Well, we're on the eve of the final week of the JBL season. I think everyone is quite excited...well except for maybe 2 teams - Arctic and Yuma. Why would they not be excited? Because they are stuck in JBL no man's land.
ARCTIC sits at 726.5 points this fine Sunday morning and is only about 100 points out of being a contender. The problem is that Arctic just hasn't shown any signs (being in the 800's) lately that they can make a last period push. In 3PT% - he's unlikely to move anywhere. ATO - 2nd - unlikely to move up. For blocks, he's in a big positional battle with Belgrade and this category clearly means more to Belgrade than it does Arctic. Nevertheless, there are 6.5 more points for Arctic here possibly. FG% - he's close. He could move up maybe 26 points if Golden and Juan shoot it sucky over the last 10 days. PTS - well, things could get interesting as Arctic is only 75 points back of Seoul and Mr. Woo is now without Bogut and maybe Marion. Can Arctic catch him and gain a big 20 points? STLS - going nowhere. REBS - there are another 15pts available if Arctic can catch Golden. This is a huge category for Golden ands Arctic could play spoiler if he catches the Showers. So, how many points can Arctic gain? Well, if my math is right, that's about 77.5 points he could move up. That would take him up to 804 - which might be good enough for a money spot if he got there - but it certainly isn't enough to win it all. As for potential keepers for next season, Arctic has Kevin Love, Jamal Crawford, Steve Nash, and maybe Michael Beasley. I think the first 3 guys are more likely than the Beez though. The most anticipated thing from the Arctic is the season ending article which we all love!
YUMA has been in no-man's land forever. Since JBL draft night, where Pat sat sharing a computer terminal with Arctic (oh, that's why they both are middling teams), the Thurmans have been right in the middle (except for that horrendous start to the season). Can we not just rest this average season on the shoulders of Al Jefferson? This stud was supposed to be the cornerstone of the franchise and instead put up 17 and 9? Oh my. I'm thinking Pat will no re-invest in Big Al every again. Rather than try and figure out how many points Yuma can gain, let's look at where Yuma can play the spoiler role. Let's start in 3PT%. Yuma is in a cluster of 5 teams all within .6 of each other. How Yuma shoots from downtown this week really could swing the balance of some teams' fortunes. Yuma is also only .002 ahead of Seoul in ATO. This would be a HUGE extra 13 pts for the Brothers if he could pass the Thurmans. YUMA has a couple of categories with direct implications on the Chilliwack squad. Currently, Yuma is % points ahead of the Wack in FG% as they are both shooting 46.3. That would be a big 13 pts for Benny. The other category in question is PTS as Yuma is only 29 points behind Benny in scoring and that would be a HUGE 20 points lost for the Wack if Yuma heated up. How many steals Yuma gets this last 10 days also affects Golden and Juan as Yuma is only 7 steals ahead of both teams right now. And finally, Yuma is 40+ rebounds ahead of Brussels and Timbo really needs those 15 points to avoid 11th place. For 2010/11, Yuma has Charlie V and Ben Wallace as good keepers....haha, kidding. How about David Lee and Brendan Haywood. What about Stephen Jackson - or do his %'s scare him away? What about the scoring of Corey Maggette for $9 dollars - that seems like a bargain doesn't it? Anyways, Pat's role of spoiler is just beginning and I hope he has enjoyed his return season to the JBL and will be back for more next year - with a laptop that doesn't have a security feature on it!!!
Oh Idaho. How's 12th place sounding? Is there a chance you can escape? Let's check it out. Currently at 322 points you are about 50 points behind 11th place. If you want to make the climb it's all about 3PT%. There are 52 points alone in 3PT% if you can gain say 0.3% points this week. Not an easy task, but when looking at your other categories, it might be your best chance. In ATO you are 0.020 behind French Lick and that could have huge ramifications on the Celtics chance at a title. That being said, I don't think you'll close the gap. Blocks - you are done. FG% - you are just % points ahead of Belgrade and you really need those 13 pts. That being said, the Zombies really want those 13 points as well to try and secure Brussels into 11th place. Should be interesting to see how both teams shoot this week. In PTS - I think you are staying right where you are. STLS - going nowhere. Rebounds - you are done like dinner. So, best case is about +65 points if you shoot lights out from downtown and pass French in ATO. My prediction - not happening. But, as my past predictions have shown, I've been wrong many a times this season. Can guys like Jennings, Dudley, J-Rich, and Matt Barnes shoot about 40% from downtown over the next 10 days? I just don't see it happening. So, with a 12th place finish the rest of the JBL will be excited to see the likes of Brook Lopez and Brandon Jennings go back into the Vegas Draft. Brook has developed into an elite center and should go for top dollar in October. No keepers for you my young Idaho squad. It looks like your miraculous money finish in 08/09 was all a mirage.
BRUSSELS - currently in 11th with 371 points and just 24 points behind the Belgrade squad. This could be the biggest battle over the last 10 days as Brussels has Kevin Durant and Tyreke Evans on his team. An 11th place finish means he can only keep one of the super studs. What a decision he would have to make. So, it's imperative for Brussels to get into 10th and get that 2nd keeper spot. So where can Brussels gain some points? How about 3PT%? With an improvement of 0.4% he could catch 3 teams and gain 39 points. Too bad Brussels didn't have any FA dollars - he could have loaded up on 3PT marksmen. But no...the money is all gone. ATO - last place and unlikely to move up to catch Juan (but feel free to). BLKS - currently 2nd place and needs to hold off Juan de Fuca. Juan loaded up with 2 more big men (Ibaka and Thabeet) in attempts to wrestle these 13 pts away from Brussels. For Timmy's sake (and mine), I hope Brussels can hold them off. FG% - done. PTS - going nowhere. STLS - unlikely to move up - unless they out-steal Juan and/or Golden by 30 steals over the next 10 days (anything is possible I guess - but I would call this one unlikely). REBS - just 40 rebounds behind Yuma this would be a HUGE, MONSTROUS, and amazing 15 points for the Muscles squad. Can he do it? Maybe, just maybe. This team has already started preparing for 2010/11 Vegas and he is hoping he will be starting his squad with Durant and Evans. Oh my, what a combo that would be . Will 10/11 be the year that the Brussels squad pops his JBL cherry?? He's currently seeking back to back titles in the baseball pool - but come on, that's baseball and no one really cares about that title. We're talking about the JBL. A league with 19 years of history and a JBL title would legitimize all other Fantasy titles. Timbo, with a combo of KD and Evans, you would be one of the favorites for the 2010/11 title. Good luck over the last 10 days. I will be watching.
BELGRADE - our rookie owner has gone through many ups and downs this season (well, mostly downs). Now, that being said, he is in the fight of his life with the guy who introduced him to the JBL. Would anything be more satisfying than beating out your sponsor into the league? It would be like chasing the hot chick at the bar and going up against your better looking buddy who is hung like a donkey and is known by everyone in the joint. If you were able to land that chick over him - you would gain instant credibility and have "status". Sure, Belgrade is staring at a 10th (maybe 9th with luck) place finish - but he really wants to say, "I beat you Timmy". So, can you Belgrade hold off the Muscles? Well, he'll have to do it without 3PT% help because the Zombie squad has chucked bricks all season (thanks to Baron de Beouf). ATO - not moving here. Blocks - another 6.5 points available if he can out-block Arctic over the next 10 days. FG% - another 13 pts available here if he can out-shoot Idaho. A very real possibility. PTS - just 50 points ahead of Idaho he needs to hold this position as losing 20 points here would REALLY hurt his 10th place finish chances. STLS - big category here as the Zombies could gain or lose 13 points. REBS - unlikely he's moving anywhere here...So, can he do it? Can he hold off his sponsor? Can he take down the man who introduced him to the JBL? He's paid his money and he is well liked amongst JBL owners - so he will be back. Can he improve on his 09/10 finish? Did he learn the ropes? Will he trash talk the league again only he kicked squarely in the nuts by the savvy veteran JBL owners. A collective nut shot does not feel nice - Tuna knows - he takes one every year it seems - and he keeps coming back. Oh, keepers, who will Belgrade bring back? How about Beno Udrih for $6 bucks? What about Ilyasova (if he was a starter)? What about James Harden - will he be starting next season? What about the big boys - Carmelo and Boozer? Are they under-valued? Some interesting choices for sure.
BOSTON - Trev has sort of been in the basement no-mans land for the last couple of weeks. He's been in the bottom 4 but he's not really associated to the others. The first thing Trev needs to do next season is change his team name. We did a podcast last October putting forward numerous team name options for Trev and not one was acceptable apparently. The Pancakes are over...they need a change. Maybe his April 28th wedding in Maui will inspire him? As for the Pancakes squad...it looks like 9th place is the final resting place - but they will need to play well to ensure this top 10 finish. The Pancakes are #1 in downtown marksmanship - although I think that French would like to see them slip. I think Trev finishes 1st in this category. ATO - this is where it gets interesting...as the Pancakes are just .003 ahead of the Showers and they are also only 0.005 behind the Fighters. This category has serious implications on two of the top teams. We'll see how the 'Cakes pass the ball over the last 10 days. BLKS - our 12th place shot blocking team will finish 12th. FG% - just 0.2% ahead of French - can he hold the spot down? PTS - unlikely to catch Brussels. STLS - just 20 steals behind Arctic - can it be done? Maybe...but it really doesn't matter does it? REBS - going nowhere. So, who does Trev bring back for 10/11? Not a lot in the cupboard really...how about Varejao? Maybe the Cavs don't bring Shaq or Big Z back and he becomes the starter? What about Tayshaun Prince? What about Channing Frye? Sure, there aren't many super stud keepers here, but I think Trev could find a couple. Maybe he becomes enlightened in Maui and finds his 2007 form where he finished 2nd in the JBL. Good luck ole buddy and congrats again on your upcoming wedding!!
So, that's leaves us with 6 teams for 4 money spots and 1 JBL title. Who has the firepower to win it all? Can anyone catch Seoul? Will the injury to Bogut affect the Brothers at all? Who is on shut-down alert that would severely hamper their teams' chances? These are the things that I will discuss in my next posting....stay tuned.
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