Well, it all comes down to the final night...
The challenge at predicting what's going to happen is not knowing who is actually going to be playing on the final night. If you look at the Golden roster it looks like I have 10 man games on Thursday. But in reality, we know that Wade is likely out; Ilyasova is out; Holiday is out; Duncan is out...so now I'm down to just potentially 6 man games. Will that be enough?
Let's check out the top 3 and where they can move.
Currently, Juan de Fuca is at 1012 points as they lost a big -13 points in ATO tonight to Chilliwack. So, let's see how many points Juan COULD get to tomorrow night...
3PT% - they are 1st and maxed out
ATO - could gain the 13pts back they lost tonight
BLK - done - no room to go up
FG% - Juan is 46.1 - French 46.1 - Arctic 46.2 - Golden 46.3 - so there is potential for movement here but they will need French, Arctic, and Golden to have really bad shooting nights
PTS - maxed out
STL -maxed out
REB - unless they can out-rebound Chwk by 80 rebounds - they are maxed out.
French Lick is currently at 1044.
3PT% - French is 36.4 and Golden is 36.8. With a really good and a really bad night - it's possible
ATO - French is 1st - maxed out
BLK - now 9 blocks behind Juan - unlikely?
FG% - French is 46.1 - Arctic 46.2 and Golden 46.3 - it's possible
PTS - not moving up
STL - 10 steals behind Golden - can Rondo, Teague, Lawson, Conley, Vasquez and others do it? Maybe.
REB - maxed out
Golden is still at 1068.
3PT% - maxed out
ATO - Golden at 1.499 and Maui at 1.507. Possible but not likely
BLK - 10 blocks behind Seoul - not happening
FG% - not moving up - barely hanging on
PTS- not moving up
STL - 1st so far with French just 10 steals behind
REB - not moving anywhere
So - what the heck does it all mean?? I have no clue. It means Golden is in the lead and French still has a good chance. He needs a lot of steals from his Guard heavy lineup - totally possible. If French can hold firm in all other categories and pass Golden in steals - the title is his. Or, if French can catch Arctic and Golden in FG% - that's another way to make it happen.
For French, he has potentially 12 man games. The question marks for his team now appear to be Carmelo as the Knicks indicate they may rest him. Gooden could be done in Milwaukee. Will Bosh play for Miami? Orlando is locked in as the 6th seed in the East and will play Indy - so does Ryan Anderson get a night off? And will Rondo play for the Celtics or will they rest his back for the playoffs. These are the great unknowns...
Whatever happens it's been a fun season. I've enjoyed the title chase. The last month has been intense and I've followed the JBL ever so closely over the last little while. Very exciting to be in the hunt again with a chance to win. We'll see what happens. I'll begin preparing the 'Season in Review' once the season is over and post it for all to read....or delete from their inbox. Good night, good season, and Good luck....
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
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