Chilliwack - 802 points. As I write this it's Benny sitting in 6th place. He's just 33 points from being in 2nd...that's how close it is. So where can Benny move up? 3PT% - well, he's 0.4% behind Arctic but I don't think the move is happening. ATO - Benny is 1st and it looks like he will stay put as Arctic is a ways behind. BLKS - this is where the Wack can gain 13 pts...he's just 2 blocks behind Golden and that would be a big +/- 13 points for these 2 teams. FG% - Benny has plummeted down the FG% standings and appears he's stuck with the points he has in this category. PTS - The Wack is only 40+ points ahead of Yuma. Can he hold him off? Can Benny make up the 100+ points he's behind Arctic? I don't think so, but we'll find out. That would obviously be a HUGE +20 if he could do it. STLS - only 8 steals behind French. A big 13 points on the line here. REBS - The Wack is stuck where they are, about 100 ahead and 100 behind the teams around him. No obvious movement coming. So, how many points can Benny gain this week? Benny could see 13-26 points for sure with the outside shot of 46 points if he can outscore the Arctic. It looks like 802 to 828 total points is most likely for this squad. Where will that finish? Unknown really, as it really is muddy waters at the top these days. As for keepers next season Benny is loaded with the likes of Marc Gasol, Andrea Bargnani, AK47, Mike Conley and/or maybe Antawn Jamison. No matter where he finishes, Benny will be a favorite in the 2010/11 rankings going into the draft.
Bangkok - currently in 5th with 806 points. Talk about peaking at the right time. Rick has made all the right moves this season and his team is finishing on a high. I'd just like to point out that about 2 weeks into the season I received a trade offer of Stephen Curry for Boris Diaw and I turned it down. Nice work Johnny. I had too much faith in Boris the Spider and look where it got me. Oh well. So, can Bangkok win this thing? Let's look. You really don't have to look any further than 3PT%. There are potential 52 points here for Bangkok if the team gets hot. The question is can he and will he? ATO - no room to move up but there is a possibility he could lose 13-26 points if Boston and Golden can catch him. It's very close here. BLKS - Rick is going nowhere here. FG% - Rick can gain or lose 13 points in this category. PTS - our 1st place scoring team is maxed out. STLS - another 26 points are possible here if he can pass Belgrade and Seoul. REBS - not going anywhere. So, if everything went perfectly, Bangkok could gain another 91 points. Will he? I don't think so as I think his 3PT% dreams will not be realized - but then again - I've been wrong many times before. So, in this perfect world Bangkok moves to 897. That could actually be enough to win it all (if Seoul drops in certain spots). So, I'll say it, Bangkok can still win the title. And this could be the pre-season 10/11 favorite with keepers likes Curry, Westbrook, Kaman, and Flynn. That would cost him just $53 bucks if those were his 4 keepers. Of course, he could also choose to protect Rudy Gay for his all around game. Oh the choices. No matter what happens here, Bangkok should be a contender, no, a favorite for the 2010/11 season.
Currently tied for 3rd (but technically 4th) are the French Lick Celtics with 820 points. French loses the tie-breaker to Juan 4 categories to 3 at the moment. However, with the way this season has gone I'm sure we'll see lots of movement in the last 10 days. Can French make a run? 3PT% - a possible 13 pts here but French has to get hot and Boston has to shoot bricks. Unlikely to move up I think. ATO - French is closing in on the Arctic squad and is just 0.011 behind. This would be a HUGE +13 for the French squad. BLKS - no more points here. FG% - a chance for +26 in this category if his boys hit the nets this week. PTS - 100 points behind Yuma. Not impossible, but not a sure thing. I'm thinking he doesn't catch them as the Celtics (the real ones) will be rested down the stretch I'm sure. STLS - already in 1st and only 8 steals ahead of the Wack. French needs to maintain his spot and not lose the points. REBS - stuck where he is. So, with some good play, French could gain 39-52 points. That would get him up to the 860-870 range. That could be right there too you know. French is really built to win right now and doesn't have any show-stopping keepers. He could protect guys like Millsap (with the hope Boozer leaves), Dalembert (with the hope his current coach is canned or he gets traded), Felton (with the hope he follows up his breakout year with another good season), or Paul Pierce (because he's the Truth).
In 3rd place right now are the Juan de Fuca Yo Mamas - also at 820 points. Can they make the big move? Let's see. 3PT% - a possible 26 points here if Anthony Morrow continues his torrid pace. Of course, there is a possibility to lose as much as 52 points here as the teams behind Juan start to bunch up. ATO - no more points coming here. BLKS - just 8 blocks behind Brussels he could gain 13 points here. FG% - a tight race here as Juan could either gain 13 points or possibly lose 26. A big category to watch over the last 10 days. I think at most they would drop 13 as the Arctic is now 0.2% behind. PTS - Juan is just 7 measly points ahead of the juggernaut we know as Woo. Will Woo catch him now that Bogut is out? Unknown. What I do know is that Woo made up a few hundred points on Juan over the last couple of weeks so I think the trend would be to say that Seoul will pass Juan and the Mamas will drop a crucial 20 points here. STLS - just 2 behind Yuma and yet just 2 ahead of Golden. Lots could happen here too. REBS - going nowhere. The simple math tells you that Juan could gain maybe 65 points. That would get him to 885 and be right in the mix. However, the unfortunate truth is that Juan could also lose as many as 98 points if everything went in the shitter. That would obviously drop him WAY down the standings. What will happen? Well Juan has to be the hardest to predict for sure. As for next season, Juan will likely bring back an experienced middle salary class including Zach Randolph, Monta Ellis, Gerald Wallace, and cheap sharpshooter Gallinari. Where will Juan finish? I have no idea.
Currently in 2nd place is my beloved/hated Golden Showers squad with 834 points. My cast of characters are barely holding on and it's been the stellar play of called-out stars Bosh and Nowitzki who have kept me afloat this week. Can Golden climb any higher or will they drop like Anthony's 2nd nut on his 17th birthday? 3PT% - the crowd is building behind the Showers. The only place to go is down. So, does that mean I play Delfino or sit him? Undecided. ATO - a possible 26 points here as I am 0.011 behind 2 squads (Boston and Bangkok). Will I do it? I say unlikely. BLKS - only 2 ahead of the Wack and I will be playing with 11 men this week as Maxiell is my only center (I lost Robin Lopez and Spencer Hawes to season ending injuries). My center spot was weak all season and I ended up losing 3 guys to injury (don't forget I was the proud owner of Shaq-Daddy). I may focus a bit more next season on drafting better up the middle. Anyways, I think I'm likely to lose the 13 points here, but you never know. FG% - a possible 13 points up or down here. PTS - going nowhere. STLS - just 3 steals away from +26 points. Can I catch Juan and/or Yuma? That would be a big 26 points. REBS - just 40+ rebounds ahead of Arctic. I really need to maintain my spot and hold onto those 15 points. In the end I could lose maybe 28 points or gain as many as 65. That assumes I stay put in 3PT% - which certainly isn't a guarantee by any means. So, my range is likely low 800's to 899 points. But look, I'm not expecting much as I think a lot of my guys (Brooks, Rose, Deng, etc) will be rested down the stretch as their teams are eliminated from playoff contention. As for next season, I really haven't gathered much cheap talent at all. I can choose from Aaron Brooks, Luol Deng, and Carl Landry as cheaper options or I can turn to all-round stud Josh Smith. To date, Josh has 281 combined steals + blocks. Who else can say that? Well, Dwight Howard has also posted 281 combined steals and blocks. I know you're curious as to who else puts up monster combined steals/block numbers.... well, Lebron has 197, Durant 174, Rondo 190, and D-Wade is at 215. A surprise in this mix - Andrew Bogut with 213 combined!!! Good on ya Aussie.
And then there is the Seoul team Phil is 10 days away from his 3rd title in 5 years and we are staring at another 5-6 emails about Tendex, role players, and the quality of Asian porn. Look, I get it, he knows his stuff. He does his homework. You may not like it, but the guy knows his JBL stats. You may not like his sarcasm or bluntness at times but the guy is passionate. You can't take that away from him. Plus, we have to remember that for a 4-5 week period in December and January we almost lost Philly Woo. He was that sick. He spent weeks in hospital and was unable to even look at his Fantasy team. I visited him at VGH and Benny and I had bought him the Bill Simmons book - Phil couldn't even hold it when I passed it to him. For what Phil went through, he deserves this win.
Now, with all that said, is there anyway he can't win this thing? He's currently at 893 points.
- 3PT% - he's 11th and can only move up. With some hot shooting he could actually gain 65 points.
- ATO - he could actually lose 13 points here. He's just 0.002 ahead of Yuma so it's possible. There is an outside chance that Seoul could move up if he had a wicked ATO week, but it's unlikely.
- BLKS - are you kidding me, he's 108 blocks ahead.
- FG% - currently at 47.8% he is just 0.2 ahead of Juan and Golden. There is a slight chance that he could lose 26 points, but I doubt it, not with the likes of Gasol, Lebron, and Nene shooting such high %'s.
- PTS - he's right on Juan's tail (7 points behind) and I firmly believe that Seoul will pass Juan and gain another 20 points here. It is possible though that guys like Lebron, Pau, Nene, Ray Allen and others will be rested down the stretch. That can be said about Juan's players as well though, so I'm going to say +20 for Seoul.
- STLS - unlikely to move up but there are 26 points to lose if Belgrade and Bangkok go hog-wild in the steals department. They are only 8 and 6 steals behind. So, it's possible that Woo loses a maximum of 26 points here.
- REBS - the best in the JBL and he's not going anywhere.
So, it's possible that Seoul could actually gain another 85 points if he scores well and shot lights out from downtown. It is also possible however that he could lose approximately 65 points. With a bad 10 days he could go from 893 down to 828. All eyes will be on the Brothers to see if he can repeat and win it all again. This would be his 4th title and would probably be the most satisfying considering what he endured personally this year.
Oh, just in case you thought the Seoul team would be starting from scratch, think again. He has Nene, Bogut, Mike Miller and stud-in-the-making Marcus Thornton as potential keepers. And if he really wanted to shake it up - he could keep that Lebron guy.
Our only hope to take Woo down is to make sure he's nice and "toasty" in Las Vegas. That's right, another reason to book your ticket now, I have it on good authority that Mr. Woo (and posse) will be making a Vegas appearance for the 20th JBL draft in October.
Alright boys, there you have it. I think I have pretty much told you who will win it and who will finish 2nd through 6th. Pretty easy isn't it? Not! We really couldn't ask for a better finish could we? We still have 6 teams with title aspirations. It's not locked up quite yet for the Seoul squad but it will take a really bad week from the Brothers and a really HOT week from someone else in order to change the top of the table. Who will win it? Who misses out on the money? Two very good Fantasy teams will miss out on the top 4. They miss out on the money and they miss out on that 4th keeper (remember, teams 5th to 8th can only protect 3 guys).
I was going to take a shot at predicting 1st to 6th but it really is a crap shoot. Maybe we can all have a go on the Live Scoreboard and see who can nail it? Best of luck guys. Thanks for another memorable season. 10 days to go. Cheers.
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