol Deng (keeper value $17 bucks) that makes sense. On the year, he's 18 and 7 with 43 steals and 47 blocks while shooting 46 and 43 and he has a positive ATO. And with a tendex over 18 (more than his salary) he has to be considered. However, after Deng, the cupboard is pretty bare. I could consider Casspi but things need to get sorted out in Sac-town. Omar would have to be a starter for me to consider keeping him. Which brings me back to Nene. If I can't win the title this year - why shouldn't I try to acquire Nene? Do I really care if I finish 3rd, 4th or 7th? I've always been an all or nothing type of Fantasy owner. No one cares who finished 2nd or 3rd (unless of course you've never won a title and cling to the old "Well, I have finished 3rd two times you know"). It really doesn't matter does it? So, if you can't win this year - why not focus on next year...and Nene (or Gasol) would certainly do that. The biggest hurdle I see - the salary cap issues in Seoul. Chilliwack could handle a big salary player - but does it make him any better?

As I quickly check the JBL live scoreboard this morning I see Chilliwack is now the JBL leader!

There were a couple of late trades this week as well...

1. Brussels traded Granger to Bangkok for Chris Kaman. Makes sense for both teams and Tim gathers cheap talent for next season. And Rick hopes that Granger's "off" season can be saved in beautiful Bangkok. Moving Kaman's horrendous ATO is a big bonus for Rick but the %'s than Danny brings are equally bad. I mean he's shooting 40 FG% and 35% from downtown. He could improve on those though. Big drop in rebounding for Bangkok as well.

2. Brussels then traded Jeff Green to Bangkok for Jason Thompson. This trade was within an hour of Brussels email the league commish advising he was aware he was under the $200 salary cap floor and would make the necessary moves to get over the cap floor. Jason Thompson has struggled as of late but his inflated $24 dollar salary made him very attractive. Plus, it's not like he's horrible. But he is in a bit of a funk. He's 13 and 9 with 44 blocks. Not too shabby. Bangkok acquires another versatile forward who is also having an 'off' season in Jeff Green. He's the 3rd option in OKC and is averaging 14 and 6. He has also chipped in 47 steals and 39 blocks. His downside, 29% from behind the arc and he takes a lot of them.

3. Brussels traded John Salmons to Idaho for Roy Hibbert --- for 9 minutes. Then an email was sent to the league office requesting the trade be reversed as Brussels hit the wrong button. OK, I'll buy it. But how long should the JBL owners have to declare, "I hit the wrong button"? I'm not saying that either of these deals (Lebron) that that didn't happen...I'm just wondering what the limit should be. If I "accept" a deal at 11pm on Saturday night I should know right away because of the email confirmation that the deal went through. Correct? So what if I don't check my email and then Sunday morning I realize, holy cow, I hit the wrong button. So, now 10 hours later is it (A) I hit the wrong button or (B) I slept on it and I don't like the deal for me. I think, it the latter case, it will take an email from both owners to reverse that deal. In the first case, I think 10-15 minutes is adequate and the owner requesting the reversal must advise the other owner. And again, in both these cases, there was NO argument from Bangkok or Idaho.

So, what direction does Golden take in the next 14 days? And think about this JBL owners -- the current 3rd place team is actually considering making moves towards next season...
If I am going to challenge Chilliwack and Juan I will need to improve in 3PT%, ATO, and steals. How do I do it? I was hoping Chris Duhon would be a possibility. Turns out he's worse than I thought. Yes, his ATO in week 15 has been good (28:2) but his shooting has been equally brutal (3/14). So, do I play him? Drop him? Bench him? I don't know. His 3PT% has been ugly too (2/9) so he only helps me in ATO but hurts me everywhere else. I've tried moving a forward who is 16 and 5, shoots 55%, and has 39 blocks - but there is no interest. On paper he sounds pretty good. But then you tell people he's Carl Landry and no one wants the guy. Oh well.

I could consider a big shake up and try to improve for this season while looking at next year as well. That type of move would be a Bosh for Nene or Bosh for Gasol type of trade. But I haven't looked at the numbers so I don't know if it's even worth my while let alone those teams. I can see why Seoul would want Bosh as Philly Woo is currently 9th in scoring and could move up 60-80 points with Bosh's big scoring numbers. But I would also lose close to 500 points in total scoring as Bosh is 24ppg and Nene is 14ppg. But then again, do I care if I finish 2nd or 7th? The biggest problem I have making a deal with Seoul - salary cap issues.

And what about Bosh for Marc Gasol? Why would Benny do this? He would gain in PTS and REBS - that's it. Is it worth it for him? He would probably gain 40 pts in scoring as he would catch Idaho and Arctic. But he would lose in steals and blocks and ATO...so this deal would never happen...unless I added something to it. Anyways...something to think about.

Our big keeper deadline is Feb 14th and I will be in Orlando at that time. So, I'm not sure how much I will be online during that day for last minute deals. With the midnight PST deadline I have a feeling I will be up a little later than usual....good times ahead.

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